Your Fantasy Football Reality Check #8 - Observations

YOUR FANTASY FOOTBALL-REALITY CHECK #8: OBSERVATIONS

After a three- week hiatus I’d like to welcome everyone back for this week’s installment of your Fantasy Football Reality Check. I wanted to step back for a week or so and assess how things are unfolding so far in the ’08 fantasy campaign before offering any arbitrary and uninformed advice. I certainly am glad I took this approach considering the injuries that have already befallen some of the NFL’s brightest stars. I realize we’’re only two weeks into the season, but its not too soon to recognize some of the trends and make some bold predictions about what the rest of the season may have in store for us fantasy leaguers.

The landscape of the NFL and fantasy football shifts in subtle and great ways every year. Case in point - Tom Brady is a great shift, while Marques Colston is a subtle shift - both having significant impact on their teams (fantasy and reality). Obviously the fallout from a QB injury will impact a team in a larger scope because it affects the value of every offensive player on that roster. It’s hard to foresee what kind of offense will be run with Matt Cassel at the helm, but it’s easy to say it will be a diminished one. The two positions in New England that benefit the most from Brady’’s injury are RB and K — Gostkowski should see a spike in ownership.

It was awfully scary seeing Randy Moss’’ stat line from last Sunday- 22 receiving yards. While I don’’t see the same receiver that came from Oakland cropping up this season in N.E., I also don’t see him coming anywhere near the level he was at last season.

Bold Predictions:

• This is the year of the decline of LaDanian Tomlinson. He doesn’’t look like the beast with the same fire he had in ’06. Also, all of a sudden the Chargers look like a prolific PASSING team with plenty of trees to spread the ball to (Vincent Jackson, Chris Chambers, and Antonio Gates). Darren Sproles should be added immediately.

• With Tom Brady sitting out this season- it’s time to identify the next breakout passer. We all know that Romo slides up a notch, but the surprise candidate who will finish as a top 3 fantasy QB by the end of this year is Jay Cutler. He has the weapons and the skills to take that jump up the rankings.

• Conversely, Brandon Marshall will finish the season as a top 3 wide receiver. He has the QB, the determination, the size, and the confidence to surpass many of the contemporaries at his position. Baby T.O. indeed!

• Willie Parker’ is back everyone. Injury aside, I believe last season was an off year and he’s due for a resurgence in ’08. Revealing stat: Of the 3 TD’s he scored in week 1, two of them came from within the 5 yard line- a GREAT sign for Parker owners.

• If Kurt Warner can stay healthy for the remainder of the season, he will finish as a top 5 fantasy QB. This prediction only qualifies as bold if he’’s able to remain upright obviously.

• Chris Johnson will be the most effective rookie tailback. That’’s pending Marion Barber staying healthy though, because if Felix Jones has a chance to start in Dallas- I’’d rank him above Johnson. Johnson’ is starting and currently splitting time with LenDale White. While White will still get the goal-line carries, Johnson will break off plenty of big gainers that some will end up TD’s.

I hope you’r’e enjoying success in your life and your 08 fantasy football season as well. Next week is the advent of the dreaded bye weeks (ALREADY?!), so pay close attention to the details of the games if you’’re in the market for backup players, you never know what will happen!

Good luck everybody!

~ Stephen Lamare