The Top 25 Most Promising NBA Prospects Under 25
Yesterday was Rajon Rondo's 25th birthday.
Rondo's a grizzled NBA veteran at this point—64 playoff games in his five-year career, an NBA championship ring, and record assist totals on the daily. Yesterday he was easily one of the best five players under 25 (I had him No. 3). Today it's time to re-evaluate.
We're frequently asked to name the best players in the game, and I'm about done commenting on the LeBron-Kobe debate. I think most of us can recognize the NBA's top performers over the years.
We have the stats. We can crunch the numbers. We're able to put things squarely in an historical perspective. In a way we know they "who they are" and "what they can be". It's more difficult projecting which of today's players will have the NBA's best résumé 10 years from now; players who don't already have a vast body of work in the pros.
While not all of these guys are "prospects" in the literal sense of the word—we have a scoring champion, MVP candidates, some ROY hardware—this list is not meant to be the best 25 players right now. It's an opportunity to take a look at the young guns of the league, specifically those under the age of 25
Perhaps the best way to describe these 25 ballers would be to say they're guys you'd want to build your team around for the next decade. And, unlike Bill Simmons' "Trade Value" column, we won't factor in the value of their current contracts.
With the All-Star gathering now firmly in the rear view mirror, this seems like a good time to reflect on the state of the league's youngsters. So, without further ado (after much ado), the NBA's 25 most promising prospects under 25...
No. 25: Amir Johnson
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He's no longer playing on a palatable contract, but there's no denying his productivity. He's already sporting a near 19.0 PER (if you like that sort of thing), and chipping in 15 points and 10 rebounds per 40 minutes despite an offense that almost never runs through him.
Unfortunately, Johnson can't seem to stay on the court long enough to consistently reach those totals. He averages over seven fouls per 40 minutes, and much of it is a result of being pushed around in the post. He needs to add body strength to improve his leverage, instead of frequently going for blocks and finding himself out of position.
He's only 23, and if he can improve his body composition and offensive game he might end up higher on this list. At worst, he's a bruising interior force who can rebound and block shots (more than one a game despite playing basically a single half every night)—and in the NBA you can take that to the bank.
No. 24: Jrue Holiday
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The league's youngest player last year, Holliday had an up and down freshman campaign. He was turnover prone, and despite showing potential as a distributor, wasn't very aggressive on the offensive end. One year later he's averaging 16 points, 5 rebounds and 7 assists per 40 minutes, while getting a steal and a half on the defensive end. The Sixers have been playing well of late and it's no coincidence that Jrue has been seeing some of his most effective minutes, shooting 48/40/89 and cutting down on turnovers.
Holliday is still a project at this point, but he is only 20 and has already shown the ability to improve his game year-over-year. He's logging the second-most minutes on a surging Sixers squad and earning more minutes than Lou Williams—a guy who almost made this list himself at age 23. Once they get that time sharing situation figured out (tactically or by trade), we'll know whether he can run the show on a full time basis.
No. 23: JaVale McGee
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7'0" and 250 pounds with an enormous wing span, McGee has a body many centers could only wish for. But that's not what makes him so special—if you've ever seen him run out on a fast break, it's clear he's not the lumbering center of your father's NBA.
McGee has the speed and long strides to beat guards down the court, and is an incredible leaper who can finish above the rim. He's raw offensively, but has worked on a baby hook that is steadily improving. Having just turned 23, he's averaging an impressive 14 points and 11 rebounds and four blocks per 40 minutes (in fact, he lead the NBA in that stat last season and is in the top five this year).
And he still has upside, particularly on the defensive end where he tends to go for the block and/or commit goal-tending violations far too often for someone with such quickness and leaping ability.
This year's Wizards have two other players—John Wall and Andray Blatche—who qualify for this list and have usage rates in the 20's (i.e. the percentage of team possessions the person uses a game normalized across the league), and another former one in Rashard Lewis. This has meant he's touching the ball less on the offensive end, but he's also improved his FG percentage to a respectable 55 percent.
The knock on JaVale has always been his basketball IQ. Strange, because both his father (former Blazer Will Montgomery) and his mother (Pamela McGee) played at the professional level. If he can work on adding some strength and develop a 10-15 foot jumper he will be a nightmare for teams around the league to deal with.
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No. 22: O.J. Mayo
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A year ago he would have been considerably higher on this list, but at 23 and going through his worst season in the pros, he'll have to settle as one of the late additions.
Much of his decline in production is due to dwindling minutes—he's fighting for time with off-season pickup Tony Allen and an unexpectedly capable Sam Young—and he continues to show flashes of brilliance. Once considered a potential number one pick, he's got range on his jump shot and is a good ball handler and passer.
Unfortunately, he's not terribly efficient—he's shooting an abysmal 36 percent on jump shots from 10-23 feet. His year-over-year numbers are down almost across the board from his impressive rookie and solid sophomore campaign. Typically, players who succeed long term in the NBA make the jump in their third season, but O.J.'s numbers have actually declined across the board.
A change of scenery is the likely end game here since the Grizzlies just paid their franchise player (Rudy Gay) and gave Mike Conley Jr. a huge contract. In the right situation he could consistently give you 20-5-5, and that's why he'll have a place in the league for years to come.
No. 21: Michael Beasley
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Beasley is still only 22 and early this season seemed to start coming into his own. He put up monster numbers in college and was expected to do a lot for the Heat as the number two pick in the draft, but was stuck on a team with an already established alpha-dog scorer (Dwayne Wade). When he was traded to Minnesota in the off-season to make space for Miami's big three it may have been a blessing in disguise.
Starring for a struggling Timberwolves team he's been putting up 24 points, 7 rebounds, almost 3 assists a steal and a block per 40 minutes. He's also shooting an impressive 38 percent from the three point line this season—and if he could improve his overall 46 percent accuracy on field goals he'd be an incredibly efficient scorer.
Beasley's two major struggles are consistency and turnovers. He's averaging three per 40 minutes, which isn't terrible for a player with a usage rate in the mid twenties (a quarter of team possessions end with the ball in Beasley's hands) but is worrisome when you consider he's 6'10" and should get the ball in good position to score. This is probably more of a reflection on the Timberwolves, who spent two top 10 picks on PGs a couple seasons ago and may have neither player on their roster after this season.
While he can play at both the three and four he is a match-up nightmare as a power forward with range on his shot, so the more burn he can get there the better it should be for his development. Still, he's an under average rebounder for his size and is too willing to settle for the jump shot. If he can start taking the ball to the hoop more and getting to the line (where he's also pretty efficient) he could certainly become one of the league's elite scorers.
No. 20: Brook Lopez
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With the exception of points, Lopez's per-game numbers are down across the board this season in New Jersey. But the premium on serviceable 7-footers has never been so high in the NBA and he certainly qualifies. While some may question his ceiling, he has proven capable of putting up 20 and 10 on any given night—something that originally had the Nets thinking he would be a major asset in luring Carmelo Anthony to New Jersey.
Unfortunately for Lopez despite his size he's shooing only .475 percent from the floor this season. This is largely due to a significant change he's made this season, moving away from the basket on offense. He's now taking less than a third of his attempts at the rim where he's most effective. Perhaps even more disappointing is the fact that he's dropped from almost 10 rebounds per 40 minutes to under —almost inconceivable given his size and the amount of time he's on the court.
At age 24 there is some question as to whether the already crafty Lopez has hit his performance ceiling, but he's a hard worker and smart enough to learn where he's most effective.
No. 19: Brandon Jennings
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The voices questioning Jennings' decision to skip college and play professionally in Europe have certainly quieted. Jennings scored 55 points in leading the bucks to a win over the Golden State Warriors early in his rookie season—an outburst hat included a 29 point third quarter, which broke Lew Alcindor's team record.
While Jennings is no longer slipping under the NBA radar, he has his shortcomings. He's a horribly inefficient shooter, making only 37 percent of his attempts—particularly disconcerting for someone who gets to the rim for a quarter of his shots. Out of players averaging at least 30 minutes per game, he has the second lowest FG percentage on shots at the rim (50.4 percent). And he actually shoots better on longer jumpers, converting .374 percent on 3-point shots and only .370 percent on two point shots in his first season.
Jennings' incredible speed is perhaps his greatest asset, along with his desire to compete and commitment to improving his game, but his lithe frame gives him a disadvantage against the frequently bigger and stronger point guards coming into the league. His talent, however, is undeniable, and in racking up 19 points, four boards, six dimes and three "whoa what was that" plays per 40 minutes he certainly has gained the respect of players around the league.
No. 18: Roy Hibbert
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Coming out of college, the knock on Big Boy Roy was his average strength and athleticism. Since then he's shown he can effectively use his size to frustrate opposing big men and at 24 still has some room for growth.
7'2" and 280 pounds, there aren't many players in the league who can match up with Hibbert's size. Unfortunately he shoots an unacceptable 45 percent from the field and still gets beaten down the court in transition too often. If he could improve his shooting and continue to develop his conditioning, he could quickly find himself in the top tier of NBA centers—he's already averaging 19 points, 11 boards, 3 assists and 2.5 blocks per 40 minutes.
The Pacers aren't much of a contender right now, so they lean heavily on Danny Granger for their offense. Hibbert also doesn't have to compete for minutes right now, as the team doesn't really have a second option at center. While there's no question he's made big strides after his first two years in the league, it's a bit of a warning sign that he's only earning 28 minutes per game on a rebuilding team.
Fortunately for Hibbert it is largely due to conditioning and subsequent match-up issues, so the things holding him back are also items he has control over going forward.
No. 17: Serge Ibaka
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Ibaka is perhaps the best example of upside on this list. At age 21, and having already shown great development since entering the league, he's got lots of time to translate his physical ability into consistent performance on the court. He's seen his points increase to almost 10 a game in his second season, and has improved is true shooting percentage (a metric that factors in 3-point shots and free throws) to a very efficient 60 percent.
While both his parents played at the professional level in Congo, Ibaka grew up in difficult circumstances that made his emergence in the NBA anything but a sure-thing. A war ravaged country and a lack of player development certainly hurt him in his transition, and he didn't speak any English before coming into the league.
And while his per-game stats are not particularly impressive (9 points, 7 rebounds and 2 blocks), when extrapolated over 40 minutes you can see how increased experience—and controlling his fouling—will be key for Ibaka: 14 points, 11 rebounds and 3 blocks despite seeing very little of the ball on a team clearly run through Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook.
I've chosen a dunk contest photo here because I think it illustrates the best of Serge Ibaka—incredible athleticism for a PF/C in a body that does not look like it will break down as so many other young centers have. For goodness sake, he was able to dunk legitimately from the free throw line at 6'10". Where does it end?
No. 16: Greg Monroe
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As the seventh pick in last year's draft, the 20-year-old 6'11" 250 pound Monroe was saddled with big expectations on a would-be-kind-to-call-them-below-average Pistons team. And Monroe has delivered, earning increased minutes every month this season, and averaging 11 points, 9 rebounds and a 1.5 steals in January. He's also shooting an efficient 59 percent from the field in 2011.
A great interior passer, the knock on Monroe has always been that he might not be physical enough for the NBA game. Scouts also questioned his motor, but this was more a reflection on his laid-back style (doesn't always look like he's working hard) than it is on his ability to compete and produce given lots of minutes.
Monroe is the fourth highest true center prospect on this board and is expected to climb the ranks of NBA big men quickly—becoming the next in a line of prolific Georgetown bigs that includes Patrick Ewing, Dikembe Mutombo and Alonzo Mourning. To do so, he'll have to work on his limited array of offensive moves in the post and continue to develop his rebounding and defensive shot-blocking abilities. If this season is a snippet of what's in store for Pistons fans they have a lot to be excited about.
No. 15: DeJuan Blair
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We know they don't count in the record books, but DeJuan Blair's two appearances in the Rookie-Sophomore Challenge have to count for something. At the very least, he's shown he can perform against some of the best young talent around the league by averaging 25.5 points and 18.5 rebounds in his career.
Blair is also already playing big minutes for a top-tier team in the Spurs. He's living proof (amongst others) that the "tweener" status for SF/PF is not (or at least shouldn't be) the kiss-of-death for NBA talent scouts.
Despite monster numbers extrapolated over 40 minutes (15 points, 13 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 steals and a block), he's only really playing 22 minutes a game for a deeply talented Spurs team. That factors out to 9 points, 7 rebounds, an assist and a steal a game. Especially worrisome is his 49 percent FG percentage—for a guy that takes almost 60 percent of his shots at the rim and 80 percent within 10 feet (actually down from last season), he needs to be extra efficient from that distance. He's shooting only 28 percent on jumpers between 10 and 23 feet in '10-'11, a far cry from the 46 percent he shot last year.
These are not particularly impressive stats considering some of the names above him on this list, but his age (21) and ability to play important minutes stand as the best evidence Blair belongs in the top 15.
No. 14: Derrick Favors
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Favors is the youngest player in the league this year, which makes the Kevin Garnett comparisons more plausible for the 6'10" power forward. Coming out of Georgia Tech it was thought he might have the most upside in a class that featured John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins and Evan Turner.
A big bodied 19-year-old with a 7'4" wingspan and impressive athleticism (he showcased a 35.5 inch vertical at the 2010 NBA Draft combine) you can see why he's regarded so highly. Based on his size and skill set he's projected as a two way player who can alter shots in the paint and slam it home at the other end. Like Serge Ibaka, he has a body type that can handle running in transition and the day-to-day grind of the NBA season.
It has been a slow transition for Favors, playing under 20 minutes a game and averaging 6 points, 5 rebounds and a block a contest. The Nets knew he was a project, and the fact that he was mentioned as the key piece of a potential Carmelo Anthony trade is evidence other teams in the league still feel he can develop into an all-star caliber player. Look for Favors to make big strides in the coming years, eventually becoming the double-double machine teams are expecting.
BREAKING NEWS: Favors appears to be heading to Utah, where he'll serve as a backup to the Paul Millsap/Al Jefferson/Mehmet Okur rotation. This could be a great development for him, as he won't have to contribute immediately and can learn from some veteran big men on a defensive minded team.
No. 13: Andrew Bynum
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If it seems like he's been around forever, it's because he has. Bynum was only 18 when he was drafted and is now in his sixth season with the Lakers. At only 23 he's been a constant presence on this list because of his incredible size and defensive ability.
While Kobe has been the Lakers' unquestioned leader for years now, Bynum has been part of what makes them such a difficult team to beat. At 7'0" and 285 pounds, you can't push him off the block and can't jump over him for rebounds. His numbers are down from previous highs, but he's still averaging 18 points, 12 boards and 2.5 blocks per 40 minutes. This is especially impressive because he's spent December and January coming back from knee surgery and was obviously not at the top of his game.
Bynum would be much higher on this list except for that aforementioned injury history. Guys who get injured when they are young, especially big men, don't tend to get healthier over time (Big Z being an exception). However even playing only two thirds of a season on average hasn't tempered interest in him from around the league, evidenced by his role in numerous trade scenarios over the past couple months.
It's very doubtful the Lakers would ever move him, despite his injury history and lack of an interior passing game. His size, soft hands and increasingly polished post moves (a career 57 percent shooter) are key to the team's success—and having him to clean up the glass when Kobe decides to go all machine-gunner doesn't hurt either.
No. 12: Tyreke Evans
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'Reke seems to divide league experts as few players can. He had an incredible rookie campaign that earned him ROY honors...but he was stat stuffing on an awful team that hasn't gotten much better. Most people still don't think he's a point guard and would be better at shooting guard, but how do you allow him to flourish when he clearly needs the ball in his hands? It also seems like he may be somewhat out of shape this season, which brings into question his motivation to crack the top-tier of NBA talent.
That being said, he pulled off a 20, 5 and 5 in his first season in the pros. Even on this exclusive list, not many players have that sort of upside. Unfortunately his stats are down this season, with the exception of small increases in blocks and steals, and it's not because he's been working DeMarcus Cousins into the offense. In fact, Evans is shooting an extra three per game this season—and has seen his 46 percent average on field goals drop to 41 percent despite an uptick in 3PT efficiency.
Can Tyreke perform at this level on a good team right now? Doubtful. But he's physically talented enough that if he decides to work on his jump shot and not depend on getting to the rim or the free throw line for his points it could happen. He's got good size and strength, and enough quickness to get by defenders with his first step.
Evans may be the perfect example of a tweener guard, but if he's committed to greatness he can find similar success on a playoff caliber team—and then the whole league will be on notice.
No. 11: Stephen Curry
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Did the Davidson Wildcats luck out or what? Curry could have put up 30 a game anywhere but went to Davidson and became a sensation, steering a Cinderella team to some impressive seasons out of the Southern Conference. But there were major questions around Curry coming out of college, namely that at 6'3'' he's undersized for a shooting guard and did not seem to possess the ball handling ability to be an NBA point guard—and might not be able to guard either position at the professional level.
Curry may never be the vocal leader on any team and may not distribute the ball like some of the elite PGs in the league, but he's a volume scorer with the ability to get his teammates involved.
Let's take a look at the list of players who posted 50/40/90 averages (FG/3PT/FT percentages) in a season:
Larry Bird (‘86,’87), Mark Price (‘88), Reggie Miller (‘93), Steve Nash (2005, 2007, 2008), Jose Calderon (2007), and Dirk Nowitzki (2008)
Other then Jose Calderon, you're looking at some of the best shooters of the last 25 years. Now let's take a moment and compare the average stats of some current elite PGs over their first two NBA seasons using some basic metrics to see how Curry stacks up:
| Player | PTS | AST | REB | STL | TO | FG% | 3PT% | FT% |
| D. Rose | 18.8 | 6.1 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 2.7 | 48.2 | 24.5 | 77.7 |
| C. Paul | 16.7 | 8.4 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 43.4 | 31.8 | 83.2 |
| D Williams | 13.5 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 2.4 | 43.9 | 36.9 | 73.6 |
| R. Rondo | 8.5 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 45.5 | 23.5 | 62.9 |
| S. Curry | 17.8 | 5.9 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 46.9 | 42.9 | 90.9 |
| Player | PTS | AST | REB | STL | TO | FG% | 3PT% | FT% | AVG Rank |
| D. Rose | 1 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 3.25 |
| C. Paul | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2.375 |
| D Williams | 4 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 3.375 |
| R. Rondo | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 3.75 |
| S. Curry | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2.25 |
Didn't see that coming did you? Based on these metrics you can make the argument Curry has had a better first two years in the league than the top four current PGs.
Curry is a threat to enter this club every year, and his shooting prowess and basketball IQ make him a sure-fire contributor for years to come.
No. 10: DeMarcus Cousins
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Is DeMarcus Cousins the next Tim Duncan? He's far more often compared to another, less flattering big man: Derrick Coleman.
He's been described as a head case with potential weight issues, which doesn't bode well for the Duncan comparison, but a big man like Cousins doesn't come around too often. 6'11" and 270 pounds, he's almost ideal size for a center, but what makes him so rare is how polished he is around the basket and his ability to dish from the post. We've seen a couple of near-triple-doubles from DeMarcus in his first season, which is a sign of things to come.
First, the bad news. In addition to the fighting and questionable attitude Cousins has been horribly inefficient, shooting only 43 percent from the field. That's totally unacceptable for someone with his size and skill. His November-December numbers are partly to blame, when he was making closer to 40 percent of his shots, but he's regressed again in February. His turnover numbers are also ridiculous, averaging three this season and four a game so far in February.
The good news is that in 2011 he's been averaging 17 points, 9 rebounds and 2 assists in 30 minutes a game—which factors out to around 22/12/3 per 40. At 20 years old this is a great sign of things to come. Cousins upside is comparable to his teammate at Kentucky John Wall, so Sacramento may have gotten great value picking at No. 5. Cousins definitely has a passion for the game—even if he has trouble controlling it—and I'm a bit more bullish that the youngster will mature and continue to work hard on his game.
No. 9: Al Horford
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He's got the sixth-highest PER among players under 25, so you could argue he should be ranked higher on this list. Then again, he probably doesn't have the upside of some people lower on the list, including DeMarcus Cousins. But his current performance already has him as one of the best young rebounders in the game, so it was impossible to leave him outside the Top 10.
Horford's currently averaging 16 points and 10 boards a game, and has thrown in almost four assists a steal and a block for good measure. He's also having his most efficient season, shooting 57 percent from the field and 82 percent from the line. Throw in his low turnover rate despite playing a load of minutes, and you see why he's Mr. Dependable on an up-and-down Hawks team.
While his size is not ideal and he's not spectacular at any one part of the game, he contributes in so many ways that it's hard to criticize what he provides on the floor. He's an above average defender despite often facing tough match-ups down low, and his even-tempered demeanor belies a competitive fire that makes him a consistent contributor.
No. 8: Rudy Gay
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Rudy Gay's projections actually dropped when he went to college, having a strong yet unassuming first two years at Connecticut. But he's proven that his talents translate at the next level, and has averaged 18 plus points and 5+ rebounds each of the past 4 seasons.
It was a real blow to the Grizzlies when news came that he would be out three-four weeks during this crucial playoff run. Gay is a big part of a talented Grizzlies squad, which is assuredly why he was given a (ludicrous) five-year $80 million extension over the summer. He's having the best season of his career, with his stats at career highs nearly across the board.
Gay's athleticism has covered up some flaws that may keep him from being talked about as one of the best guys in the league. He's still not an elite defender, though he seems committed to taking that next step. He's also inefficient when he's not making plays at the rim or shooting the 3—he shoots only 41 percent on his jumpers.
That being said, Gay's development is impossible to ignore. And at 23, he's got time to continue improving on his game. Best of all he's proven to be cool in the clutch, producing numerous late game highlights for the Grizzlies.
No. 7: Eric Gordon
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We always knew Eric Gordon could shoot, but his development inside the three point line and on defense really have people buzzing. Before his recent injury he was filling it up, averaging more than 24 points per game with at a 59 percent true shooting clip—a 47/36/82 split that would be even more impressive if he wasn't having a down year from the 3 point line. His per game averages are up across the board, and he just turned 22 in December.
The Clippers are sure hoping it's a sign of things to come, but there are a few lingering question marks. Gordon is very strong but only 6'3", and has yet to prove that he can be a contributor rebounding the ball. He's only collecting three rebounds per 40 minutes, one of the lowest rates for full time shooting guards in the league. He had turnover problems until this year, so that is another item of concern.
While Gordon may be benefiting from the emergence of another young LA Clippers star, he has proven at the very least he can be one of the leagues top scorers. He will have time to jell with his current squad, and if the team improves he may start being a legitimate consideration for All-NBA teams for years to come.
No. 6: John Wall
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An athlete on par with PGs Derrick Rose and Russell Westbrook, it was actually hard for me to leave him at No. 6 in this list. His 40 minute averages (16 points on 49 percent TS, 10 assists, 5 rebounds and 2 steals) are right in line with Rose's rookie season (18 points on 51 percent TS, 7 assists, 4 rebounds and 1 steal).
Wall is not the shooter/scorer that D. Rose was at this point, but his play-making ability is peerless—especially as a distributor where he's on pace to average the most APG as a rookie since Marc Jackson dished out 10.6 per contest in 1987-88. He's also probably not quite the leaper Rose is, but is taller with a longer wingspan and may be faster with the ball than anyone in the league. The fact that so many people have made comparisons between the two bodes well for Wall.
Now the bad: Wall is not yet efficient on the offensive end, and turns the ball over far too much. This is partly a byproduct of getting used to the increased pace of the NBA game, but it's something he will need to work hard on improving. He is, however, a better 3 point shooter than Rose was at this point in time, and seems committed to working on his shot.
At 20 years old, Wall is already being asked to lead an inexperienced Wizards squad. A couple years will give us better clarity on this one, but he seems up to the task. In terms of upside and rookie performance there aren't many who can trump him. His court vision and passing make him a threat to drop 15 dimes on any given night, and he's scored 25 or more points five times this season despite missing a slew of games to injury. He's a competitor and plays hard on defense, which is something a young Wizards team will need if they want to become contenders.
No. 5: Russell Westbrook
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Westbrook came out of his Team USA experience a much improved player. He's added six points per game to his average, shown improved shooting accuracy and gotten more active on the defensive side of the ball. Still one of the fastest players in the league he's getting to the rim better than ever—earning three more trips to the free throw line than last year. He's a key piece to Oklahoma City's title aspirations, and is a formidable duo paired with Kevin Durant.
The shooting improvements will be the most important part of this puzzle. He's still only hitting 44 percent of his shots and 30 percent of his threes. For someone who gets to the rim with such ease strength, he needs to convert better than 58 percent of those shots. And while he shot a pedestrian 38 percent on jump shots under 10 feet last season, he's regressed to shoot only 29 percent on such shots.
At 6'3" it's hard shooting inside with the big boys, but considering Westbrook's leaping ability, strength and reliance on getting into the paint, he'll need to be more efficient when he does. He's another young star who seems to "get it" in his third season, and since he just turned 22 in November he'll have many more years to refine his game.
No. 4: Kevin Love
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Love is looking to become the first player to haul in 15 boards a game since Ben Wallace in '02-'03, he'd be only the fourth different player in 10 years to lead the league in rebounding. Given Love's age (22) and motor, we may be witnessing a torch-passing for league's best rebounder.
While Love has languished on a bad Timberwolves team his first three years in the league, he's made humongous strides: going from 11 points, 9 boards in his first year to 14/11 in his second and now a ridiculous 21/15 this season. I'm guessing you've heard, but he'd be the first to average 20 points and 15 rebounds since Moses Malone.
You may have also heard that he had a 30/30 game earlier this year, the first since Moses in 1982. These are video game numbers, and shouldn't be compiled against the competition in today's NBA.
Love has incredible hands so if he gets to a rebound he can usually secure it, and his box out technique and outlet passes hearken back to the days of Bill Walton (another UCLA alum). And while rebounding is his forte, it's almost unbelievable to think he may become the first true power forward ever to achieve a 50/40/90 percentage breakdown—this season he's at 47/43/88...that's right, 43 percent shooting the 3 ball from a 6'10" bruiser.
The only question left is Love's upside. He seems to already be getting the most out of his athleticism and off the charts basketball IQ, so it's debatable whether we'll see much more maturity in his numbers. That fact keeps him outside the top three, but there's no shame in being behind...
No. 3: Blake Griffin
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Griffin is having the the best "rookie" season in over 20 years. He's captured the attention of even non-NBA fans because of his gravity defying ups and powerful physique, and has almost single-handedly rejuvenated the woebegone Clippers. That makes him the easiest ROY pick in recent memory...but doesn't get him past No. 3 on our list.
Blake is a double-double machine, averaging 23 points, 13 rebounds and 4 assists per game this season. It's made people forget about his major knee injury, and sent them scrambling to explain how sitting on the sidelines for a season helped him prepare for the day-to-day grind of the NBA. His athleticism is as impressive as ever, and other than the potential for a fractured skull on an under-padded backboard he doesn't appear to be an injury risk going forward.
But the way he plays the game does make it seem like he's perpetually inches away from a catastrophic injury. He flies up and down the court, and looks for alley-oops at every opportunity. It's what makes him so appealing to fans, but it could also be taken away at a moments notice—and certainly won't pay the bills at the back end of your career. It's also surprising given his talents that it hasn't translated to the defensive end, where he racks up few stats on a porous Clippers defense.
Offensively he'll need to continue to refine his post moves and shooting accuracy—although he's hitting on over 45 percent of his 3-pointers this season (taking one every three —especially from the free throw line where he's shooting only 62 percent. People aren't going to let him dunk on every play, after all.
But no reason to worry about that now, when Blake's on this type of hot streak. Not even a car can stand between him and NBA super-duper-stardom, and at only 21 years of age he'll be certain to entertain for many years to come.
No. 2: Derrick Rose
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Rose has made it difficult to have him anywhere but at the top of this list, but this is really his first breakout season after solid freshman and sophomore campaigns. He's leading the Bulls to a top three seed in the East despite major injuries to Joakim Noah and Carlos Boozer (stop me if you've heard this before). He's scoring in buckets, averaging 25 points a game and setting career highs in assists (eight) and rebounds (four). This third year jump has placed him squarely in the discussion of the NBA's best.
Typically scoring point guards don't have a great history of team success, but Rose seems to be bucking that trend. He has incredible body control and is able to get to the hoop with ease. Perhaps his most effective shot is a floater 5-10 feet from the hoop that rarely gets blocked and prevents him from committing offensive fouls. Conversely, he's able to draw fouls more effectively this season and it has boosted his scoring.
Rose's FG percentage is actually down this season, but much of that can be attributed to the fact that he's taking about three more 3-pointers per game. The decline is partly offset by the fact that he's hitting a career best 36 percent from outside, and he's making teams pay for sending him to the free throw line. Still, there is room for improvement on his mid range jump shot.
It's also surprising to see him only collecting one steal a game, considering his quickness and motor. If he can improve his defense both on and off the ball, he'll be an elite player on both ends of the floor.
No. 1: Kevin Durant
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Durant made the last pick easy. He won a scoring title in his third year, becoming the youngest ever to do so. He's got a ridiculous frame for basketball—lithe but powerful, quick but almost 6'10" and with a 7' wingspan. Physically he's impossible to guard on the offensive end for all but a few forwards, and he's able to use his spidery build to get into passing lanes and disrupt flow on defense.
Unfortunately his numbers are down across the board this season—even turnovers, though that's a positive development considering his propensity for them. Part of that can be attributed to Russell Westbrook's rise, and some may be attributed to the extra minutes played in the playoffs and over the summer for Team USA. But with his FG percentage returning to earth (47/34/88 down from 48/37/90), he could stand to be more efficient on offense.
On defense his length gets him steals and blocks (averaging more than one of each a game), and he always wants to guard the other teams best player. His focus on defense seems to improve when it matters, so he probably can hone that killer instinct earlier in games.
He's a guaranteed All-Star for the next decade, a lock to secure several more scoring titles, and will likely win a couple MVPs in the process. And if the Thunder can lock up Russell Westbrook and Serge Ibaka for the long haul, we may even see him raise the Larry O'Brien trophy in the near future. And, he's the current title holder for Most Promising Prospect Under 25.
Honorable Mentions
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Some tough emissions, but "maybe next year, fellas":
DeMar DeRozan
Greg Oden
Danilo Gallinari
Nic Batum
DeAndre Jordan
Landry Fields
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