2011 NFL Mock Draft: Why Mel Kiper's 1st Mock Is Completely Off

ESPN’s Mel Kiper has specialized in covering the NFL Draft since time immemorial, but that doesn’t mean he’s always right. 

His first mock draft of this season is loaded with players picked too high or too low, players picked by teams who don’t need them, and players he doesn’t even mention but should. 

Read on for a field guide to some of the curiosities in Kiper’s first effort of the year.

Overrated/Underrated

Overrated: Blaine Gabbert, QB (Missouri)

Call me a skeptic, but after barely hearing Gabbert’s name mentioned on the national scene during the season, I’m not convinced that he instantly jumps to the top of the QB board based on…what? 

A weak showing by Ryan Mallett in the Sugar Bowl?  Decent numbers in a pass-happy spread offense?

Yes, NFL scouts love a 6’5” QB with a respectable arm, but Gabbert’s performance during the year hardly seems to make him the consensus number one signal caller in the draft.

Underrated: Gabe Carimi, OT (Wisconsin)

Kiper seems generally to have undervalued the offensive linemen this year, with nary a blocker selected until pick No.12 in his projections. 

Carimi in particular seems to get a raw deal.  He practiced every week against first-round DE J.J. Watt, while also facing potential first-rounders like Ryan Kerrigan (Purdue) and Cameron Heyward (Ohio State). 

With all that experience (and an Outland Trophy to show for it), Carimi deserves better than a projected #23 overall selection.

Right Man For The Wrong Job

Miami Dolphins picking Mark Ingram (RB, Alabama)

There’s little question that Ingram, the former Heisman Trophy winner, is the top running back in this year’s draft class, and pick #15 is not an unreasonable place for him to go. 

But why would the Dolphins spend their top pick on a running back? 

Even acknowledging that they need to replace Ricky Williams (Kiper’s justification for this pick), good running backs can be had in later rounds in any draft, especially when you know you have a solid starter like Ronnie Brown to handle the bulk of the carries. 

Considering Chad Henne’s struggles last season, both to stay healthy and to perform when he was, the Dolphins seem like a great candidate to take a gamble on one of the available quarterbacks rather than to take Ingram just because he’s a good value at this spot.

Detroit Lions picking Akeem Ayers (LB, UCLA)

Kiper doesn’t seem to think Detroit really wants Ayers, but that they’ll settle for him because he’s the best available defensive playmaker. 

That might be a valid strategy for some teams (and don’t get me wrong, the Lions can use the defensive help.)

But right now, Detroit has one problem that’s bigger than all the others: keeping Matthew Stafford on the field. 

The Lions have started to put together some nice pieces at the offensive skill positions, but they don’t have the blockers to make the offense flow. 

Any of the offensive linemen Kiper suggests for teams drafting below the Lions would be a better fit for a team with a glaring need at the position.

Among The Missing

Jake Locker, QB (Washington)

Considering that Kiper’s fellow draft expert Todd McShay sees Locker as a Top 10 pick, it’s kind of hard to swallow that the Washington QB barely rates a mention in Kiper’s selections. 

There are lots of teams out there who need quarterbacks, and every year teams draft QBs ahead of where they probably deserve, just because there are so few good ones. 

Besides, Locker’s arm strength and mobility had him being talked about as a potential first-QB-taken before his shaky senior season; in a fight with no consensus favorite, he ought to be up there with Mallett and Gabbert on Kiper’s listings.

Marvin Austin (DT, North Carolina)

Yes, Austin was set back by the contact-with-agent scandal that cost him his senior season at UNC.  People see him as a character risk, and he hasn’t played in a year. 

But, before all the suspension talk started, he was considered the top DT in the country. 

He doesn’t deserve to be picked over Nick Fairley or Marcell Dareus, but even in a D-line-rich draft, he has too much talent and too much potential to fall out of the first round.