To Clinch Early, Or Not to Clinch Early? That Is A Good Question

On September 10th, the Los Angeles Angels became the first team to clinch a playoff berth by winning the AL West. They did so earlier than any team had ever done in the history of the division.

The Chicago Cubs are on the cusp of clinching the NL Central with more than a week to play in the regular season.

The Red Sox and Rays have pretty much wrapped up playoff spots.

The other 4 spots are up for grabs.

These facts in place, the question ultimately arises: is it better for a team to clinch a postseason spot early, where they can set their rotation and rest their key players, or is it better to fight tooth and nail all the way to the end and win a spot under intense scrutiny, thereby preparing them for the crucible of playoff pressure?

Let's take a look at history.

Only five teams have clinched a playoff spot earlier than the Angels did this season in the divisional era (since 1969). They have had varying fates.

-The 1975 Reds clinched on September 7th. They won the World Series.

-The 1995 Indians clinched on September 8th. They lost the World Series.

-The 1999 Indians clinched on September 8th. They lost in the ALDS.

-The 1998 Yankees clinched on September 9th. They won the World Series. The team they beat in the Series, the Padres, clinched on September 12th.  

-The 2002 Braves clinched on September 9th. They lost in the NLDS.

So, three of the five teams at least made the World Series. The other two lost in the first round. This tells us little of the effect of momentum, so let's look at last season's marks.

The Cubs did not clinch until the last weekend of the season. They were soundly spanked by the Arizona Diamondbacks, who clinched on the same day. The Colorado Rockies had to go to an extra day to clinch the Wild Card and they ended up sweeping the Phillies (clinched 9/30) and Diamondbacks and made it to the World Series.

In the AL, the Red Sox clinched on 9/29 and made it to the World Series. The Indians clinched nearly a week before the Sox did but lost in the ALCS to the Bostonians. The Yankees clinched on 9/27 and were unceremoniously dispatched by the Tribe. The Angels also clinched on 9/23 and were swept in the ALDS by the Red Sox.

So what does all of this information tell us? Well, on the NL side, no one clinched early, but the team who was playing the best baseball at the time (I'd call 15-1 to finish the season playing the best in baseball) ended up going to the World Series.

In the AL, the two teams that clinched early lost in the first two rounds, while the team that didn't clinch until the 2nd to last day of the season ended up winning the World Series.

Of the past few World Series champions, they clinched playoff berths on various days. The 2006 Cardinals clinched on the last day of the season after enduring a 7 game losing streak in September, and even though they won a mere 83 games that year they still won the Series.

The 2005 White Sox didn't clinch until the final weekend of the regular season, and played poorly throughout most of September, then stormed through October in an 11-1 blitzkrieg to win the title.

The 2004 Red Sox clinched on September 27th and swept the Cardinals in the Fall Classic.

One theme becomes increasingly clear in this age of astonishing parity in baseball: the playoffs are for the most part a crapshoot, where any of the 8 teams can win. The one thing all of these teams have in common is that they were playing meaningful games until near the very end of the season.

This could be a bad sign for the Angels, but as Octobers keep teaching us, anything can happen when the playoffs start.

 Some information from the LA Times was used in this article