Champs Can Trip Up At Dover

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In the Chase For The Cup, winning isn’t everything. Oh sure, Jimmie Johnson tried to prove me wrong last year. But, substitute his runs with second, third, or fourth place finishes, and he still wins the title.

No, in the Chase, consistency is king. Everyone is entitled to slip up, but make sure it happens early. As Johnson said after Loudon, you don’t really know how it’ll shake out until Kansas.

Dover has seen Chasers win each race since 2004. Yet, the eventual champion has, with the exception of Kurt Busch, has had a rather pedestrian finish.

That trend could always change, but thus far it has held up; it's something to keep in mind with just 9 races remaining in the year. I hope you saved your fantasy starts for the top drivers at the end. The numbers prove me right:

The winners:
2007—Carl Edwards
2006—Jeff Burton
2005—Jimmie Johnson
2004—Ryan Newman

Champs finish:
2007—Jimmie Johnson 14th
2006—Jimmie Johnson 13th
2005—Tony Stewart 18th
2004—Kurt Busch fifth

There are four drivers I like either to win or secure a top finish at Dover based on how well they run and their previous records at the track. Those drivers are Jeff Burton, Carl Edwards, Greg Biffle, and Kyle Busch.

Each driver has won at Dover before, with Burton and Edwards winning the ’06 and ’07 races. Biffle and Busch have won spring Dover races and each have second place Chase finishes here.

One driver I say to stay away from, though, is Jimmie Johnson. Sure, Johnson won here in ’05. But, look at his previous finishes. I don’t like the way he has run here recently, and the recent performance is what I’m looking at. You’d be better served saving him for Kansas, Charlotte, or Martinsville.

I have a few sleepers to keep an eye on as well.

The first is Mark Martin. He does nothing but run up front at Dover. Last season running only a partial schedule, he finished fourth. The year, the team and car have run well on the smaller tracks.Don't be surprised if he continues that trend.

The second sleeper is Jamie McMurray. Even though his team was raided pre-Chase, I expect him to run well on Sunday. He always seems to run well at Dover, and nearly won the spring race in '06.

For those brave souls that don’t mind taking a risk, I’d almost say Juan Pablo Montoya. Just call it a hunch. He didn’t run bad last year and was racier than he has been most of the year at Loudon. Maybe he has a little momentum on his side.

Finally, the song for Dover is “Push” by Matchbox Twenty. Like the song says, “It’s not over, no not here.” That, and it’s hard to find a song about Delaware.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media