College Football Picks 2008 Week Five, Part Three: Mitch’s Predictions

Today is the last day I can say I'm 50-39-1 against the spread, and that's because there are two games tonight (see Part One of my Week Five picks). I'm feeling particularly good about this week, and think I will only be stating even better numbers in the future.

Some weeks are tougher than others, and, while we can always expect our share of surprises, history shows that as the season goes on the stronger my picks get. This isn't a recent trend by any means as it's been the same way for the last 10 years-plus I've published my picks. While I may pick more games than I used to, it has just meant more opportunities.

As a lot of teams start conference play, it will be interesting to see where the lines are when some of the traditional rivals square off. For now, we're still wading through the mix of traditional games and some not-so traditional games, but it's all College Football to us. Let's look at some more matchups.

Duke -7 Vs. Virginia (Saturday 9/27/08, 12 EST) 1 Unit

Before the season started, I had Duke as one of my teams I thought would be greatly improved. The hiring of David Cutcliffe to run the show was a really lucky situation, and while I don't see the Blue Devils contending for a National Title anytime soon, I do see them competing for a bowl berth and being more competitive on a week-to-week basis.

Virginia was a surprise to a lot of people last season and I was one of the surprised. While many look at Virginia's overall record last year, I think it's more important to note that the bulk of the Cavaliers' wins were by five points or less, and perhaps they've lost more than that many points' worth of talent.

Virginia has yet to cover a spread this season, and I don't look for it to happen this week. When it has played against D-1 competition, it's been a blowout loss, losing by 45 and 35 points. Duke, on the other hand, has covered both times out and I see no reason why it doesn't cover again this week.

The home team is 6-2 against the spread in this series. Also in Duke's favor is that the Blue Devils are 5-1 against the spread following a game in which they covered and 4-1 against the spread when playing teams with a losing record. For the Cavaliers, they are just 2-5 against the spread in their last seven games and 6-14 against the spread in their last 20 road games.

While I think coach Al Groh did a fantastic job with the Cavs last year and I do think Mikell Simpson may be the most underrated back in the country, I think there is a new attitude in Durham, and the Dukies look like winners to me.

Maryland +10 1/2 at Clemson (Saturday 9/27/08, 12 EST) 1 Unit

I have been extremely critical of both of these teams, and the Terps made me pay for it last I saw them when they hosted Cal. While Maryland may not have the talent needed to win, Clemson is just a classic case of underachievers playing for an underachieving head coach. Tommy Bowden has done a great job of convincing Clemson alumni and administrators, but he hasn't done much to convince me that he and his ball club are a good place to put my money.

Clemson looked soft against Alabama, especially against the run, and Maryland looked very strong running the ball against Cal, which to me is a good omen for Ralph Friedgen's Terrapins.

While neither team has any strong positive trend to turn to and both have many negative trends that pretty much offset each other, there are some very strong recent trends regarding this series. Maryland is 6-2 against the spread in the teams' last eight meetings, and the road team has covered the last four in a row. Maryland has also covered in each of its last four visits to Death Valley. This is a traditionally low-scoring game, and I feel pretty comfortable with Maryland and the double-digit points.

See the rest of Mitch's Week Five, Part Three Picks and more at The College Football Place