2011 MLB Fantasy Baseball: First Base Rankings

I think there is a misconception about the depth of the first base position.

Sure, there are a good 10 players that will all be pretty solid contributors to your team, but most likely eight of them will be gone in the first two rounds, so if you don’t act quickly you could be dealing with a little lesser talent.  Also, a lot of leagues require a corner infielder, and there sure isn’t enough talent at the third base position. 

There are a number of prospects and second-year guys who could jump up and surprise us, but I certainly want one of the top five or six guys on my team. 

So, while first base has always been one of the easiest positions to fill, it isn’t what it used to be. Now there are guys who either hit just home runs and a terrible average, or guys who have a good batting average but hit 10-15 home runs, either of which can be detrimental to you winning a championship.  For the latest in breaking fantasy news, please check us out at www.FantasyAlarm.com. As always your comments and questions are welcome at [e-mail]. I guarantee a response within 18 hours.

Don't forget to check out our "Where Are They Now?" to see how all of the offseason changes will impact your fantasy baseball draft this year. Listen to The Fantasy Alarm Show LIVE every Tuesday (9:30 p.m. EST), Friday (9 p.m. EST) & Sunday night (10 p.m. EST) for all the latest fantasy sports news, information and entertainment. Take Fantasy Alarm to your draft this year and relax knowing you have all the information you need to draft a winner in 2011. 

(2010 final statistics in italics)

1. Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals        
.312 average, 42 homers, 118 RBI, 14 SBs, 115 runs

He was in the triple crown race up until the final couple of weeks in the season, and although many times the number one overall pick doesn’t live up to expectations, Pujols always does. He is as much of a sure thing as scoring with the slutty girl on prom night. 

He not only is always in the lineup, but he helps you in basically every category. Even though he isn’t a speed demon, Pujols is always good for about ten swipes.  Even though shortstop is very thin and some might tell you to pick Hanley Ramirez first, in my opinion there is no other player you can consider if you have the first pick other than Pujols. 

2. Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers
.328 average, 38 homers, 126 RBI, 3 SBs, 111 runs

He put the questions about his work ethic and the ridiculous alcohol problems behind him and had another MONSTER season. He hasn’t been under 34 home runs or 100 RBI in the last four years, and has been under .300 only once over that span. He might be fat, but he is incredibly consistent, something that we all crave from our early-round picks.

Personally, I am not the biggest Miggy fan in the world, but you can’t argue with his production. He is a perfect pick from about the fourth selection on, and even though he doesn’t bring you any speed, he does so much else that he can lead your team to a championship. 

3. Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds
.324 average, 37 homers, 113 RBI, 16 SBs, 106 runs

I heart Joey Votto.  No, I mean it, I really heart the guy. The dreamy smile, the dark eyes...oh wait, where was I?

He had a solid rookie season before some difficult to explain ailments and dizziness cost him a decent part of his sophomore campaign. Well, Votto not only proved that he was for real, but went as so far to win the NL MVP in 2010. I do think that the 16 steals were a fluke thing, but the average and the power numbers are legitimate for Votto and while he might not reach 37 dingers again, I don’t see any reason why he can’t hit 33-35 again in 2011.  He is a great middle of the first round pick and fantasy players shouldn’t have questions about Votto being for real. 

4. Ryan Howard, Philadelphia Phillies
.276 average, 31 homers, 108 RBI, 1 SB, 87 runs

It was certainly an off year for Howard as far as the home runs were concerned, which is saying something considering he still hit 31 bombs. The batting average has been all over the map for Howard during his career, but just the mere fact that I said that 31 homers was an off year tells you what you can expect from Howard. 

Howard is strong like bull, and is a monster with the bat in his hands. Your first baseman should be a guy who hits for a decent average and hits you a truckload of home runs and that is exactly what you get from Howard. He likely will slip into the second round, and if you get him there you should be thrilled. 

5. Adrian Gonzalez, Boston Red Sox
.298 average, 31 homers, 101 RBI, 87 runs

He is going to move up a few spots after being traded from San Diego to Boston. 

 Not only is he now a part of a much better lineup, but he gets out of one of the biggest stadiums in baseball.  He hasn’t hit for as high of an average as some of the other elite first basemen, as well as having no speed, but you should expect a nice jump in stats from Gonzalez in his new surroundings. 

I think that Gonzalez is going to be drafted far ahead of where he was last year, at least 10 picks, and I don’t know if I agree with that. I think Gonzalez is an early-to-mid second round pick and I am not sure I buy into the fact that his RBI and runs scored are going to go up.

6. Mark Teixeira, New York Yankees
.256 average, 33 homers, 108 RBI, 113 runs

Another one of the most consistent producers in baseball, Teixeira has had at least 30 homers and 105 RBI in every season since 2004. What in the world happened to his batting average last year, I will never figure out. I guess hitting in the middle of a world class batting order with All-Stars at every position threw him off. Tex probably figured that he should make some outs as to not hurt the other team’s feelings and that is why he only hit in the .250s. 

He will be 31 years old shortly after the season starts and should have many good years left in him. Look for Teixeira to get back into the .280s with 35 homers at a minimum and another 120 RBI as the Yankees continue to beat the hell out of the lesser teams in the major leagues. 

7. Prince Fielder, Milwaukee Brewers
.261 average, 32 homers, 83 RBI, 1 SB, 94 runs

Like Howard, it was a “disappointing” season for Fielder. 

He had his fewest home run total since his first full season in the majors, as well as his lowest batting average by 10 full points.  On a positive note though, Fielder did have one stolen base, which tells me either the catcher lost the ball, was blind or they told Fielder there was a cheesesteak waiting for him at second base. 

It was a very difficult season for Fielder as he was the subject of trade rumors for most of the summer and it seemed like he didn’t want to be in Milwaukee anymore. This will be a telling season for Fielder and I think that he will respond in a big way. I expect his batting average to go up 15 points and he should approach 40 home runs again. 

8. Justin Morneau, Minnesota Twins
.345 average, 18 homers, 56 RBI, 53 runs (81 games)

There’s a scrambled egg and Denny’s Restaurant joke in there somewhere, but I am not going to joke this time about a concussion that cost Morneau the entire second half of the season and the short playoff life that the Twins had.  He was on his way to one of the best season of his career, and he already has two MVPs. 

I think that Morneau is going to be disrespected in drafts this season because of his injury last year and if you don’t get a first baseman in one of the first couple of rounds, Morneau is someone you can jump on a little later and reap huge rewards. As long as he is able to stay healthy you should have a lock for a .300 average, 30 bombs, and 100 RBI. 

9. Kendry Morales, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
.290 average, 11 homers, 39 RBI, 29 runs (51 games)

I am still laughing at the fact that this guy missed two-thirds of the season after breaking his leg slipping on home plate during a home-plate celebration after hitting a walk-off home run. 

There were questions coming into 2010 whether Morales was a one-year wonder or not, but the way the season had started it seemed like he was going to have another great year. Now, he will be back at full strength for the Angels in 2011, and he should be considered one of the top first basemen in the major leagues. He could be a bit of a bargain if some fantasy players forget about him or don’t have faith in him after his injury. Morales will be good to go and he should have no ill effects in 2011. 

10. Adam Dunn, Chicago White Sox
.260 average, 38 homers, 103 RBI, 85 runs

After Dunn had five straight seasons of 40-plus home runs from 2004-2008, he had his second straight of ONLY 38 last season.  However, I think that can be explained by the fact that going to Washington immediately sucks 10 percent of your talent out of your body, so in reality he hit nearly 42 home runs if he was playing somewhere else. 

He also got his strikeouts down in 2010 when he only struck out...oh wait, forget that part, he had a WHOPPING 199 whiffs. Thanks to Mark Reynolds for keeping Dunn out of the books.  Now Dunn goes to a place with a good lineup and in a much smaller ballpark which bodes well for him to get back over 40 home runs again. He is never going to lead your team to a batting title, but Dunn is automatic power, and since he doesn’t get a ton of respect, you can usually get him a couple of rounds later than you probably should. 

11. Paul Konerko, Chicago White Sox
.312 average, 39 homers, 111 RBI, 89 runs

In 2008 and 2009, Konerko had started to fall from the ranks of viable fantasy players, but something happened to him last year and he went OFF! 

Konerko started the season strong and never looked back on his way to the second best batting average of his career, and the most home runs that he has had since 2005. 

 So, what should you expect from Konerko in 2011? 

It is hard to say as he will split some time between first base and DH with the arrival of Adam Dunn, which could help his production. I really can’t see his batting average staying near .300 as it hadn’t been anywhere near that in years, and was as low as .240 just two years ago. I do like Konerko, but I think because of his amazing year last season he will likely be drafted higher than he should and unless it is the seventh or eighth round you should probably let someone else take him. 

12. Adam LaRoche, Washington Nationals
.261 average, 25 homers, 100 RBI, 75 runs

He is far from a superstar, but LaRoche is a consistent producer year in and year out no matter what team he is on. 

I know that I said during the Adam Dunn piece that playing in Washington immediately saps 10 percent of your talent out of you, but LaRoche used to play for the Pirates and also for the horrible Diamondbacks last season, so he seems to be immune to the terrible team curse. I definitely wouldn’t want him to be my starting first baseman every single day, but if your league requires a corner infielder or a utility player, you might be hard pressed to find a better option than LaRoche. 

13. Billy Butler, Kansas City Royals
.318 average, 15 homers, 78 RBI, 77 runs

One of my bigger personal disappointments of 2010, Butler started out well, but the power just didn’t come and falling short of 80 RBI also let me down. 

After his 21 home run season in 2009, I expected him to completely break out after he showed incredible power in the minor leagues. Butler seems to be a lock to continue to hit for a good batting average, but it is still unsure if his power will develop. He will be just 25 years old once the season starts, so there is still plenty of time for him to live up to his hype. 

 I still have faith in Butler and will be drafting him again in upcoming drafts.  He is a bit risky, but he is a guy that is worth taking the chance on with a possibility for a huge reward. 

14. Ike Davis, New York Mets
.264 average, 19 homers, 71 RBI, 3 SBs, 73 runs

The Mets’ first-round pick in 2008, Davis came to the majors last season, and I have to say, did pretty decent in his near 525 at bats. 

He will be 24 years old when the season starts, and I think that he will still improve.  He was a prolific hitter in college, and he hit for a great batting average in the minors as well. I am curious to see how his power will translate to the majors, especially in spacious Citi Field, but Davis hit eight of his 19 home runs at home, so it didn’t seem to have an enormous effect on his output. 

I can’t think of any successful athlete named Ike, but I do think that Davis will hit for a better average in his sophomore season and I think he also has a real chance to get to 25 home runs as well. He will bring you almost no speed, but by the time you have to draft Davis, that isn’t important at all. 

15. Aubrey Huff, San Francisco Giants
.290 average, 26 homers, 86 RBI, 7 SBs, 100 runs

It has been a bit of a wild ride the past few years for Huff as he was amazing in 2008, pretty awful in 2009, and then he was pretty good again last season in leading the Giants to a World Series title. 

He is 34 years old and his statistics have been all over the map throughout his career.  Personally, I don’t think that Huff is going to come close to replicating his numbers of last year and will definitely be drafted too soon. I expect his batting average to drop 30 points, and if he were to surpass 20 home runs I would be surprised.  He is another guy that someone will draft expecting him to be a viable candidate to be their first baseman, but he is no better than a utility player, or even better a injury replacement. 

16. Carlos Pena, Chicago Cubs
.196 average, 28 homers, 84 RBI, 5 SBs, 64 runs

OK, so he was never Tony Gwynn with the batting average, but .196 Carlos?  Seriously?  Couldn’t keep it over the Mendoza Line (That’s a .200 batting average for those of you new to baseball)? 

Pena always seems to miss 20-25 games due to injury, but he also has been usually good for 30-40 home runs. Last season he failed to get to 30 and also missed 18 games. 

Pena will now call the friendly confines of Wrigley Field home, and that should help all of his numbers increase in 2011. He will likely still only hit about .240, but I think he is a guarantee to get to about 35 home runs considering he stays healthy. 

17. Gaby Sanchez, Florida Marlins
.273 average, 19 homers, 85 RBI, 5 SBs, 72 runs

I think that even though he wasn’t a superstar, you have to call his rookie season a success. 

You would have liked to see him hit for a little higher average like he did when he was in the minors, but I think the power numbers are about what you should expect. Sanchez could get to about 22 or 23 home runs, but he is never going to be a big time power hitter. He is going to be a corner infielder or utility player, and as long as you use him in that role you should be happy with Gaby if you draft him. 

18. Adam Lind, Toronto Blue Jays
.237 average, 23 homers, 72 RBI, 57 runs

This should be an interesting season for Lind as not only is he going back into playing the field for the first time in years, but he is also looking to have a bounce back at the plate after his batting average dipped 70 points from 2009 and he had 40 fewer RBI. 

He should be a nice sleeper as a middle-to-late round selection as he has to hit better than .237. Lind has a ton of talent and could be a 30-homer guy again, but I wouldn’t want him starting as my number one first baseman. He is a great option if you need a corner infielder or a utility player, but the chance is there that he crushes your batting average category. 

19. Derrek Lee, Baltimore Orioles
.260 average, 19 homers, 80 RBI, 1 SB, 80 runs

After an amazing 2009 season, Lee’s numbers took a huge nosedive last year, and at 35 years old and an injury history a mile long, you have to wonder if this is the beginning of the end of a great career for Lee. 

He goes to the American League for the first time, and unfortunately doesn’t exactly find a team with a heavyweight lineup to protect him. It's no Wrigley Field, but Camden Yards isn’t exactly PetCo Park either, so his new home park shouldn’t have a huge impact on his numbers. Lee’s average might go up a little bit, but I think his days of hitting .300 are behind him, and I think he will max out at 22 home runs. 

Lee is at best a corner infielder or utility player at this point in his career, and I am not even sure I like him for that anymore. 

20. James Loney, Los Angeles Dodgers
.267 average, 10 homers, 88 RBI, 10 SBs, 67 runs

Loney’s career to this point has been one story: a good average with hardly any power, but a pretty good number of RBI is what you get with Loney. 

However, in 2010, the RBI were still there but the batting average took a dive for the fourth straight year all the way down to .267. His stolen bases were at a career high, but when that number is 10 does that really matter? I have to say that I have never owned James Loney in any league I have ever played in during my fantasy career, and that is one fact that I don’t think will change in the future. I do believe that his batting average will improve, but I really don’t see Loney being a fantasy factor in 2011 or at any point during his career. 

21. Dan Johnson, Tampa Bay Rays
.198 average, 7 homers, 23 RBI, 1 SB, 15 runs (40 games)

Johnson has always been a pretty decent minor league hitter, at least for power, but between injuries and inconsistency he has never put it together for any stretch of time in the majors. He did look pretty good in 2010 in his short time at first for the Rays, including a couple of game-winning home runs against the Yankees. 

It seems right now that Johnson will start the year as the starting first sacker for the Rays and there is a chance that he could bring you some value, at least in the power department. There is no reason to think that he is going to be anything more than an injury replacement, but if you like to gamble he could pay off.   

22. Michael Young, Texas Rangers
.281 average, 21 homers, 91 RBI, 4 SBs, 99 runs

With the signing of Adrian Beltre, that will likely put Young across the diamond to first base since the Rangers don’t have a reliable option there. 

Young has been a professional hitter throughout his career, always hitting for a pretty good batting average and a little bit of power. He is nearing the end of his career now, but showed last season that he is still a viable hitter. 

I am not sure that I expect him to reach the 20 home run plateau again or the near 100 runs, but I think he will hit .295 with 17 or 18 home runs. At other positions that will make you a pretty decent option, but at first base that is nothing that should excite you. The good news for Young, or for those who have him, is that he still should be eligible at third base this year which is a much better place to put him. 

23. Brandon Allen, Arizona Diamondbacks
.267 average, one homer, 6 RBI, 5 runs (22 games)

Allen was acquired from the White Sox a couple of seasons ago for basically nothing and now he looks like he will be the starting first baseman for the Diamondbacks. 

Allen was a prolific power hitter in the minors; unfortunately he needs to get his strikeouts under control. However, he could be a huge power sleeper if he is indeed given the starting job this season. He did pretty decent in his cup of coffee with Arizona last September and with some more experience he could be even better. 

 At some point in his career Allen is going to be a great home runner hitter but you can’t rely that he is going to be a star right from the start. 

24. Kila Ka’aihue, Kansas City Royals
.217 average, 8 homers, 25 RBI, 22 runs (52 games)

Ka’aihue has been incredibly inconsistent with his batting average in his time in the minors, but he has always been a guy who hits for good power, including a 37-homer season in 2008 in just 124 games. 

 He got a chance to prove what he was worth a little bit with the Royals last season and it was more of the same. Not a lot of batting average but a good number of home runs. He has a decent batting eye for a power hitter and should be able to get regular at-bats this year sharing time at first and DH with Billy Butler. 

If you are in a deep league he might be a good corner infield option, but at least at the beginning of the season he is best kept to your bench to see how he performs. 

25. Matt LaPorta, Cleveland Indians
.221 average, 12 homers, 41 RBI, 41 runs

Once one of the hottest prospect in all of baseball, LaPorta’s stock plummeted last season after he was unable to hit major-league pitching on a consistent basis.

However, you can’t forget about the potential that this kid has.

He hit 20 homers in half a season at Double-A and 17 in just over half a season at Triple-A. Lots of young players struggle in their early tours in the major leagues, so don’t lose total faith in LaPorta just yet. He obviously has much more value in keeper league than in a seasonal league for the chance he will live up to his top prospect status. 

He will likely get drafted in most leagues in case he does have a huge breakout season, but just be sure you don’t reach too far in advance for LaPorta.   

26. Freddie Freeman, Atlanta Braves
.167 average, one homer, one RBI, 3 runs

With the departure of Derrek Lee, Freeman appears to have the inside track on the first base job for Atlanta. 

He isn’t a massive power hitter, more along the lines of a Gaby Sanchez, but he should hit for a better average.  He is dealing with a thumb injury which limited his time in the Arizona Fall League, but he is expected to be ready in time for Spring Training. The Braves always seem to find these little diamonds in the rough, so Freeman is looking like an intriguing sleeper, but being a rookie I don’t think that you should trust having him in your starting lineup for 2011. 

27. Brett Wallace, Houston Astros
.222 average, 2 homers, 13 RBI, 14 runs (50 games)

He might have struggled in his time in the majors last season, but Wallace had an incredibly impressive college and minor league career, and most people still think it is just a matter of time before he is going to be a successful hitter in the majors. 

He basically has no competition for the first base spot in Houston and should have a very long leash even if he starts out the season slowly. He projects to be a guy who can hit .285 with 30 homers and 100 RBI at some point in his career. That might not be 2011, but before too long Wallace should be a force in fantasy baseball. 

28. Justin Smoak, Seattle Mariners
.218 average, 13 homers, 48 RBI, 1 SB, 40 runs 

He was the prized prospect in the Cliff Lee trade, but struggled to find his way in the majors in 2010.  He struck out way too much and at times looked completely overmatched at the plate.  He has a ton of talent though, and was a prolific hitter in his minor league career. 

He has been compared to Mark Teixeira, and while he certainly won’t get there in 2011, he should clearly improve on what he did in 100 games at the major-league level last season. If you are in a keeper league he is worth stashing on your bench, but if you are in a seasonal league, Smoak is really not worth a draft pick this March. 

29. Chris Carter, Oakland Athletics
.186 average, 3 homers, 7 RBI, 1 SB, 8 runs (24 games)

One of the next big guys in the line of young power hitters, Carter just needs the chance to play regularly to have an impact in fantasy baseball. 

He has absolutely nothing left to prove in the minors, but he does have to work on keeping the strikeouts down. He does walk a decent amount for a big power hitter, so he does have that going for him. He is just a big ol’ boy who is good at putting baseballs in the people. 

The only problem for 2011 is that he might not have a place to play.

The A’s signed Hideki Matsui presumably to DH, and for some unknown reason they seem to like Daric Barton at first. So, unless Carter gets a chance, you can see the Athletics hit 12 home runs on the season as a team again while they waste this kid’s talent for mashing in the minors again. If he gets the regular time he should vault six to eight places up these rankings. 

30. Brad Hawpe, San Diego Padres
.245 average, 9 homers, 44 RBI, 2 SBs, 31 runs

He split time between Colorado and Tampa Bay last season, but failed to make an impact in either place. Hawpe seemed to follow former teammate Garrett Atkins rapid descent from fantasy relevance to total tire fire. 

Not exactly sure what happened to a guy who was a perennial 25/90 contributor, and how he got to the disaster that he currently is. 

Hawpe gets a new start back in the NL West, but now he is on a team with a horrible lineup and plays in a huge home ballpark. I don’t expect a resurgence to his former statistics for Hawpe, but he should be better than he was in 2010. If you are expecting more than .260 with 17 homers and 75 RBI, you are likely to be disappointed. 

31. Todd Helton, Colorado Rockies
.256 average, 8 homers, 37 RBI, 48 runs

Helton is now 37 years old and when he is healthy he still hits for a decent average, but the power numbers are gone for good, so if you are hoping for that you are going to be sorely let down. 

Helton seems to be a total product of the performance enh…I mean late-90s power surge. At this point, if he is doing as poorly again in 2011, I think that the Rockies would consider replacing him with Ty Wigginton. Helton should be nothing more than a last resort as an injury replacement, but I would much rather take a chance on a young kid with upside than an old fart at the end of his career.

32. Lyle Overbay, Pittsburgh Pirates
.243 average, 20 homers, 67 RBI, 1 SB, 75 runs

I know he reached the 20 homer plateau, but Overbay is as useful as a one-legged man in an ass-kicking contest. 

From 2004-2006 Overbay actually was kind of decent, but in the last four years he has just gotten progressively worse and even though he had the second most home runs of his career, his batting average dropped for the third straight season to the worst level of his career. 

He will be able to swing for the fences in Pittsburgh, but I would rather take Ricky Bobby for my roster over Lyle Overbay. Because if you’re not first, you're last!

33. Daric Barton, Oakland Athletics
.273 average, 10 homers, 53 RBI, 7 SBs, 73 runs

At one time Barton was a hotshot young prospect with all the promise in the world and a big bat. Something happened on the way to the majors (besides a major elbow injury) as he is now nothing more than an average hitter with not a lot of pop.  

He is a good source of on-base-percentage for leagues that reward that, but overall he doesn’t do enough to warrant a starting spot on your team for a first baseman. He can get you through a couple of weeks if you have an injury, maybe even a month if you have a lot of other power on your team, but if you have Barton in your everyday lineup your are in trouble. 

34. Ty Wigginton, Colorado Rockies
.248 average, 22 homers, 76 RBI, 63 runs

He had a great season by Wigginton standards, even with a subpar batting average.  He's had 20 home runs in four of the last five seasons, but he is coming down to the far side of his career, and is not going to have a starting position to start the season. 

However, Todd Helton is REALLY at the end of his career and is very injury prone at this point, so Wigginton could carry some fantasy value later on in the season. He is a great guy to keep on your watch list in case he starts getting regular at-bats at some point, but unless you are in a 20-plus team league you can avoid him on draft day. 

35. Mitch Moreland, Texas Rangers
.255 average, 9 homers, 25 RBI, 3 SBs, 20 runs (47 games)

Moreland had a hell of a run in the playoffs, but overall he won’t have a ton of value once the regular season starts. 

He was a pretty good hitter in the minors, but didn’t do any one thing well enough to warrant huge consideration. He could split time at first or DH with Michael Young, or he could spend a lot of time on the bench. I wouldn’t consider drafting Moreland to start the season, but perhaps if he is getting regular playing time he could be worth a bench spot on your roster.

Others to consider:  Nick Johnson, New York Yankees; Jake Fox, Baltimore Orioles; Chris Davis, Texas Rangers; Yonder Alonso, Cincinnati Reds; Mike Carp, Seattle Mariners.

Others likely with 1B eligibility: Victor Martinez, Detroit Tigers, Garrett Jones, Pittsburgh Pirates; Pablo Sandoval, San Francisco Giants; Martin Prado, Atlanta Braves; Luke Scott, Baltimore Orioles; Kevin Youkilis, Boston Red Sox; David Ortiz, Boston Red Sox; Travis Hafner, Cleveland Indians; Jose Lopez, Colorado Rockies; Howie Kendrick, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim; Michael Cuddyer, Minnesota Twins; Nick Swisher, New York Yankees; Chase Headley, San Diego Padres; Buster Posey, San Francisco Giants; Lance Berkman, St. Louis Cardinals;