2011 MLB Predictions: A Season's Worth of Predictions

The preseason hasn’t even officially started yet and some fans are already making plans for the World Series (guilty!!).  In some cities baseball doesn’t really begin until October.  However between now and then there is a lot of baseball to play and that means a lot of things can happen.  Some players will shine while others will fail.  2011 will introduce the world to many new faces who will become household names in a few years, and it may be the year we say goodbye to many longtime stars who are making one last run out on the field.  With all the drama surrounding the offseason this year one thing 2011 certainly will not be is boring.  Here is a look ahead to the upcoming season, it highs, lows and conclusion.

NL MVP

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CINCINNATI - MAY 18: Prince Fielder #28 of the Milwaukee Brewers swings at a pitch during the game against the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park on May 18, 2010 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

1. 1) Prince Fielder
2. 2) Troy Tulowitzki
3. 3) Ryan Howard

In his final season in Milwaukee Fielder leads the Brewers to the division title, finishing second in the league in home runs and RBI’s.  A great second half to the season leads his charge toward an MVP award and then a HUGE payday in December.   Tulowitzky has another brilliant year in Colorado, but falls short in the MVP race.  Howard once again reaches 50+ home runs and leads the major leagues in RBI’s but with the NL East Division wrapped up seemingly by the All-Star break he’s an afterthought in the voting.

AL MVP

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MILWAUKEE - SEPTEMBER 29: Adrian Gonzales #23 of the San Diego Padres hits his 28th home run of the season in the 6th inning against the Milwaukee Brewers on September 29, 2007 at Miller Park in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. The Brewers defeated the Padres 4-3 in

1. 1) Adrian Gonzales
2. 2) Kendry Morales
3. 3) Joe Mauer

Fenway Park is very nice to Adrian Gonzales and he fits right into the Red Sox lineup; he shows he’s one of the game’s best power hitter, leads the league in doubles and almost reaches 100 extra base hits.  Morales and Mauer both have great years, Kendry coming back from an injury but it’s not enough to get past Gonzales in the MVP voting.

NL Cy Young

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SAN FRANCISCO - OCTOBER 19: Cole Hamels #35 of the Philadelphia Phillies pitches in the second inning against the San Francisco Giants in Game Three of the NLCS during the 2010 MLB Playoffs at AT&T Park on October 19, 2010 in San Francisco, California. (P

1. 1) Cole Hamels
2. 2) Roy Halladay
3. 3) Josh Johnson

Most agree the the Phillies have baseball’s best rotation, and it will show.  Cliff Lee, with his return to Philadelphia, has gotten most of the offseason attention, however the NL Cy Young vote will come down to a close race between teammates Halladay and Hamels, as both win 20 games, keep low ERA’s and strike out a number of batters.  In the end it’s Hamels who prevails as the Phillies best pitcher.  Josh Johnson, probably the best pure-stuff pitcher in the NL, finished third, lacking wins because of run support

AL Cy Young

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NEW YORK - OCTOBER 19: A.J. Burnett #34 of the New York Yankees pitches against the Texas Rangers in Game Four of the ALCS during the 2010 MLB Playoffs at Yankee Stadium on October 19, 2010 in the Bronx borough of New York City. The Rangers won 10-3. (P

1. 1) AJ Burnett
2. 2) John Lester
3. 3) Felix Hernandex

One of these years Burnett has to put it all together, doesn’t he?  Why not 2011, his best season following his worst?  Burnett opens the season as the AL pitcher of the month in April and rides the high all year long, leading the league in wins, strikeouts and opponents batting average against.  He may never do it again but Burnett has at least one brilliant season in his arm.  John Lester and Felix Hernandez follow up their great 2010 campaigns with more of the same, but are no match for AJ Burnett.

NL Rookie Of The Year

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JUPITER, FL - MARCH 02: Infielder Matt Dominguez #78 of the Florida Marlins poses during photo day at Roger Dean Stadium on March 2, 2010 in Jupiter, Florida. (Photo by Doug Benc/Getty Images)

1. 1) Matt Dominguez
2. 2) Freddie Freeman
3. 3) Dominic Brown

While Freeman has gotten most of the attention heading into the 2011 season, following in the steps of Jason Heyward will be difficult.  Freeman will struggle at times and not be consistent enough.  Florida has a history of rookies playing substantial parts of their teams and Dominguez will be no different.  Brown will get a lot more at-bats than some expect, and he will play fairly well, but it’s Dominguez who will play everyday and put up the necessary numbers to take home the award.

AL Rookie Of The Year

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TORONTO, ON - SEPTEMBER 28: Kyle Drabek #4 of the Toronto Blue Jays throws agianst the New York Yankees during an MLB game at the Rogers Centre September 28, 2010 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Abelimages/Getty Images)

1. 1) Kyle Drabek
2. 2) Jeremy Helickson
3. 3) Mike Moustakas

Young pitching rules the AL East, with Drabek and Helickson shining tall.  Both pitchers live up to expectations but it’s Drabek who outshines Helickson.  Perhaps a no-hitter is in the mix.  Moustakas shows he’s the real deal in Kansas City, but only after a slightly-before mid-season call-up, and does not get enough at-bats to really make his dent.

NL Comeback Player Of The Year

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ARLINGTON, TX - OCTOBER 9: Carlos Pena #23 of the Tampa Bay Rays hits a deep fly out to right field to end the Ray's fourth inning with two runners on base against the Texas Rangers during game three of the ALDS at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington on Octobe

1. 1) Carlos Pena
2. 2) Carlos Beltran
3. 3) Jimmy Rollins

After batting under .200 for the entire season in 2010 Pena, on a one-year deal in Chicago, puts it behind him and plays great for the Cubs, leading them to a second half charge that almost ends in a playoff spot.  Beltran goes to right field and performs like the Carlos of old, but a mid-season trade to an AL contender ends his chance to win the award.  Rollins has the second best season of his career, but is overlooked because it’s the pitching in Philly that truly shines.

AL Comeback Player Of The Year

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BOSTON - MAY 06: Dustin Pedroia #15 of the Boston Red Sox celebrates with teammates in the dugout after he scored in the sixth inning against the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim on May 6, 2010 at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Elsa/Getty

1. 1) Dustin Pedroia
2. 2) Kendry Morales
3. 3) Grady Sizemore

It was difficult picking just one Red Sox player as a number could be in line to “comeback”.  However picking a former MVP was too easy.  He should rebound nicely and put up big-time numbers for a small player.  Morales has a great comeback season, being in the MVP chase in the second half, but playing out west will hurt him in both categories.  Sizemore plays his first full season it what seems like forever, and plays well but after microfracture surgery he is not the same player he was before.

NL Most Surprising Player

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SAN FRANCISCO - AUGUST 12: Alfonso Soriano #12 of the Chicago Cubs bats against the San Francisco Giants during an MLB game at AT&T Park on August 12, 2010 in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Jed Jacobsohn/Getty Images)

1. 1) Alfonso Soriano
2. 2) Nate McClouth
3. 3) Pablo Sandavol

All three players listed were, once upon a time, very good players.  Different issues surround each player but it’s Soriano who has the biggest hill to climb.  He will never put up 40/40 or even 30/30 again, but there’s still some fire in that bat and life in the body.  One more good season from Soriano before proving age, whatever he truly is, has caught up to him.

AL Most Surprising Player

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ARLINGTON, TX - APRIL 05: Catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia #21 of the Texas Rangers celebrates a walkoff RBI against the Toronto Blue Jays in the bottom of the ninth inning on Opening Day at Rangers Ballpark on April 5, 2010 in Arlington, Texas. The Ranger

1. 1) Jarrod Saltalmacchia
2. 2) Mark Reynolds
3. 3) Jim Thome

A move to the AL is good for Reynolds as he cuts down on his strikeouts, but still does it more than anyone else in history.  His power and average are both better than last year, but it’s the Red Sox catcher who surprises everyone.  Saltalmacchia will never reach his first-round potential but will prove to be a fairly decent backstop and put up nice numbers while being overlooked in a loaded lineup.

NL Most Disappointing Player

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ATLANTA - SEPTEMBER 15: Chipper Jones #10 of the Atlanta Braves against the Washington Nationals at Turner Field on September 15, 2010 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

1. 1) Chipper Jones
2. 2) Tim Lincecum
3. 3) Jayson Werth

The NL has a lot more potential for disappointing players than the AL and the list could go a lot further.  Chipper Jones is either going one of two ways; either he has one last burst of life in his tank and plays extremely well or his knee doesn’t heal enough and he’s no longer the player he was and retires gracefully before the all-star break.  Tim Lincecum is a wonderful pitcher, a world series and playoff hero but all the extra work and shorter offseason is bound to catch up to the young ace.  He won’t have a bad season by most standards but by his, yes.  Werth could easily be the top of this list as there’s no way he can live up to the contract he signed, being that he’s being paid like an MVP who’s never been anything more than a second or third fiddle.  He will play well, but not $126 million well.

AL Most Disappointing Player

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TORONTO - SEPTEMBER 23: Jose Bautista #19 of the Toronto Blue Jays bats during the game against the Seattle Mariners on September 23, 2010 at Rogers Centre in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. The Blue Jays defeated the Mariners 1-0. (Photo by Brad White/Getty

1. 1) Jose Bautista
2. 2) Derek Jeter
3. 3) Manny Ramirez

I was tempted to list Jeter as number one, seeing that I don’t think last year was an aberration and he will remain at that level or continue falling, but there is no way Jose Bautista puts up that type of season again.  A 30 homer, 100 RBI season would be a disappointment after last year.  Until he proves he is at least somewhat as good as last year showed he will remain a question mark.  Tampa Bay is going to be glad it’s not paying Manny more, as his days in the league are numbered and he’s a shell of his former self.

Final National League Standings

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MILWAUKEE - APRIL 10: Members of the Milwaukee Brewers mob teammate Rickie Weeks #23 after Weeks scored the winning run in the bottom of the 9th inning against the Chicago Cubs during the Opening Day game on April 10, 2009 at Miller Park in Milwaukee, Wis

1. 1) Phillies
2. 2) Braves (wildcard)
3. 3) Marlins
4. 4) Nationals
5. 5) Mets

Atlanta made a lot of improvements and will be a competitive time, just not for the division crown.  The Phillies will run away with the division and Atlanta will have to settle for the wild card.  The Marlins play .500 ball throughout the year but it isn’t enough to catch either the Phillies or Braves.  The Nationals will remain as they have been, bad, but the Mets will bottom out this year and lose in the triple digits.

Central

1. 1) Brewers
2. 2) Reds
3. 3) Cubs
4. 4) Cardinals
5. 5) Astros
6. 6) Pirates

Baseball’s most interesting and overall competitive division.  At times it looks as if any of the top four teams could win it with only the Astros and Pirates showing as doormats.  Injuries and perhaps a big trade play a role in St. Louis' demise.  The Reds show last year was not a fluke and make a strong push throughout the year, but it’s the Brewers and Cubs that catch lightning in a bottle and get into a heated race.  The Brewers are better though and once the Cubs fall behind in early September they lose confidence and continue falling.

West

1. 1) Rockies
2. 2) Giants
3. 3) Padres
4. 4) Dodgers

The toughest NL division to predict as all teams could finish first OR last.  The Giants rode high last year but the long trip through October will hurt them as someone once famously said “it gets late early around here”.  The Rockies will win the division with a better second half than first, as they’re accustomed to, while the Padres lose some ground from last year before rebounding next year.  The Dodgers, rarely at the bottom of their division, will see it this year.  Mattingly will have better years as a manager.

Final American League Standings

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MINNEAPOLIS - OCTOBER 07: Fans enter the stadium before the game between the Minnesota Twins and the New York Yankees for game two of the ALDS on October 7, 2010 at Target Field in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)

1. 1) Red Sox
2. 2) Yankees
3. 3) Rays
4. 4) Orioles
5. 5) Blue Jays

The Yankees will not roll over and play dead but they simply do not have enough fire-power, either at the plate or on the mound, to catch Boston.  After losing many key players the Rays regress, but not as fair as some might think.  They still have a lot of talent and more coming.  The Orioles show some fight under Showalter but they’re in the wrong division to compete.  Too many changes in Toronto and a lot to live up to on offense; they don’t show up this year.

Central

1. 1) Twins
2. 2) White Sox (wildcard)
3. 3) Tigers
4. 4) Royals
5. 5) Indians

The Twins are the Twins, winning their seventh division title in ten seasons.  After an offseason of going “all-in” according to owner Jerry Reinsdorf the ChiSox win 90+ games but still have to fight and claw the last two weeks of the season to make it in ahead of New York.  Detroit stays competitive in Jim Leyland’s swan song but finish just over .500 and miss the playoffs, while the Royals and Indians show they are both a ways away from truly competing.

West

1. 1) Angels
2. 2) Rangers
3. 3) Athletics
4. 4) Mariners

The Angels will rebound from last year’s miserable showing to win the west, while Texas proves it’s not as good as advertised in last year’s world series appearance.  They spent too much time and money upgrading an offense when they should have been looking for someone to replace Cliff Lee.  Billy Beane believes he’s worked his magic once again in Oakland, and that might be true, but Beane’s “magic” has yet to win a playoff series, even when he had three of the best pitchers in baseball.  The Mariners are just bad.

The Playoffs

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PHILADELPHIA - OCTOBER 23: The San Francisco Giants celebrate defeating the Philadelphia Phillies 3-2 and winning the pennant in Game Six of the NLCS during the 2010 MLB Playoffs at Citizens Bank Park on October 23, 2010 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (

NLDS 

Phillies over Rockies

In an another playoff matchup between these two the Phillies out-pitch and out-hit the Rockies in a short contest and move on to the second round.

Brewers over Braves

Milwaukee’s got something special going on.  Atlanta looks good after game one but the Brewers rebound and take the series in a decisive fifth game.

ALDS

Red Sox over White Sox

In a surprisingly good playoff series it’s the experience of Boston’s pitching, and mostly that of John Beckett, in game five that takes the series.

Twins over Angels

The Twins are healthy going into October and finally win a playoff series, defeating the Angels in four games and moving on to the LCS against Boston.

NLCS 

Phillies over Brewers

The Brewers magical ride ends in Philadelphia.  Prince Fielder hits a long home run off Roy Oswalt in game five, but it’s his only hit of the series and the Brewers only run in the clinching game for Philadelphia.  Roy Halladay gets his first post-season hardware in the series.

ALCS

Red Sox over Twins

The Twins push this one to the brink, managing to take a 3-1 series lead before the Red Sox wake up and dominate the final three games and win the series in Fenway with JD Drew winning the MVP.

The World Series

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PHILADELPHIA - OCTOBER 29: The Philadelphia Phillies celebrate their 4-3 win against the Tampa Bay Rays during the continuation of game five of the 2008 MLB World Series on October 29, 2008 at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by

A great World Series to complete a great season.  Phillies vs. Boston nearly goes the distance in a well-played, well-pitched series that goes back and forth.  They will make it back to Fenway for game six but the Boston fans will end up watching the Phillies team smoother Roy Halladay on the mound as "The Doctor" finally accomplishes his dream, striking out JD Drew to end it all.  World Series MVP: Roy Halladay