2011 Pac-12 College Football Recruiting Results: What Does It All Mean?
Pac-12 Recruiting Results and Comparison
This year's most important college football recruiting date is in the books.
The letters of intent are signed and recruiting results are in.
So how do the Pac-12 teams compare in their first conference recruiting battles? And what do the results mean for the next few years?
Take a look at how they stack up against each other with easy to follow normalized rankings:
Normalized Commit Values for Calculations
1 of 16Rivals, Scout and ESPN all score classes differently leaving room for argument.
To simplify recruiting scoring, this scaled down scoring system is used. This scoring is similar to what a recruiting service would use but simplified.
That is, a one-star recruit would have a value of 10; then a two-star recruit would have the value of a one-star plus 15 more. This process is iterated and applied to all five levels of players as shown in the value table below:
Recruits Value*:
One-Star or Not Ranked (NR) recruit is valued at 10 points
Two-Star recruit is valued at 25 points (One-Star + 15 points)
Three-Star recruit is valued at 45 points (Two-Star + 20 points)
Four-Star recruit is valued at 70 points (Three-Star + 25 points)
Five-Star recruit is valued at 100 points (Four-Star + 30 points)
*Based on Rivals.com rankings
Grading Classes:
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Team recruiting letter grades are separated in increments of 100:
1600+ A+
1500+ A
1400+ A-
1300+ B+
1200+ B
1100+ B-
1000+ C+
900+ C
800+ C-
700+ D+
600+ D
500+ D-
400+ F+
300+ F
0-200+ F-
Grading the Pac-12 Recruiting Results
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One of the most unexpected results was USC's successful recruiting. UCLA's dismal recruiting results were expected but still disappointing. This is a year when Arizona State was hoping to do much better, and Oregon should have.
These normalized results track Rivals, Scout and ESPN fairly well. The purpose is to show relative measure only (not to replace any recruiting service). Pac-12 results are clear for comparison.
Team* Total Commits Scout Grade
USC 1670 29 5 A+
Oregon 1370 23 10 B+
California 1240 22 14 B
Washington 1100 23 19 B-
Stanford 1010 19 22 C+
Oregon State 945 24 44 C
Arizona 870 21 68 C-
Washington St 865 24 53 D+
Utah 845 19 46 C-
Colorado 735 19 61 D+
UCLA 735 16 54 D+
Arizona State 555 13 67 D-
*Based on Rivals.com Team’s signed LOIs as of 2-3-11
USC Trojans
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USC Trojans
Grade: A+
Points: 1670
Total Commits: 29
Normalized Ranking Calculation
Five-Star: 1 x 100 = 100
Four-Star: 14 x 70 = 980
Three-Star: 12 x 45 = 540
Two-Star: 2 x 25 = 50
One-Star/NR: 0 x 10 = 0
Total = 1670
Comment: Overachieved considering NCAA sanctions. This was expected to be a 700+ point class, but USC won the Pac-12 recruiting race. USC was perhaps the best school in the country at filling their needs. The Trojans logged the fourth-best recruiting class in the nation and the best in all the Pac-12. USC has had 10 straight top-10 classes.
Oregon Ducks
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Oregon Ducks
Grade: B+
Points: 1370
Total Commits: 23
Normalized Ranking Calculation
Five-Star: 2 x 100 = 200
Four-Star: 9 x 70 = 630
Three-Star: 12 x 45 = 540
Two-Star: 0 x 25 = 0
One-Star/NR: 0 x 10 = 0
Total = 1370
Comment: Slightly underachieved considering this team went to the BCS National Championship. This was expected to be a 1, 600+ point class, but Oregon placed only second in the Pac-12 recruiting race. The Ducks logged the ninth-best recruiting class in the nation, which is an improvement from last year by five spots.
California Bears
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California Bears
Grade: B
Points: 1240
Total Commits: 22
Normalized Ranking Calculation
Five-Star: 0 x 100 = 0
Four-Star: 10 x 70 = 700
Three-Star: 12 x 45 = 540
Two-Star: 0 x 25 = 0
One- Star/NR: 0 x 10 = 0
Total = 1240
Comment: California performed as expected. The Bears usually do! Last year, Cal captured two five-star and seven four-star recruits. Signing 10 four-star players in 2011 is very similar to last year’s performance. Although this year’s class was down six spots nationally, they did beef up their defensive line (and linebackers last year).
Washington Huskies
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Washington Huskies
Grade: B-
Points: 1100
Total Commits: 23
Normalized Ranking Calculation
Five-Star: 0 x 100 = 0
Four-Star: 5 x 70 = 350
Three-Star: 15 x 45 = 675
Two-Star: 3 x 25 = 75
One-Star/NR: 0 x 10 = 0
Total = 1100
Comment: Washington’s success was very similar to last year’s results. The Huskies captured five four-star recruits both years. These results help Washington to continue their winning seasons, but as far as capturing the Pac-12 North is concerned, Oregon, Cal and Stanford will stand in their way for several years to come.
Stanford Cardinal
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Stanford Cardinal
Grade: C+
Points: 1010
Total Commits: 19
Normalized Ranking Calculation
Five-Star: 0 x 100 = 0
Four-Star: 7 x 70 = 490
Three-Star: 12 x 45 = 495
Two-Star: 1 x 25 = 25
One-Star/NR: 0 x 10 = 0
Total = 1010
Comment: Stanford 2011’s success was also very similar to last year’s results. The Cardinal captured two more four-star recruits this year compared to 2010. Stanford would have done much better this year if Jim Harbaugh & coaches did not leave for better jobs. Stanford will compete with Cal for second place in the Pac-12 North this year.
Oregon State Beavers
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Oregon State Beavers
Grade: C
Points: 945
Total Commits: 24
Normalized Ranking Calculation
Five-Star: 0 x 100 = 0
Four-Star: 1 x 70 = 70
Three-Star: 15 x 45 = 675
Two-Star: 8 x 25 = 200
One-Star/NR: 0 x 10 = 0
Total = 945
Comment: Oregon State underachieved considering that Mike Riley is a great player’s coach. Oregon State ranked about 44th in national recruiting last year with four four-star recruits. This year is a significant drop off for the Beavers with only one four-star player. The Beavers will battle the Cougars for fifth in the Pac-12 North.
Arizona Wildcats
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Arizona Wildcats
Grade: C-
Points: 870
Total Commits: 21
Normalized Ranking Calculation
Five-Star: 0 x 100 = 0
Four-Star: 1 x 70 = 70
Three-Star: 15 x 45 = 675
Two-Star: 5 x 25 = 125
One-Star/NR: 0 x 10 = 0
Total = 870
Comment: What happened to the Wildcats? Last year, the Arizona Wildcats ranked 37th in national recruiting with four four-star recruits. Like the Beavers, the Wildcats signed only one this year. Arizona did not even rank in the top 60 classes in 2011, but the good news is there is only one school who recruited better in the Pac-12 South.
Washington State Cougars
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Washington State Cougars
Grade: C-
Points: 865
Total Commits: 24
Normalized Ranking Calculation
Five-Star: 0 x 100 = 0
Four-Star: 1 x 70 = 70
Three-Star: 11 x 45 = 495
Two-Star: 12 x 25 = 300
One-Star/NR: 0 x 10 = 0
Total = 865
Comment: Like last year, Washington State signed a ton of two-star and three-star players. But this year, they signed four-star OL Alex Mitchell. This shows an improvement, like their record did last year. Washington State may be last in the Pac-12 North, but the Cougars are taking steps in the right direction. The Cougars will double their wins this year.
Utah Utes
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Utah Utes
Grade: C-
Points: 845
Total Commits: 19
Normalized Ranking Calculation
Five-Star: 0 x 100 = 0
Four-Star: 2 x 70 = 140
Three-Star: 14 x 45 = 630
Two-Star: 3 x 25 = 75
One-Star/NR: 0 x 10 = 0
Total = 845
Comment: Welcome to the Pac-12 Utah! The Utes dropped by five spots in national recruiting this year (from 32nd to 37th). Utah captured four four-star recruits last year and just two in 2011. Utah must recruit better in the Pac-12 to remain as competitive as they were in the Mountain West Conference.
Colorado Buffaloes
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Colorado Buffaloes
Grade: D+
Points: 735
Total Commits: 19
Normalized Ranking Calculation
Five-Star: 0 x 100 = 0
Four-Star: 0 x 70 = 0
Three-Star: 13 x 45 = 585
Two-Star: 6 x 25 = 150
One-Star/NR: 0 x 10 = 0
Total = 735
Comment: Another welcome is due in the Pac-12 for Colorado as well! The Buffaloes' 2011 recruiting is similar to last year’s results—not good. Colorado needs to step it up if they want to get back to their 1990 National Championship winning ways. The Buffaloes are moving in the right direction with a new, proficient coaching staff.
UCLA Bruins
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UCLA Bruins
Grade: D+
Points: 735
Total Commits: 16
Normalized Ranking Calculation
Five-Star: 0 x 100 = 0
Four-Star: 3 x 70 = 210
Three-Star: 10 x 45 = 450
Two-Star: 3 x 25 = 75
One-Star/NR: 0 x 10 = 0
Total = 735
Comment: Woeful! UCLA was ranked eighth in national recruiting last year but dropped to 44th in 2011. UCLA added ONLY their 16th recruit with quarterback Jerry Neuheisel, a Scout two-star commit. The Bruins went 15-22 in the last three years. And Rocky Seto is the next defensive coordinator? Really? USC went from first to last in Pac-10 passing defense after Rocky was assigned as the Trojans defensive coordinator.
Update (2-5-11): It appears that Rocky Seto was offered the DC position and did accept it. However, Seto's subsequent leak of information about accepting the job to staffers at the Daily Trojan caused UCLA to scratch him off the list. Now, Rick Neuheisel is back to where he started on December 6, 2010.
Arizona State Sun Devils
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Arizona State Sun Devils
Grade: D-
Points: 555
Total Commits: 13
Normalized Ranking Calculation
Five-Star: 0 x 100 = 0
Four-Star: 2 x 70 = 140
Three-Star: 7 x 45 = 315
Two-Star: 4 x 25 = 100
One-Star/NR: 0 x 10 = 0
Total = 555
Comment: Unbelievable! Arizona State was ranked 35th in national recruiting last year, with four four-star commits but dropped off the map this year. The Sun Devils were a possibility to represent the Pac-12 South in the 2011 title game. If USC is granted bowl eligibility this year, that won’t happen. This year should have been the Sun Devils big chance.
What Does This All Mean?
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What does this all mean?
The USC Trojans continue to out-recruit the Pac-12, no matter how much the NCAA tries to squash them.
Oregon did not capitalize on their BCS bowl game appearance like they should have.
UCLA did not capitalize on USC’s woes like they should have. The UCLA Bruin’s troubles are growing.
UCLA and Colorado will probably pull up the rear in the Pac-12 South. Washington State and Oregon State will probably pull up the rear in the Pac-12 North. Utah and Colorado need to step up their recruiting efforts to compete in the Pac-12.
USC and Oregon will probably battle for the Pac-12 title in 2011 (if USC is granted bowl eligibility this year). USC and Oregon will battle for the Pac-12 title through the latter half of the decade.
The Berkeley Bears will have something to say about Oregon’s Pac-12 North dominance for the next four or five years.
