Slaying the Minotaur: Can Anyone in the UFC Defeat Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira?

Slaying the Minotaur: Can Anyone in the UFC Defeat Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira?

What is a fighter to do when they have been ranked as the No. 2 heavyweight in the world for the past four years? This is a question that fans of submission master Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira have been asking themselves ever since the Brazilian’s second loss to the apparently unbeatable Fedor Emelianenko.

A dominant fighter in Japan, Nogueira became the PRIDE organization’s first heavyweight champion by systematically dismantling his opponents with some of the most impressive submissions ever seen.

His uncanny ability to absorb absurd amounts of punishment, as witnessed in a memorable outing against Bob Sapp (Nogueira weighed 150 pounds less than “The Beast,” whom he defeated via armbar), proved that Nogueira was unlike any jiu-jitsu practitioner in the short but prestigious history of MMA.

Following a series of victories against MMA veterans such as Gary Goodridge, Mark Coleman, Heath Herring, Semmy Schilt, and Dan Henderson (the very man who had defeated Nogueira several years previously in RINGS), it appeared as if Nogueira would rule PRIDE’s heavyweight division with an iron fist.

Yet, unfortunately, this proved not to be the case for Nogueira, who was relentlessly assaulted by relative newcomer Fedor Emelianenko in a three-round war that resulted in Nogueira losing the PRIDE heavyweight championship.

Still, despite the fact that he would never regain the title, in the years to come, Nogueira would go on to defeat nearly every top-ranked heavyweight in the world, except Fedor, whom he would lose to for a second time in late 2004.

Highly successful, but never able to regain his position as king of the heavyweight mountain, Nogueira would not be able to escape Fedor’s shadow until the UFC bought, and subsequently closed down, PRIDE FC.

Immediately signed by Dana White, Nogueira instantly found himself a top contender in the UFC’s heavyweight division; a division that, as of July 2007, was seeing its talent disappear at an alarming rate.

With only an increasingly disenchanted Randy Couture, a virtually non-existent Andrei Arlovski, and a lackluster Tim Sylvia to keep the UFC’s longest-running division alive, the influx of new fighters from PRIDE was seen by many MMA insiders as a change for the better.

However, much to the surprise of fans and analysts alike, many of PRIDE’s most feared and respected fighters did not find success in the UFC. Heath Herring, who was the first high-profile PRIDE fighter to make the transition to the UFC, quickly found himself being defeated by the likes of Jake O’Brien and later (who could believe it) Brock Lesnar.

Similarly, Mirko “Cro cop” Filipovic, one of the most dominant combatants in the history of PRIDE, lost to French kickboxer Cheick Kongo and jiu-jitsu phenom Gabriel Gonzaga. In the light-heavyweight division, PRIDE sensation Wanderlei Silva met with a fate similar to that of his larger counterparts and lost his first match to a surprisingly reserved Chuck Liddell.

Still, Nogueira, who ironically faced Heath Herring (a nemesis of his from Japan) in his first bout, found immediate success in the UFC; winning via unanimous decision and thereby gaining his third-straight victory over “The Texas Crazy Horse.”

With no worthy challengers anywhere on the horizon, UFC fight-maker Joe Silva quickly scheduled a match between Nogueira and perennial title contender Tim Sylvia for the vacant UFC heavyweight championship, which had been abandoned by Randy Couture.

For the first time since his last battle with Josh Barnett, Nogueira was facing an opponent that could actually defeat him; an opponent that had been counted among the best fighters in the UFC for almost six years.

Yet, ultimately, “The Maine-iac” was no match for the dauntless Nogueira, who, after taking a number of punches that would have left a lesser man unconscious, managed to submit Sylvia with ease once the fight went to the ground.

With his defeat of Sylvia (who soon left the UFC and signed with Affliction), Nogueira was once again a MMA champion, albeit an interim one.

Soon after his impressive victory at UFC 81, speculation began to grow as to whom Nogueira would face in his first title defense. While many excellent fighters were considered, one name seemed to cry out for attention, that of submission guru and former champion Frank Mir.

Plagued by injuries and a continual lack of focus throughout his professional career, Mir seemed an unlikely choice to challenge Nogueira for dominance over the UFC’s heavyweight division.

The Mir/Nogueira showdown, which is set to take place in December, at UFC 92, might possibly be one of the most anticipated fights of the year. Naturally, many in the MMA world assume that Nogueira will easily pick apart the less-experienced Mir, whose most noteworthy wins have come against the likes of Tim Sylvia and Brock Lesnar.

However, it would be a wise move for such prognosticators to take into account a few facts before rushing to a decision about Mir’s chances, or lack thereof, against Nogueira.

While there is no question that Nogueira has faced more top-10 heavyweights than Mir, and has submitted the vast majority of his opponents in fairly short order, Mir is also among the most renowned submission experts in MMA and has never been submitted himself.

Of course, the same thing can also be said about Nogueira, who has never once been submitted or knocked out, for that matter, not even by his greatest rival Fedor Emelianenko. Rather, all four of Nogueira’s losses have come via judges decision after incredible showings against some of MMA’s best fighters.

Dissimilarly, Mir has suffered TKO losses against fighters whose skills are not quite on the same level as those of Fedor, Josh Barnett, and Dan Henderson (all of whom hold victories over Nogueira); fighters ranging from the ranks of the respectable (Ian Freeman and Brandon Vera) to the outright disreputable (Marcio Cruz).

On paper, Mir has already lost his upcoming fight with Nogueira. Mir’s size advantage is negligible and his submission game, while among the best in MMA, is simply not as good as that of the Brazilian.

Furthermore, it is extremely unlikely that Mir will be able to knock out Nogueira, since Mir has only scored one knockout victory in his entire MMA career. Unable to win by knockout or submission, Mir will be forced to attempt to win a decision victory, something that might prove quite difficult for the former champion, since he is not known for his conditioning.

Conversely, Nogueira is considered one of the best-conditioned athletes in MMA and is famous for constantly pressing the action of a fight by repeatedly attempting to apply his lethal submissions.

For Mir to defeat Nogueira, he will have to take the fight to the ground early on and hope that he can dominate the world’s best grappler. Mir definitely does not want to engage in a standup brawl with Nogueira, whose boxing skills, while rarely displayed, are not something that should be taken lightly by any fighter.

If Mir does somehow manage to gain a decision victory over Nogueira, he will see his marketability in the UFC soar to previously unimagined heights. If Mir fails, it might well be the final nail in the coffin of his MMA career.

So, the question remains: If Frank Mir can’t defeat Nogueira, who can?

With an abundance of good, but not necessarily great, fighters in the heavyweight division, the UFC does not have many options when it comes to finding opponents for a man who has vanquished some of the best competitors in MMA.

Perhaps the answer as to why Nogueira has not fought since winning the heavyweight title in February of this year is as simple as this: Dana White does not have any fighters in his stable that are capable of challenging the interim champion, much less capable of defeating him.

Immediately out of the running are virtual nonentities Shane Carwin, Cain Velasquez, and Jake O’Brien; their lack of experience and victories over no-name competitors put them at the bottom of the heavyweight heap in the UFC.

Brock Lesnar, the new Tank Abbot of the UFC, is also not a viable candidate to fight Nogueira since, with his excessive muscularity, he would go the way of Bob Sapp and fall prey to one of Nogueira’s vicious submissions.

In truth, there are only a handful of fighters who have the skills necessary to seriously challenge a MMA legend like Nogueira; among them are rising stars Fabricio Werdum, Gabriel Gonzaga, and (the wild card of the bunch) Brandon Vera.

Having dropped down to the light heavyweight division after experiencing two tough losses in a row, it is highly unlikely that Brandon “The Truth” Vera will ever step into the octagon with Nogueira.

However, if he does make the transition back to the weight class in which he truly belongs, a Vera/Nogueira match up would make for am interesting pairing. A complete contrast in styles, Vera’s excellent striking ability would aid him tremendously against Nogueira and his inescapable submissions.

With six of his nine MMA victories coming by way of knockout, Vera would have to employ every trick in his striking arsenal (especially his deadly head kicks) in order to keep Nogueira off balance.

If Vera could avoid being taken down, or resist the temptation to engage Nogueira in a grappling war, it is not out of the realm of possibility that he could score a TKO victory with a suddenly flurry of strikes, much like when he beat Frank Mir into a state of semi-consciousness.

A knockout win for Vera is essentially impossible, since there is almost no chance of Vera being able to do what Fedor, Cro cop, and Josh Barnett were unable to do. Still, if “Minotauro” (as Nogueira is affectionately called) were to take down Vera, even once, the sun would immediately begin to set on Vera’s chances of being the first UFC fighter to win against the interim champion.

Realistically, Vera would lose to Nogueira by submission, just as so many have before him. Even so, a match between Vera and Nogueira would be perfect for those fans who enjoy watching strikers battle grapplers.

Another fight that would be quite interesting, and one that is much more likely to happen, would be Nogueira vs. Gonzaga. Known throughout the MMA world for his phenomenal jiu-jitsu skills, Gabriel Gonzaga has quickly become a force to be reckoned with in the UFC.

Famous for nearly decapitating Mirko “Cro cop” Filipovic with a monstrous head kick, Gonzaga boasts a MMA record of 10-3, his only losses coming from Randy Couture and Fabricio Werdum, who has beaten him twice.

While not as experienced as Nogueira, Gonzaga is a highly evolved fighter that can quickly transition between striking and grappling and, in theory, would be comfortable challenging the current champion standing up or on the ground. Unlike a Nogueira/Vera matchup,  Gonzaga’s theoretical fight with Nogueira would be a grappling masterpiece: an intensely technical chess match between two jiu-jitsu masters who have never been submitted themselves.

If Gonzaga could wear him down with his solid striking ability, he would stand a chance to win against Nogueira, either by submission or judges decision. Once more, a knockout victory seems highly unlikely but, then again, many MMA analysts thought that Cro cop would be the one to knock out Gonzaga, not vice versa.

Yet, if one could look into a crystal ball and see the future of a clash between Gonzaga and Nogueira, they would undoubtedly witness Nogueira winning a unanimous decision victory over the Mundials tournament winner.

All theorizing aside, there is no question that Nogueira’s greatest competition in the UFC will come from Fabricio Werdum, another jiu-jitsu world champion and one of the most fearsome strikers in MMA. A product of the prestigious Chute Box Academy, Werdum is more than capable of trading punches with Nogueira and is in little danger of falling victim to his submissions.

Having been defeated by Nogueira once before in PRIDE (via unanimous decision), Werdum has improved tremendously as a fighter and holds impressive victories over Brandon Vera, Gabriel Gonzaga, and Aleksander Emelianenko.

Much like his potential opponent, Werdum has never been knocked out or submitted, his other two losses coming from Andrei Arlovski and Sergei Kharitonov by way of decision.

Beloved for his furious striking assaults on his opponents, it is perfectly reasonable to assume that Werdum could pummel Nogueira so unmercifully that the referee would be forced to step in and put a stop to the carnage.

However, if Werdum does not overwhelm Nogueira with his superior striking ability, then a jiu-jitsu stalemate will ensue, with neither fighter able to apply a decent submission. In this hypothetical contest, a judges' decision could go either way, depending on which fighter sets the faster pace and attempts the most submissions.

Free from the possibility of having to face Fedor for a third time (at least temporarily), Nogueira is the man to beat in the UFC’s heavyweight division. While not quite as intimidating as his Russian adversary, Nogueira stands to dominate his opponents in the UFC in much the same fashion that Fedor dominated everyone he faced in PRIDE.

With a victory over Mir practically assured, it will be somewhat difficult for Dana White and fight guru Joe Silva to find challengers that are willing to have their careers significantly slowed down by Brazil’s premiere submission specialist.

Barring a catastrophic injury (or an act of God), it is safe to say that Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira will go down in history as one of the great UFC heavyweight champions.