NBA 2008-9 Predictions: Southeast Division

On to the Eastern Conference....

Southeast Division

Orlando 52-30 (Last Year=52-30)

One of the top offensive teams in the east last year, they lost depth at PG (Carlos Arroyo, Keyon Dooling—who I like), but all the key players are back. With a reluctant passer in PG in Jameer Nelson, Hedo Turkoglu compensates by playing a decent point forward. While Rashard Lewis chucks treys, Howard controls the paint. It’s working pretty well so far.

The question is “How do they get better?”

My surprise answer is rebounding and low post help for Dwight Howard, who continues to grow. But I don’t see that on the roster right now. The team finally decided to give Nelson a long term contract. Will he end up rewarding them for doing that?

Washington 47-35 (LY=43-39)

Riddle me this....

How do the Wizards, a play-off team, have the league's worst assists differential (-4.3), the league's worst defense against the three-pointer (38.6%), give up the most three pointers (21.6) per game and still end up in the play-offs?

They allowed the third most assists (23.9) allowed while averaging a meager 19.6 assists themselves (fourth worst). That put them ahead of only the lowly Grizzlies, Kings, and Knicks (in that order)—believe it or not. And who wouldn't want to shoot the three against against this team? Oh yeah, their paint defense (57 percent immediately around the hoop) wasn't so great either, if you were thinking they were packing it in the middle.

So...what was holding them up with a plus .500 record and a play-off appearance? The answer? I don't know either but.....

Agent Zero is back, (update—not until December now) and so is Antawn Jamison and Caron Butler. They went 3-1 against the Celtics and 40-38 against the rest of the league. Hoopshype has Antonio Daniels ahead of Gilbert Arenas on their depth chart.

I guess that means, like many, they believe the Wiz are a better team without Arenas. One of the team’s problems was the post play and that is improving with Brendon Haywood and Andre Blatche. If this team will commit to defense they will step forward and possibly be a second round team.

They won’t. They aren’t.

Atlanta 40-42 (LY=37-45)

tThis is a critical year for Mike Woodson. He received two more years from new GM Rick Sund when many thought he wouldn’t. Coaching continuity counts they say.

The team must continue its improvement with the return of high flying Josh Smith. Mike Bibby helps just by being there all season. But the goal for this team now is to learn how to win on the road.

With Joe Johnson finally getting veteran help from Bibby, maybe they will. The highly publicized loss of Josh Childress to Europe was mitigated by adding Maurice Evans. Al Horford was a find, but Marvin Williams must become more than a shooter. Many poo-poo what they did in the play-offs, but I don't. With poise and confidence, this team could go higher.

Charlotte 35-47 (LY=32-50)

The Day the Earth Stood Still, one of sci-fi's greatest films from the 1950's is being remade for release this fall.

The Bobcats are "the team that stood still"….since they were born. 18.26,33,32 - those are the number of wins since their inception.

With a decent core of talent they have never been called overachievers. In fact, they surprise you by never surprising you.

Sam Vincent managed to last through a disappointing season. Now legendary Larry Brown now takes the reins. Looking to counteract the injury to his image and career that his last coaching stint in New York caused, Michael Jordan’s hand picked coach will get more out of this team than any of his predecessors. Emeka Okafor gets a big contract and now a coach who will demand more of him and his mates.

There is definite talent with SF Gerald Wallace, SG Jason Richardson and G Raymond Felton. It drops off sharply after that. Brown is known for not playing rookies, though that changed in NY and Charlotte has a good young PG in D.J. Augustin. Jared Dudley showed a bit last season.

Miami 35-47 (LY=15-67)

Dwyane Wade has fully recovered. Shawn Marion is in the house for the whole season (unless traded). Michael Beasley is suiting up. So is Mario Chalmers. Add Udonis Haslem and you can wave bye-bye to the Eastern Conference cellar.

But Pat Riley is no longer coaching and that tells you all you want to know about this team. Erik Spoelstra?

Sorry D. Wade fans. It will be a mediocre year at best for the Heat. If I’m wrong you can chalk it up underestimating Michael Beasley because we already know what Wade and Marion can do. Marcus Banks is their starting PG at the moment and Chris Quinn is the new Dan Dickau. Might that mean that Mourning would rather comeback elsewhere during the year? (a la PJ Brown?)

So, Orlando remains the cream of this division, but please don't tell Eddie Jordan's boys to talk less, pass more and play some D. They just might become a dangerous team.

Next up: Central Division

This article first appeared in Tom Halzack's blog at the Connecticut Post.