2011 Fantasy Baseball: Draft Conditions

When drafting your team, don’t forget to take the conditions your players will be playing in when deciding who to draft. Everyone knows the big names and you can assume those players production will stay around the same. But here’s a look at some of the players and conditions that might get overlooked.

One player, who will go quickly, to avoid is a player like Jason Werth. Last season, Werth had a great year and people will be expecting similar results. However, look at the difference in the roles he will have to play.

Werth had the benefit of playing at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, a hitter's park, last year, but this year will be playing in Washington, traditionally a more pitcher-friendly park. The other thing to consider is that Werth was expected to be a middle of the lineup player who was not expected to be the main offensive option. This year in Washington though, Werth will be expected to carry the Nationals lineup offensively.

Conditions and changes can also have positive impacts on players this year. Adam Dunn, for example, will be playing all of his home games in a park that ranked number one for home runs last year, which should lead to an increase in his offensive production.

The Oakland A’s pitching staff is also an example fn some players who might have better stats based on the conditions. Oakland is one of, if not the most, pitcher-friendly parks in the majors and A’s pitching staffs have been taking advantage of it for years.

Look at taking a player like Trevor Cahill or Gio Gonzalez to round out your pitching staff this season. They will consistently keep a low ERA and with the additions the A’s have made to their offensive, look for them to pick up some more wins this season.

Besides park and lineup conditions, look at matchups the players could have during the season. Taking a chance on a starter from Toronto or Baltimore might not be your best bet because you know they will have to play the Yankees and Red Sox several times during the season.

Instead look at picking up someone like Shawn Marcum, who has the benefit of playing the National League Central this season, or a Ted Lilly. In Marcum’s case, he gets out of the AL East this year, meaning he won’t have to face the Yankees and Red Sox’s lineups and instead will get to play teams like the Astros, Pirates and Cubs. In Lilly’s case, he showed potential at end of last season after being traded. Also, Lilly will get the benefit of playing his division games in parks like Petco Park in San Diego and AT&T Park in San Francisco, both of which are extremely pitcher friendly.

Also keep in mind possible pitching matchups. One of the reasons that Adam Wainwright has been so successful is because he has ace stuff, but gets the benefit of pitching against other teams' number twos. If you are looking to round out your rotation, look to take a pitcher at the back end of a team’s rotation rather than someone who will consistently have to face Sabathia or Halladay.

By Trey Nelson

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