NFL Week Four Preview: Packers-Buccaneers

Let me just start with a theory I have: Jon Gruden is the next Al Davis.

Okay, he is probably never going to own a team, and he may not sue the league. But let's remember that Davis was once a young and dynamic coach who knew how to push the right buttons. He was a tremendous motivator and a cutting-edge tactician; the same can be said about Gruden.

But eventually Davis's ego got in the way of his judgment, and his overbearing and dictatorial personality drowned out all dissent that may have counseled him to better choices.

The same seems to be happening with Gruden. What other explanation does anyone have with his fascination for veteran quarterbacks?

Jeff Garcia was a Pro Bowl quarterback just last year and is a selfless team leader that already knows the offense. Why would you need another?

One can explain his decision to bring Jake Plummer into camp. After all, Plummer, while too often going off script and costing his team with big mistakes, had been pretty successful and was younger than Garcia, who had not yet proven himself with this team.

Even his courting of Brett Favre was understandable. He was also coming off a Pro Bowl season in which he was MVP runner-up. The offense was similar. The two had worked together.

And Brett Favre is, well, Brett Favre: a future first ballot Hall of Famer, arguably the best of all time. Not to mention his appeal with many of the Snowbirds and full-time Florida residents that moved to Florida from Wisconsin.

But Gruden's obvious courting of Favre was probably the start of the deterioration of his relationship with Garcia. And who can blame Jeff: All he does anywhere he goes is compete as hard as anyone on the field and win.

All he gets for it is disrespect: His star receiver calling him out (in more ways than one) publicly, his team always looking for someone better...The last straw had to be the report that Garcia was not so much hurt as being passed over in favour of Brian Griese.

Even a team player like Garcia can only take so much. The potential chemistry problems alone cancels any advantage the home field brings the Buccaneers.

Now, let's examine the on-field matchups:

• Pack's passing offense vs. Bucs passing defense: Green Bay is ranked seventh in passing yardage/game, and Tampa Bay is ranked 27th in pass defense, so this appears to be a heavy advantage for the Packers. However, one must consider Aaron Rodgers's lack of experience as a potential concern, and Tampa's stats are worse than their actual defense because they had to contend with Denver and New Orleans. The Packers' offense faced Dallas's and Minnesota's defense, but neither is as exceptional as the offenses Tampa faced. However, Jennings is one of the best deep threats and certainly better than Brandon Lloyd, who exploited the aging Ronde Barber last week. Big advantage to the Packers
• Pack's rushing offense vs. Bucs rushing defense: Green Bay is ranked 15th and Tampa's defense is ranked 20th. The Packers have actually played against two of the best teams at stopping the run and could not run much against Dallas in the fourth quarter because they were behind. Tampa faced two top-10 rushing attacks in the Falcons and Broncos, so strength of opposition is a wash. Slight advantage to the Packers
• Bucs passing offense vs. Pack's passing defense: After a 67-pass performance last week that included overtime yardage, Tampa is ranked sixth; Green Bay is ranked 22nd. This appears to be a huge advantage for the Bucs, but Green Bay faced especially potent attacks in the Lions and Cowboys; the Bucs faced porous defenses in the Saints and Falcons. However, the Packers are in their first full game without Al Harris, and the Bucs were successful against a stout defense in the Bears. Big advantage to the Buccaneers
• Bucs rushing offense vs. Pack's rushing defense: Tampa ranks 14th, Green Bay 26th. Green Bay has faced two of the league's best rushing attacks (Vikings, Cowboys) and one of its worst (Lions); Tampa faced porous defenses (Falcons, Saints) and only one of its best (Bears), mitigating this edge somewhat. Slight advantage to the Buccaneers
• Special Teams and turnovers: Tampa has a slight edge in kick returns, and the Packers have a significant edge on punt returns. The Packers have a slight edge in punt coverage and the Bucs in kick coverage. The Packers have a slight edge in punting and have only missed one field goal in many more attempts than the Bucs have had without a miss, so that is a wash. The Packers have a significant edge in the turnover department, +3 to -1, but I am sure they take more penalties. Slight advantage for the Packers

Thus, the game is fairly even. Tampa Bay is favoured by one, but I see the Packers as a superior team that has faced superior competition: In the end, both Dallas and Minnesota will finish with winning records, and only the Saints are among Tampa's opponents so far.

I am going to call the upset: 20-17 Green Bay. Here are all my picks for the week, starting with the one I am least sure of:

1. Packers
2. Browns: Will one of them be able to close?
   
3. Titans: Minnesota better than record, Titans not as good as theirs.
   
4. Eagles: McNabb fine, Westbrook and Hester hobbled or out.
5. Cardinals: Warner has better cast in Geriatric Bowl (coined by Bob Warja).
   
6. Steelers: Ravens win and prove themselves contenders.
7. Saints: Loser of this game is a pretender.
8. Cowboys: No division rivalry, is a gimmie.
9. Jaguars: Texans capable of exploiting Jags' ailing offensive line.
10. Chargers: see No. 8, above.
11. Broncos: worst 3-0 team ever, can't overlook even bad division rival.
12. Bills: not sold on them, but even in St. Louis they won't be tested.
13. Panthers: winner may lead division—no way anyone projected that.