College Football Picks 2008 Week Five, Part Two: Mitch’s Predictions

At 50-39-1 against the spread this season, I am not far enough ahead to feel comfortable with the cushion I've built, but at the same time I know it could be a lot worse. I've been scanning the net looking at how everyone else has been doing, and in a lot of cases it is not pretty out there.

When I first looked at this week's games I didn't think much of it, but now that I've gone through the entire slate with the point spreads, it looks pretty exciting to me. The points are the great equalizer, and that's why they are there. As the weeks move on, the early line moves become more violent, but that works itself out as well.

We haven't hit the heart of the conference season, though many teams have already played a conference game and several more play their first this weekend.

I like conference play, and while the Notre Dame's of the world don't think they need a conference, they probably just don't get what they're missing. While they still come out on top financially, it comes at the sacrifice of consistent scheduling and the lack of a real rivalry.

While that is a subject for another time, I'm excited about conference play, and we see some nice matchups this weekend regardless of if teams are in an upward or downward cycle. In a lot of these games the cycle is truly irrelevant.

In any event, I have 10 more picks for today for Week Five, so let's get to them.

Wisconsin -6 at Michigan (Saturday, Sept. 27, 3:30 EST): 1 Unit

Last year Michigan started extremely slow and then all of the sudden righted the ship and ended up beating a very good Florida Gator team on the road in a New Year's Day bowl game. Does this Michigan team have the same fate? It's doubtful, but anything is possible in college football.

This is the first time in seven years that the Badgers have been favored, and they have done extremely well in the underdog role in this series as of late, going 5-0-1 against the spread.

The Badgers have already had their share of ups and downs this season as they blew the cover in the waning seconds against Akron and escaped with a win at Fresno in a game many feel had luck on their side.

Ask anyone—even the great teams have needed some good luck and fortune over the years. So far Michigan has gotten none of it, turning the ball over six times in a loss at Notre Dame and losing at home to Utah in a game they were just outplayed in.

I felt that Rich Rodriguez could win right away at Michigan, but I will have to say I feel I was wrong in that assumption as he just doesn't seem to have the parts to make his car run properly.

Speaking of automobiles, the Badgers have a backfield full of some Mack Trucks, which are always going to keep you in games on the road or just about anywhere for that matter.

Neither of these teams has done much against the spread as of late, as Michigan is just 1-5 in their last six overall and 9-19-1 in their last 29 home games when looking at them covering. The Badgers are just 2-6 against the spread in their last eight conference games and 1-6 against the spread in their last seven on the road.

Wisconsin, however, is one of those teams that usually plays well off of a bye week and are 5-1 against the spread following their last six weeks off. Something has to give here, and my thoughts are that it's the Wolverines—I'm on Wisconsin.

Virginia Tech +7 at Nebraska (Sept. 27, 8 EST): 1 Unit

I am going to cut to the chase: I am not sold on Nebraska. I don't believe, just three games out of the Bill Callahan experience, that the Huskers are a new team capable of beating a good football team, and that is what they face this week.

While Virginia Tech hasn't gotten back to its winning ways the pretty way, they have certainly gotten back to winning and have been on the road for what seems like an eternity. Frank Beamer's squad has looked green at times, but they seem to be getting better, and in typical Beamer fashion they are making the plays they need to in order to win games.

While Nebraska is undefeated, those wins come against San Jose State, New Mexico State, and Western Michigan—hardly the North Carolina, Georgia Tech, and East Carolina the Hokies have already faced this season.

I'm still not quite sure I understand this line as the Huskers are just 4-10 against the spread in their last 14, 2-8 against the spread when playing teams with a winning record, and 1-7 against the spread in their last eight following a straight up win.

The Hokies are used to being on the road and it suits them well, as they are 18-5 against the spread in their last 23 road games and 13-3 against the spread when playing on the road against a team with a winning record.

Virginia Tech is also 5-2 against the spread following their last seven bye weeks and 5-2 against the spread following their last seven straight up wins.

I'm on the Hokies again this week and will probably play the money line for the outright win as well.

See eight more picks in this article plus much more at The College Football Place.