MLB Predictions: Picking Buster Posey and the 2011 NL West Preseason All-Stars
San Francisco Giants fans have waited since 1958 to celebrate a world championship, and they enjoyed every minute of it. Although the champagne has been consumed and the confetti has been swept away, the Giants and their fans have not yet allowed the joyous thrill of the 2010 World Series victory to fade away.
However, the first shout of "Play Ball" and the crack of the bat is just around the corner. The smell of hot dogs roasting and fresh-cut grass is just a few weeks away as spring training 2011 is about to begin.
I believe from top to bottom, the NL West is the strongest division in the National League. As we near the start of the 2011 season, let's take a position-by-position look at the preseason All Stars in the NL West.
Catcher: Buster Posey, San Francisco Giants
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The San Francisco Giants called Buster Posey up from the minors in late May of the 2010 season. Initially, he split time between first base and catcher. Then the Giants made the first of several excellent moves, which ultimately propelled this team to their first World Series championship in San Francisco.
Veteran Bengie Molina was traded to the Texas Rangers on June 30 and Buster Posey took over the regular catching duties for the Giants. In his first month with the Giants, Posey showed that he could hit big league pitching. The only question was whether he could handle the rigors of pitch selection, defense and game management behind the plate.
Posey was a quick study and learned quickly. He immediately paid dividends with his outstanding throwing ability. Opposing base runners had been stealing Molina and the Giant pitching staff blind. Posey, with his strong and accurate arm, put an end to that, which definitely helped the pitching staff.
Buster Posey worked hard to gain a comfort zone with all of the pitchers on the staff and also studied opposing hitters diligently. By the latter part of the 2010 season, during the stretch run and into the postseason, Posey started and caught every game.
Offensively, Buster Posey also delivered. In 405 AB's, Posey hit .305 with 18 home runs and 67 RBI. In addition, as the season progressed, Posey became the Giants' cleanup hitter. Not since Johnny Bench had a rookie catcher hit cleanup and made such a monster impact on his team and the league.
So good was Buster Posey, both offensively and defensively, that he was named the NL Rookie of the Year. With a full season from Posey in 2011, he and the Giants are expecting continued growth and big things this year.
First Base: Aubrey Huff, San Francisco Giants
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Aubrey Huff was not the Giants' first option at first base. This Giants had considered Nick Johnson, who ultimately signed with the Yankees, and also went after Adam LaRoche, who spurned them and signed with the Arizona Diamondbacks.
When Giants GM Brian Sabean and Huff completed a one-year deal for $3.5 million, there were doubters galore. Huff had just come off a poor season in 2009, where he hit just .241 with 15 homers for Baltimore and Detroit.
Huff would be 33 years old at the start of last season and there were also many concerns that he would be a defensive liability.
What happened in 2010 for Aubrey Huff and the Giants is the stuff of legend. He became a team leader and extremely popular with his teammates and fans for his positive, upbeat and charismatic attitude.
At $3.5 million, Aubrey Huff was perhaps the best 2010 free-agent acquisition for the money in all of baseball.
Aubrey Huff was re-energized, having the chance to play for a contending team for the first time after 10 straight losing seasons. He hit .290 with 26 homers and 86 RBI. His home run and RBI totals led the team and were no small feat considering how tough AT&T Park is on left-handed power hitters not named Barry Bonds.
The defensive worries that the media jumped on when the Giants signed him were way overblown. Aubrey Huff worked hard on his defense, both at first base and in the outfield. Huff handled first base very well and although he is not a fluid runner and looks rather awkward when chasing down fly balls, he played a very decent outfield.
Aubrey Huff will likely open the season at first base, allowing the Giants to give more minor league seasoning to their next prized rookie, Brandon Belt. I expect Belt, a first baseman, to be called up to the big club from Triple-A in midseason, much the same way the Giants did with Buster Posey. At that time we will likely see Huff shift to the outfield.
Aubrey Huff stated on many occasions that the 2010 season was his most enjoyable in his lengthy career. He had fun and the Giants players and fans loved him.
Huff even became a cult hero when he stated that he had been wearing a red thong under his uniform, which had been given to him by his wife for luck. The red thong took on a life of its own and was viewed as a good luck omen by the Giants and their fans.
I fully expect Aubrey Huff to continue to play good baseball and produce for the Giants in 2011. In addition to signing a two-year deal for roughly $22 million, Huff is happy and excited to be playing with this group, including his old pal Pat Burrell.
Huff went from almost quitting baseball after 2009 to now being like an excited kid playing for the love of the game again. That enjoyment and rekindled passion for the game will carry Huff again in 2011.
Second Base: Kelly Johnson, Arizona Diamondbacks
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Our 2011 NL West preseason All-Star second baseman is Kelly Johnson. After a very poor 2009 season with the Braves, Kelly Johnson was not tendered a contract. Arizona signed him to a very modest one-year, $2.35 million contract and he paid off handsomely for the D-Backs.
Kelly Johnson hit .284 with 26 home runs and 71 RBI for Arizona. He even added in 13 stolen bases in 2010. Johnson's RBI totals would have been higher if not for the low on-base percentage of the hitters batting ahead of him.
Kelly Johnson seems very happy with his place on the D-Backs and should continue to excel in Arizona.
Johnson is the only second baseman in the division that can combine power and run production with a decent batting average. The other top second basemen in the NL West, such as Juan Uribe, Orlando Hudson and Freddy Sanchez, are much more one-dimensional on offense.
Kelly Johnson is not the best defensive second baseman in the division—I would give that nod to Hudson or Sanchez—but he is adequate. His offense is what sets him apart and gives him my preseason vote for the NL West All-Star squad.
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Shortstop: Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado Rockies
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With all due respect to Hanley Ramirez, Troy Tulowitzki is the best shortstop in the National League. He combines outstanding power with a good batting average and above-average speed to lead the Colorado Rockies offensively.
Tulowitzki has also developed into a solid defensive player and won his first Gold Glove in 2010. He is the unquestioned leader of the Rockies and he has responded well to the challenge.
Troy Tulowitzki is now showing the consistency of production that's required in order to be called a superstar. In 2009, Tulowitzki played in 151 games and hit 32 homers, with 92 RBI and 20 steals.
In 2010, Tulowitzki missed a significant amount of time due to injury. Although he only played in 122 games and had just 470 at-bats, Tulowitzki still hit 27 home runs, had 95 RBI and 11 stolen bases. He was named to his first All-Star team last year, also.
The Colorado Rockies were chasing both the Padres and the Giants for the NL West crown. In September, Troy Tulowitzki did everything he could to bring the Rockies another division title. He hit 15 of his 27 home runs in September and was the most feared hitter in the league down the stretch.
Troy Tulowitzki will be only 26 years old when the 2011 season begins. He is entering the prime of his career and over the next several years, he will undoubtedly continue to be a productive and feared hitter, as long as he stays healthy.
Third Base: Pablo Sandoval, San Francisco Giants
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The third base position was a tough one for me to decide on for our All-Star selection. Ian Stewart, Casey Blake and Chase Headley all received consideration. I ultimately chose Pablo Sandoval, as he has the biggest upside of all the third basemen in the NL West.
In 2010, Sandoval struggled with his weight and his confidence level. While his weight soared, the Kung Fu Panda's batting average fell. I would bet that his weight actually eclipsed his batting average by the end of the season, as Sandoval ended the year hitting only .268, compared with a .330 average in 2009.
Pablo Sandoval's power numbers also fell dramatically. He went from 25 home runs in 2009 to only 13 in 2010. The Panda also had only 63 RBI, as opposed to 90 in 2009.
Opposing pitchers capitalized on Sandoval's undisciplined approach at the plate and knew they could get him to fish for pitches in the dirt or up at his eyes. One of the keys to Sandoval's resurgence in 2011 will be whether he can develop the plate discipline to not get himself out by swinging at pitches that are not hittable.
Sandoval's excess weight also affected his play in the field. An above-average defensive third baseman in 2009, he was terrible in 2010. His poor defense forced manager Bruce Bochy to sit Sandoval down the stretch and into the postseason.
General Manager Brian Sabean has stated that a big league job is not guaranteed for Sandoval in 2011. If the Kung Fu Panda does not come into camp in significantly better shape, he will be sent to the Giants' Triple-A affiliate in Fresno.
Sandoval seems to have taken Sabean's threat to heart as he reportedly has lost 20 pounds and has worked hard to improve his conditioning. If Sandoval can come close to his 2009 play, he will provide a big lift to the Giants and will be well deserving of our All-Star nod in 2011.
Outfield: Carlos Gonzalez, Colorado Rockies
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The Colorado Rockies have found a gem in Carlos Gonzalez. He is arguably the best all-around player in the National League at this time.
Carlos Gonzalez was acquired by the Colorado Rockies in the deal that sent Matt Holliday to the Oakland A's prior to the 2009 season. This is one of those rare trades where Oakland GM Billy Beane gave up a top prospect for an expensive star. I'm sure the A's wish they had never made that deal as Holliday spent only half the season with the A's and Gonzalez is fulfilling his enormous promise in Colorado.
Carlos Gonzalez is the rare "five-tool player" who can run, hit for average, hit for power, is an excellent defensive player, and can throw. With Gonzalez and Tulowitzki, the Rockies have two budding superstars in the heart of their lineup.
Carlos Gonzalez led the National League with a .336 batting average in 2010. He also had 34 home runs, 117 RBI and 26 stolen bases. Gonzalez leads our list of preseason All-Star outfielders as we approach the 2011 season.
He is a legitimate Triple Crown threat as we head into the 2011 season.
Outfield: Justin Upton, Arizona Diamondbacks
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Justin Upton is a tremendous athlete with a world of talent. After a fine season in 2009, when he was an All-Star, Upton had a down year in 2010.
At only 23 years old, the sky is the limit for Justin Upton. In 2009, Upton hit .300 with 26 homers, 86 RBI and 20 stolen bases. It appeared as though Upton had arrived and was on his way to becoming a superstar.
In 2010, Upton had a difficult year. He hit only .273 with 17 home runs, 69 RBI and 18 steals. The decline of Upton's power numbers was especially noteworthy, as the Diamondbacks play in a very hitter-friendly ballpark.
Justin Upton has outstanding athletic ability and even though he is very young, he will be entering his fifth year in the big leagues. The comfort level he should have in the majors will serve him well as he attempts to harness his enormous potential.
I believe Justin Upton will get off to a good start in 2011 and that will merit his preseason NL West All-Star selection. He is poised for a breakout season and this could be it.
Outfield: Matt Kemp, Los Angeles Dodgers
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The final two outfield spots came down to three players: Justin Upton, Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier. With all due respect to Ethier, who is a fine player, I have selected Upton and Matt Kemp. The upside of Upton is too tempting to pass up and even though Kemp had a down year in 2010, he still had more home runs and RBI than Ethier.
Dodgers manager Joe Torre expressed a lot of frustration over Kemp's play in 2010. Torre felt that Kemp's play was often very lackadaisical and that Kemp was not getting the most from his athletic ability.
In truth, I think Torre was correct in his assessment. Kemp frequently did not appear to be giving 100 percent on the field and he often appeared disinterested. Nevertheless, Kemp played in all 162 games for the Dodgers.
Don Mattingly takes over as the new skipper of the Dodgers, replacing Torre. Mattingly shows his love of the game and played it with such a passion that he was nicknamed "Donny Baseball." Some of this passion should rub off on Matt Kemp, who should be much more focused and engaged this year.
A more focused Matt Kemp will shine in 2011. I expect a significant jump in his totals from 2010, especially with his batting average, which was just .249.
Starting Pitcher: Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants
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Tim Lincecum headlines the list of starting pitchers for my preseason NL West All-Star team. The two-time Cy Young Award winner has added the title of World Series champion to his list of impressive accomplishments.
Tim Lincecum is the only pitcher in major league history to win the Cy Young Award in his first two full seasons. Then, in 2010, he had some struggles, especially in the month of August when he made five starts, was far from dominant and failed to notch a victory.
Lincecum rebounded with a solid September and also pitched well in the postseason. He attributed his struggles in August to less strenuous workouts and not playing long toss between starts. This weakened his arm strength and overall conditioning, as Lincecum lost velocity and had trouble putting hitters away.
Lincecum was not being lazy—he thought he was saving the wear and tear on his body. That plan backfired and once Lincecum got back into his more rigorous workout routine and resumed his long toss throwing program, his arm strength improved and so did his performances.
Even with what could be deemed a bit of a down year, Tim Lincecum still won 16 games against 10 losses and had a very respectable 3.43 ERA. He threw 212 regular season innings and struck out a league-leading 231 batters. We should all have "down" years like this.
Lincecum's postseason numbers indicated that he had regained his form. He faced some of the best hitting teams in baseball in the Braves, Phillies and Rangers and was able to shut them down.
In five postseason starts and six overall appearances, Lincecum went 4-1 with an ERA of 2.43, and struck out 43 in 37 innings. His WHIP ratio, which measures the total number of hits and walks allowed per innings pitched, was an incredible 0.919.
I fully expect Tim Lincecum to have an excellent 2011 season. I predict he will have another Cy Young-caliber year in 2011. Whether he wins the award or not depends on a myriad of factors, but I believe Lincecum will definitely be in the discussion.
Tim Lincecum learned from his lapse in conditioning and will come into spring training in good shape and will keep it up throughout the season. I have picked him as the number one starter for my preseason NL West All-Star team.
Starting Pitcher: Ubaldo Jimenez, Colorado Rockies
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Ubaldo Jimenez can be one of the most dominating pitchers in all of baseball. He has incredible stuff that's virtually untouchable when he's on.
Jimenez started the 2010 season and was indeed virtually untouchable. His numbers tailed off a bit in the latter stages of 2010, but he was still a top pitcher in the National League.
Ubaldo Jimenez won 19 games against only eight losses and had an ERA of 2.88. He threw 221 2/3 innings and struck out 214 opposing batters.
What is all the more impressive with these stats is that Jimenez pitches in a hitter's paradise in Colorado. Not only do balls travel farther in the thin air of Denver, but the expansive outfield leaves many holes for singles and doubles to fall in. Jimenez's WHIP ratio of 1.155 is outstanding given the ballpark where he plays half his games.
Ubaldo Jimenez is 27 years old and in the prime of his career. I fully expect him to continue his dominance in 2011.
Starting Pitcher: Mat Latos, San Diego Padres
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In his first full year in the majors, Mat Latos emerged as the ace of the San Diego pitching staff. The Padre offense was very inconsistent in 2010 and it was their pitching that almost earned them the NL West crown, until the Giants caught and passed them in September.
Mat Latos headed up this impressive array of starters and was their "horse" all year long. At 6'6" and 220 pounds, Latos is an imposing presence on the mound for the Padres.
In 2010, Latos made 31 starts, about two or three less than many of the other top pitchers in the National League. He won 14 games against 10 defeats. His ERA was an impressive 2.92 and his low WHIP ratio of 1.083 proved his dominance.
Manager Bud Black, a former pitcher himself, monitored Latos, his pitch counts and innings very carefully. Latos threw 184 2/3 innings in 2010 and had 189 strikeouts.
The Padres hope that Mat Latos can elevate his game and throw upwards of 200 innings in the 2011 season. With the departure of Adrian Gonzalez, their top offensive player, San Diego will need strong performances from Latos and their entire pitching staff to stay in the hunt for the NL West title this year.
Starting Pitcher: Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers
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Clayton Kershaw enters his fourth season with the LA Dodgers. At only 23 years old, Kershaw is already a veteran and a leader of the Dodger pitching staff.
His 2010 record was only 13-10, but could have been much better had the Dodger offense not had so much trouble scoring runs. Kershaw had a stellar ERA of 2.91 and WHIP ratio of 1.179.
2010 marked the first time in his career that Kershaw threw over 200 innings, as he finished the year with 204 1/3. He also had 212 strikeouts to lead the Dodgers.
Clayton Kershaw has the stuff to be one of the top pitchers in the National League for years to come. He now has the experience to go with his dynamic pitches.
I expect Clayton Kershaw to have a good year and continue his ascension as the ace of the LA Dodger pitching staff.
Starting Pitcher: Matt Cain, San Francisco Giants
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The San Francisco Giants have the luxury of two aces in their starting rotation. This is incredible, especially considering many teams are searching for just one pitcher they can call an ace.
Matt Cain has been the model of consistency for the Giants over the past five seasons. He has made between 31 and 34 starts in each of those years and thrown over 200 innings in each of the last four seasons.
At 6'3" and 245 pounds, Cain has the frame to handle the workload. His powerful delivery utilizes his legs and trunk very well, which also eases the strain on his pitching arm. This has allowed Cain to throw the high number of innings he has year after year.
The amazing thing is that Cain, at only 26 years of age, has achieved the level of reliability a team can only dream about. Cain is now entering his seventh season in San Francisco and there's nothing to suggest that he won't continue to excel.
In 2010, Matt Cain won 13 games against 11 losses, but his 3.14 ERA suggests he should have fared much better. In truth, his winning percentage should have been much better except for the fact that the Giants offense often let him down.
Matt Cain threw extremely well down the stretch and in the postseason. His reliability was evident as Cain threw 223 1/3 innings in the regular season and another 21 1/3 in the post season.
In Cain's three postseason starts, he was 2-0 with an ERA of 0.00. Matt Cain did not allow an earned run in any of his postseason appearances. His WHIP ratio of 0.938 was also incredible.
In the pressure-packed stretch run, as the Giants caught and passed San Diego, followed by the postseason, Matt Cain was the pitcher the Giants knew they could count on to perform, and he certainly did so. When the lights were the brightest, Matt Cain shined the most.
Relief Pitcher: Brian Wilson, San Francisco Giants
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Brian Wilson is the top closer in the National League and, with all due respect to Mariano Rivera, is arguably the best closer in the game today.
Wilson is also quite a character with his freakishly dark beard, penchant for wearing bright orange spikes and a neighbor dressed with in full BDSM black leather attire named "The Machine."
The beard took on a life of it's own as the Giants and their fans started a "Fear The Beard" campaign which caught on and became a rallying cry. The Machine became a cult hero, as Wilson introduced the leather-clad masked man to the media. Many think The Machine is Pat Burrell in disguise, but we don't know for sure.
When Major League Baseball threatened to fine Wilson for the bright orange spikes, saying the main color of the shoes had to be black or the primary color of the uniform, Wilson, undaunted, took a black marker to the spikes and colored in just over 50 percent of the shoes to comply with the league rules.
Brian Wilson is a well respected and well liked teammate as well as a fan favorite. His off-the-wall personality and humorous nature caught on with the Giants and their fans. All of this works when the Giants are winning and Wilson is doing well.
Wilson also has an IQ at the genius level and often seems to think at a far deeper level than what is merited by the typical questions asked by the media.
Do not think for an instant that Brian Wilson is all flash and no substance. Wilson led the league in saves with 48, including 10 that were greater than three outs. No closer came close to the number of saves Wilson earned that were greater than three outs. His ERA of 1.81 was also very good.
Brian Wilson was also clutch in the playoffs as he threw 11 2/3 innings and did not give up an earned run. He recorded one win and six saves in the postseason. His 0.00 ERA went along with a great WHIP ratio of 0.771.
Brian Wilson is the closer for my preseason NL West All-Star team.
Relief Pitcher: Heath Bell, San Diego Padres
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Heath Bell had an outstanding season in 2010. He was named the top relief pitcher in the National League for his 6-1 record and 47 saves. His ERA was an excellent 1.93.
Although the Padres traded star first baseman Adrian Gonzalez for some young prospects, they are trying to keep the core of their pitching staff together. Heath Bell solidifies the back end of the bullpen and for a team that won't score an enormous number of runs, especially in their spacious home ballpark, a strong bullpen will be essential to their success.
Heath Bell is 33 years old and carries a lot of weight, so the Padres will need to watch him closely for any signs that he may be wearing down. If San Diego starts off poorly in 2011, Bell, one of their higher-priced players at $7.5 million, could be trade bait.
On the flip side, if the pitching comes through and the Padres get enough offense, Heath Bell will be counted on to close out those close games, just like he did in 2010. If Bell can approach his numbers from last year, he and the San Diego Padres will be in the hunt again in the coming year.
Relief Pitcher: Hong-Chih Kuo, Los Angeles Dodgers
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Over the past three seasons, Hong-Chih Kuo was one of the top left-handed relievers in the league. He excelled against tough left-handed hitters late in games. Not just a pitcher called on to get left-handed batters out, Kuo was also effective against right-handed hitters.
The 2010 season was a tough one for the Dodger bullpen. Closer Jonathan Broxton struggled mightily and manager Joe Torre frequently called on Hong-Chih Kuo to finish out games for the Dodgers.
Kuo has had arm troubles in the past, so Torre was careful not to over-pitch Kuo. He generally did not pitch two days in a row and Torre managed his workload very well. Hong-Chih Kuo responded beautifully and had his best year as a Dodger.
Kuo threw 60 innings, struck out 73 and had a record of 3-2, with 12 saves. Kuo's ERA of 1.20 was outstanding, as was his WHIP ratio of 0.783.
The Dodgers are hoping for a rebound from Jonathan Broxton, which would move Kuo back to the left handed set up man role. If Broxton falters, new manager Don Mattingly won't hesitate to install Kuo in the closer role.
Kuo is an extremely valuable pitcher and is a good choice for the 2011 preseason NL West All-Star team.
Manager: Bruce Bochy, San Francisco Giants
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Every All-Star team needs a manager, and my selection for this team is Bruce Bochy. Bochy did a tremendous job guiding the Giants to their first world championship in San Francisco. He masterfully mixed and matched his players to the NL West title, then through the playoffs and past the Texas Rangers to win the World Series.
As I now look back on this NL West preseason All-Star team, I would put this group up against any team from any division in baseball. The powerful pitching staff assembled for the NL West team is better than any staff another division could put together.
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