Fantasy Baseball: Draft This, Not That - Part 5

In the process of doing these articles, we have covered a bunch of positions. This time around, pitching is where we will spend our time. Many of you that have been reading this space know that I do not believe in wasting early picks on pitchers. There simply is too much fluctuation in the best pitchers from year to year. There are surprises around every corner and many pitchers that finish ranked highly in stats can be found on waivers early in the season. The best work you can do for your pitching staff comes in combing the wire in April and May.

That said, as I was ranking starters, one comparison caught my eye quickly. It was furthered by looking at current ADP numbers on MockDraftCentral.com. Check out this compare:

Player A: 223 IP, 180K, 14W, 3.14 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 164 ADP
Player B: 235 IP, 179K, 16W, 3.22 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 90 ADP

When you look at the numbers, there is very little difference between one and the other. In fact the numbers over the course of an entire season do not net out to anything material lost in any given single week. Drafting either would not have disappointed a given owner when they looked at the end result of 2010, though we tend to look too heavily at wins. Are two wins worth 74 spots? That's equivalent to six or seven rounds in a given draft.

This is where eyes can play tricks on us. Player B in this case is Chris Carpenter. The St. Louis ace is an attractive option and continues to hold high esteem for many fantasy owners. As well he should. Carpenter has the ability to simply dominate in any given start. His 2009 comeback season left many of us ready for 2010 and he did not necessarily disappoint. Carpenter is showing that he is not as fragile as many may have thought, but the concern is still going to be in the back of the mind for some owners. There is risk, but limited. We know that he will provide decent value for the selection.

The mystery man with better than average value here is Brett Myers. Not many would have expected heading in to last season that he could mirror Carpenter's numbers, yet here we are discussing that. Myers has the sad distinction of playing for the Astros, but any owner will tell you that you cannot necessarily draft wins. Look at Clayton Kershaw's 13 and then his 212 strikeouts.

You take the trade off. Here that is the case as well. Myers is more risky than Carpenter because he is slightly more...unstable. His 3.14 ERA was the lowest mark he has ever put up and his WHIP was his lowest mark since 2005. That would make any owner nervous.

For owners, Carpenter is a mentally safer selection. When you click on Myers' name the nerves cause you to tense up a bit more. That said, he showed in 2010 that he can produce and produce at a high level. In 2011, owners need to take a look at him and be willing to gamble later in a draft on the upside that he can provide.