College Football Predictions 2011: Power Ranking the 25 Most Overrated Players
Make no mistake about it: College football will be replete with exciting and talented players from coast to coast.
However, many of those players, exciting and talented as they may be, will be paraded by the national sports media as sensations and saviors alike, with labels like "the next Cam Newton" and "the next Vince Young" being tossed around like candy on Halloween.
Again, nothing against young student-athletes like LaMichael James of Oregon or Terrelle Pryor of Ohio State, who have done plenty on the field to merit coverage and praise.
Rather, players of their ilk—preseason All-Americans, Heisman Trophy contenders and finalists for many more awards—will likely garner far more attention for their exploits than they deserve, as much of their success will come on the backs of their teammates.
With that in mind, here are the top 25 such individuals who will take the field in 2011.
25. Geno Smith, Quarterback, West Virginia
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We begin the list with West Virginia's Geno Smith.
Geno who?
Exactly. The junior-to-be isn't exactly a household name just yet, but he'll likely garner more than his fair share of headlines throughout the 2011 season.
Granted, Smith has proven himself to be a quality quarterback, having thrown for 2,763 yards and 24 touchdowns against just seven interceptions as a sophomore.
And, with Noel Devine and Jock Sanders gone to graduation, the Mountaineers will rely much more on Smith to get the job done through the air, especially with new coach-in-waiting Dana Holgorsen bringing his pass-happy attack over from Oklahoma State.
As such, Smith's profile as the BMOC for the best team in the Big East will likely grow, assuming WVU wins and he piles up yards through the air.
Whether the praise will be justified is, as of yet, unclear.
24. Nick Toon, Wide Receiver, Wisconsin
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It's tough to find fault in a guy like Nick Toon, who has both one of the best names and one of the best receiving resumes of any player in college football.
Toon gets a lot of pub for a guy whose numbers (36 catches for 459 yards and three touchdowns in 2010) are pretty modest, even on a team like Wisconsin that relies so heavily on its ground attack.
With veteran quarterback Scott Tolzien off to the NFL, Badgers coach Bret Bielema will likely have his team rely even more on the run, even without the likes of John Clay in the backfield and Gabe Carimi blocking up front.
As such, Toon's relevance to the success of his team is bound to take another hit.
He may still receive a disproportionate reward for whatever services he provides, though.
23. Garrett Gilbert, Quarterback, Texas
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Here's the situation: Your team is a national power but is coming off its worst season in years.
It will be pinning its hopes for recovery on a quarterback who threw more interceptions than touchdowns last year.
That's right, Texas fans—you better hope Garrett Gilbert takes a big step forward in 2011.
Otherwise, it could be another long year in Austin for anyone and everyone wearing Burnt Orange.
Gilbert, who filled in for the injured Colt McCoy in the 2010 BCS National Championship Game, will receive plenty more attention for the fact that his success or failure may determine how much pressure folks at UT need to apply to Mack Brown.
Brown may have difficulty surviving another down season—at least without some serious scrutiny—especially now that Will Muschamp is off to Florida.
And, for all of that attention at one of the highest-profile programs in America, Gilbert is still far from being worthy of anything near the kind of attention he is bound to get.
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22. Kirk Cousins, Quarterback, Michigan State
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On the flip side, Michigan State's Kirk Cousins has won games and has performed pretty well doing so.
But he, like the rest of his team, proved to be highly overrated.
Despite an 11-1 record and a share of the Big Ten title in 2010, Cousins and the Spartans were still crushed in the Capital One Bowl by an Alabama team with three losses.
In that game, against a real team with an actual defense, Cousins managed only 120 yards through the air, with an interception and not a single touchdown to his credit.
Sparty may still be successful in conference this year, but the spector of Cousins' actual ability versus his perceived success will still remain.
21. Nick Foles, Quarterback, Arizona
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We turn now from the current quarterback in East Lansing to a former one–Nick Foles.
Foles has performed admirably well since he arrived in Tucson, throwing for 3,191 yards, 20 touchdowns and 10 picks as a junior.
However, his reputation as one of the premiere quarterbacks in the Pac-10 far precedes him, particularly after the Wildcats dropped their final four games of the 2010 regular season despite his steady play before getting pummeled in the Alamo Bowl against Oklahoma State.
A game, mind you, in which Foles threw three interceptions against one of the most porous defenses in the nation.
Not exactly an elite performance for a supposedly elite quarterback.
20. Jordan Wynn, Quarterback, Utah
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At least Nick Foles knows where he stands in his own conference.
Jordan Wynn, on the other hand, is about to find out firsthand what it's like to take a beating in a BCS conference, now that Utah is set to join the Pac-12 in 2011.
Wynn has proven capable of surviving in the Mountain West Conference, having served as the Utes' starter for a season and a half and thrown for 2,334 yards, 17 touchdowns and 10 interceptions during his first full season in 2010.
Wynn wasn't around for Utah's 26-3 pounding at the hands of Boise State in the MAACO Bowl Las Vegas.
He will still be on hand, though, as he and his teammates attempt to negotiate their way through a difficult Pac-12 schedule.
Look for Wynn's reputation to take a hit, along with his performance.
19. Chris Galippo, Linebacker, USC
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One person who may be delivering said beating to Jordan Wynn is USC's Chris Galippo.
The 6'2", 250-pound linebacker has garnered plenty of hype ever since his high school playing days at Servite High School in Anaheim. But he has yet to truly deliver on the promise that so many have attributed to him.
Three games missed or no, Galippo still only managed to get in on 29 tackles in 2010, despite being touted as a fierce ballhawk since arriving in downtown Los Angeles.
Galippo still has one more year to prove that he's not a college football bust, though he'll still get plenty of attention from the announcers whenever the Trojans play on national television.
18. Dayne Crist, Quarterback, Notre Dame
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Meanwhile, Dayne Crist will be doing his best to lift one of USC's biggest rivals back into the national elite.
That is, if the hulking Golden Boy from the fabled Notre Dame High School program in the San Fernando Valley can beat out the scrawny Tommy Rees for the starting gig in South Bend.
The 6'4", 235-pounder was supposed to be new coach Brian Kelly's quarterback of choice, but faltered to a 4-5 record before injuries ended his season early and opened the way for Rees to lead the the Irish to four wins to finish the year.
Thus, for all of his physical gifts and talent under center, Crist might end up as the second-stringer for Notre Dame.
17. Greg Childs, Wide Receiver, Arkansas
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Unlike Crist, Greg Childs won't have to fight for playing time, though the time he does see may not be as productive as he and the rest of his Razorback teammates may have hoped.
After establishing himself as one of the better wide receivers in the SEC as Ryan Mallett's go-to guy, Childs will now have to establish a working relationship with incoming quarterback Tyler Wilson, whom many are touting as Bobby Petrino's next NFL project.
Childs' chances for success aren't exactly scant, assuming Wilson proves to be half the quarterback he supposedly can be.
It'll be tough for him, though, to look much better without Mallett tossing pigskins his way.
16. Janoris Jenkins, Safety, Florida
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Should Arkansas manage to come out on top of the SEC West in 2011, Greg Childs may find himself against Florida safety Janoris Jenkins in the conference championship game.
Jenkins has all the talent and ability in the world to be a dominant defensive player.
But, as evidenced by his recent pot arrest, he still has much maturing to do before he can become that.
The Gators will likely get plenty of attention, what with Will Muschamp entering his first year as head coach and all.
Whether Jenkins soaks up much, if any, of that spotlight after putting off the NFL Draft for another year, remains to be seen.
15. Stephen Garcia, Quarterback, South Carolina
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Like Dayne Crist at Notre Dame, Stephen Garcia comes into the 2011 season in a precarious position.
Despite spending the entire year as Steve Spurrier's starting signal caller at South Carolina, Garcia will have to sing for his supper in spring and fall practices.
The Ol' Ball Coach has publicly stated that the competition at quarterback will be an open one in Columbia.
That openness, of course, is due to the fact that Garcia, a player whom Spurrier has stuck with through thick and thin both on and off the field, struggled down the stretch of the 2010 season.
Such underwhelming play, punctuated by three interceptions against Florida State in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl, has drastically downgraded Garcia's profile as a quarterbacking talent.
But he'll still get plenty of media attention should the Gamecocks contend for the SEC East crown once again in the fall.
14. Darron Thomas, Quarterback, Oregon
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Perhaps it's not particularly prudent to place Darron Thomas so close to someone like Stephen Garcia on this list, but he has found his way to the 14th spot nonetheless.
To Thomas' credit, he performed exceedingly well for Chip Kelly in 2010, leading the Ducks to the BCS National Championship Game while throwing for 2,881 yards, 30 touchdowns and nine interceptions.
Not to mention the fact that he also ran for 486 yards and five touchdowns.
That being said, Thomas will have a tough time replicating that performance in 2011 without most of his offensive line and, perhaps most important, his top two receivers—Jeff Maehl and D.J. Davis.
As the two-time defending Pac-10 champ, Oregon will still be all over national television, though Thomas may be hard-pressed to live up to the Heisman hype.
13. Marvin McNutt, Wide Receiver, Iowa
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Thomas might be in better shape if he had a guy like Marvin McNutt to throw to, just as McNutt would do well to have a quarterback like Thomas tossing balls his way.
The 6'4", 215-pound monster of a wide receiver decided to return to Iowa for his senior season after an eye-opening season in which he caught 53 balls for 861 yards and eight scores.
Those numbers will be tough to come by in 2011, as the Hawkeyes will be without Ricky Stanzi under center and several veteran offensive linemen to protect James Vandenberg, his likely replacement.
As such, McNutt's performance—and by extension his NFL Draft stock—is bound to take a serious hit this fall.
12. Chris Rainey, Wide Receiver, Florida
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Then again, at least Marvin McNutt has a serious shot to be a star in the NFL.
Florida's Chris Rainey, on the other hand, still has a long way to go before he parlays his speed and athleticism into legitimacy as a player on the field, even if all the pundits still include him among the bundle of talented skill players in the Swamp.
Granted, Rainey's career has thus far been marred by injury, as when he missed five games in 2010.
Nonetheless, he'll have to step up his production in 2011 if he's ever going to live up to the hype.
11. John Brantley, Quarterback, Florida
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If Chris Rainey steps up his game in 2011, it'll likely come as a result of the play of John Brantley, assuming he hangs on as the starting quarterback under Will Muschamp.
To be fair, the senior-to-be had some huge shoes to fill as Tim Tebow's successor in Gainesville, though his performance in 2010 (2,061 yards, nine touchdowns, 10 interceptions) left much to be desired.
Assuming Brantley beats out Jordan Reed and Trey Burton for the Gators' starting gig, he'll likely have to deal with mastering an entirely new offense, which may or may not set him back even further.
10. Jacory Harris, Quarterback, Miami (Fl)
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Brantley may be the first quarterback in the state of Florida on this list, but he is far from the last.
Checking in as just a smidge more overrated than Brantley is Miami's Jacory Harris.
The 6'4", 200-pound senior-to-be took a significant step backward in 2010, throwing for only 1,793 yards while tossing more picks (15) than touchdowns (14).
As such, Harris saw his head coach, Randy Shannon, get the boot from the Hurricanes' athletic director, forcing the three-year starter into a quarterback competition with former Temple coach Al Golden now at the helm.
And the distinction between likely winner and loser isn't particularly clear, especially after Harris' awful performance (4-7, 37 yards, three interceptions) against Notre Dame in the Sun Bowl.
So when, exactly, is Harris going to blossom into the Heisman Trophy contender everyone thought he'd be?
9. Jordan Jefferson, Quarterback, LSU
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As this list has suggested thus far, there seems to be no shortage of presumed incumbent quarterbacks whose starting status will be under fire during spring and fall camps.
LSU's Jordan Jefferson can safely include himself in that category.
Despite guiding Les Miles' Bayou Bengals to a 12-2 season—punctuated by a victory in the Cotton Bowl in which he threw three touchdown passes against Texas A&M—some in the college football world believe Jefferson may find himself on the outs once JC transfer Zach Mettenberger gets his foot in the door.
And rightfully so, as LSU didn't exactly rely on Jefferson to be a catalyst last season, as evidenced by his paucity of yardage (1,411) and his rather unsightly touchdown-to-interception ratio (seven-to-10).
That being said, at 6'5" and 224 pounds, Jefferson still has the physical gifts to be a star, though LSU's profile as a preseason BCS title contender will do much to inflate both his individual talent and his importance to the team's on-field success.
8. Taylor Martinez, Quarterback, Nebraska
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Unlike Jordan Jefferson, Taylor Martinez is unlikely to lose his spot as his team's starting quarterback before the season begins.
However, if the rising sophomore starts 2011 the way he finished 2010 for Nebraska, it may be incumbent upon head coach Bo Pelini to find a replacement.
Outside of his subpar performance in the Cornhuskers' upset loss to Texas, Martinez appeared to be unstoppable through the first seven-and-a-half games of the season before sustaining an injury against Missouri.
After that point, Martinez was in and out of the lineup for the Huskers, missing two games while losing three out of the four in which he played with nagging health concerns.
In no game were Martinez's struggles more apparent than in Big Red's 19-7 loss to Washington in the Holiday Bowl, in which the young quarterback managed only 53 yards passing and 20 yards rushing.
Thus, all eyes will be on Martinez, good play and bad, as the Huskers make their Big Ten debut in 2011.
7. Justin Blackmon, Wide Receiver, Oklahoma State
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I know what you're thinking: How could a guy like Justin Blackmon, who, in one full season, practically rewrote the NCAA records for wide receivers possibly be overrated?
Don't get me wrong—Blackmon is still an excellent wide receiver who would've been justified had he decided to turn pro after his redshirt sophomore season.
That being said, 6'1", 207-pounder played for the nation's second-most pass-happy team.
Life without offensive coordinator Dana Holgorsen, who moved on to West Virginia as the new coach-in-waiting, may prove to be a bit tougher for the Brandon Weeden-to-Blackmon connection.
If so, Blackmon's stunning accomplishments may prove to be more a case of him being a "system player" than him actually being an All-American talent.
6. E.J. Manuel, Quarterback, Florida State
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How is it that a virtual no-name made it so high up this list?
Well, when you're E.J. Manuel and you're slated to be the starting quarterback at Florida State, it's pretty easy.
With Virginia Tech sustaining heavy losses to its roster since the end of the 2010 season, most pundits have pegged the Seminoles as the team to beat in the ACC.
Of course, much of the team's success or failure will hinge on Manuel's ability to fill the hole under center left behind by Christian Ponder.
Some point to Manuel's obvious talent, at 6'4" and 226 pounds, and previous starting experience as reasons to suppose that he will lead Jimbo Fisher's team back into the elite of the college football world.
However, when that previous experience includes more interceptions (10) than touchdowns (six), it would seem prudent, more than anything, to resist the temptation to anoint E.J. Manuel the next great signal caller in Tallahassee just yet.
5. Denard Robinson, Quarterback, Michigan
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One guy who has proven himself to effective on the field, at least at an individual level, is Michigan's Denard Robinson.
The 6', 193-pound speedster finished the 2010 season with 1,702 yards—second-most in the nation—and 14 touchdowns rushing, which is rather impressive for a guy who played quarterback for the Maize and Blue.
In the process, Robinson became the first person in NCAA history to run and throw for at least 1,500 yards.
As seemingly Heisman-worthy as Robinson's season was statistically, it wasn't nearly enough to save Rich Rodriguez's job.
The Wolverines finished the season with a 7-6 record, punctuated by back-to-back blowout losses to arch rival Ohio State and Mississippi State in the Gator Bowl.
Now that Brady Hoke is in charge in Ann Arbor, there are questions as to whether the team's offense will still focus so heavily on Robinson's many talents or if the new regime will revert to a more traditional style of play to appease the fans and boosters.
If the latter proves to be the case, Robinson may quickly be exposed as merely a nice player whose profile was boosted by a system that catered directly to his abilities alone.
4. Terrelle Pryor, Quarterback, Ohio State
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Of course, no player in the Big Ten these days is more overhyped than Terrelle Pryor.
Since capturing the imagination of the college football world by stepping into the starting quarterback role at The Ohio State University as a freshman, the former high school prodigy has yet to deliver fully on the promise that once had so many scarlet-clad fans crying "Heisman!" before he ever set foot on campus.
Sure, the 6'6", 233-pound senior-to-be has taken steps forward on the field in each of his seasons in Columbus, leading the Buckeyes to back-to-back BCS victories in the Rose and Sugar Bowls.
However, Pryor's last hurrah will be cut significantly short by a five-game suspension handed down by the NCAA for selling personal memorabilia given to him by the school's athletic department for wins over Michigan, and by bowl personnel for winning post-season games.
As such, Pryor will have only seven or eight games to prove that was worth all of the hoopla with which he came to Columbus.
All signs point to the top high school player of the 2008 class as a long-shot for NFL success.
3. Kellen Moore, Quarterback, Boise State
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Who would've thunk that a quarterback from Boise State, of all schools, could get more love from the national sports media than a quarterback from vaunted Ohio State?
Such is the order of the day in college football, where Kellen Moore goes into his senior year on the Smurf Turf as a Heisman Trophy contender after making it to the ceremony in 2010.
As outstanding as Moore has been for Chris Petersen's club on the field—with a 99-to-19 TD-to-INT ratio and 10,867 in his three years as a starter in Boise—he has accumulated those numbers against competitors that, by and large, have proven vastly inferior to his team.
I know it's a bit antiquated to blame Moore for turning an unfavorable hand into a royal flush, per se.
But a move from the WAC to a Mountain West Conference without BYU and Utah won't do much to quell the notion that he and his Broncos mates have simply made their hay by beating up on the Blind Sisters of the Poor.
Because, in a power conference in which his team would have to play quality opponents week in and week out, the 6', 187-pound Moore would be hard-pressed to put up such jaw-droppingly gaudy numbers.
Plain and simple.
2. Matt Barkley, Quarterback, USC
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Which, somehow, brings us to Matt Barkley.
Like Moore in Boise, the latest Golden Boy to take the reigns at USC did so as a true freshman.
He beat out the likes of Aaron Corp and former Arkansas stand-out Mitch Mustain to become the first kid to start a season-opener for the Trojans fresh out of high school.
Since his auspicious debut, Barkley, the top prospect in his high school class nationally, has come back down to Earth somewhat, though his sophomore campaign (2,791 yards, 26 touchdowns, 12 interceptions) represented a marked improvement over his performance in 2009 as an 18-year-old.
That being said, Barkley's pre-ordained legacy as the greatest thing since sliced bread isn't likely to come to pass, if (partly) due to the past transgressions of the 'SC football program.
That is, without the chance to play in more than one big-time bowl game, Barkley will be (let the sobbing commence) deprived of the opportunity to cement himself as a Trojan legend.
And, frankly, he appears as likely as his predecessors to be the next NFL bust to wear Cardinal and Gold in college.
1. LaMichael James, Running Back, Oregon
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Now, tell me: Is it fair to label LaMichael James—the nation's leading rusher in 2010 and the best player on BCS runner-up Oregon—the most overrated player in the country?
To be honest, "fairness" has nothing to do with it.
In the end, history will show that, for all of his gifts of speed and agility, James is little more than the product of an admittedly brilliant offensive scheme designed by Chip Kelly.
Furthermore, as good as the Ducks may be in 2011 as the cream of the Pac-12 crop, the offense will have a hard time replicating its astounding performance as the most productive unit in all the land without the majority of last year's offensive line to block for James and without wide receivers like Jeff Maehl and D.J. Davis to force opposing defenses to respect Darron Thomas in the passing game.
And, if James' performance against an Auburn defense loaded with NFL-caliber talent (13 carries for 49 yards) is any indication as to how he would fare against quality competition, then it becomes even clearer that James' productivity is, indeed, the result of a particular system rather than simply the fruit of his own talent.
Hence, in the spirit of Seinfeld, I say to LaMichael James: "No Heisman for you!"
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