Fantasy Baseball: Draft This, Not That - Part 4

When you look at the ADP at third base in early returns, it is hard to argue with many of the choices in the top-10. When you look at the likes of Evan Longoria, Alex Rodriguez, David Wright, Ryan Zimmerman and even Adrian Beltre in the top-five, it makes logical sense.

It is even harder to find players deeper that can duplicate those stats at the position. As you move towards the fringe starters at the 10-12 spots in current ADPs, that is where you can find some leverage.

Here is today’s look at two players with relatively decent compares.

Player A     13 HR, 61 runs, 63 RBIs, .268 AVG, 3 SB, 563 ABs, 152 games, 159 ADP

Player B     11 HR, 40 runs, 52 RBIs, .309 AVG, 3 SB, 341 ABs, 94 games, 348 ADP

For fun, let’s gross up Player B’s numbers over the same 563 at-bats. That would mean:

Player B     18 HR, 66 runs, 85 RBIs, .309 AVG, 5 SB, 563 ABs, 348 ADP

All of a sudden, the compare is pretty compelling. That is especially true when you factor in that you are looking at a 15-round difference (potentially) in selection time. Again, and I keep coming back to this, it is not to say that Player B is a better overall player in this comparison.

The point is that an owner can garner similar value at a much later portion in the draft. This also assumes that Player A sees no growth in their numbers as well. Not always an easy thing to assume. Age is also a factor. Here, Player A is 24 years old while Player B is 26.

Who are the masked men? Player A is Pablo Sandoval. Sandoval had a bad year. Many expected big things from him coming off of a solid 2009 and they simply did not materialize. He was out of shape to say the least and others stole any remaining thunder that he had.

There are rumors that he is heading into the spring in much better shape this year and ready to prove that 2010 was a fluke. If he were to bounce back to the 25 home run/90 RBI player that hit .330 two years ago, that would make him a bargain at pick No. 159. That is a gamble that owners will be taking whenever they choose to select him.

Player B here is Chris Johnson of the Astros. Unlike his running back namesake, this Johnson is far from the top of the draft board and is in many cases going without being selected at all. He has the chance to be a gem for those that take the late-round flyer on the third basemen.

Johnson showed that he can hit and he was one of the few bright spots in the Houston lineup. With that likely the case again this year, Johnson has the chance to be the only redeeming fantasy option in the city.

Many are already hailing Johnson as a solid sleeper selection and that is with good reason. The full-season uplifts that we show here are compelling and could very well be seen in 2011.

Johnson has a shot at being a 20-home run threat that could hit better than .300 while driving in 80 runs. Those figures make him closer to a top-10 threat than many might think.

In reality, the safer selection is still Sandoval. He has greater upside for only moderate risk. Still, based on ADP, 12-team leagues would still be taking him as a starter. The comfort an owner has in him over-achieving his 2010 marks will make for how they feel putting him into their lineup.

Johnson may not have the same cache, but expect that he turns some heads. Look for him in the later rounds of your draft and reap the rewards.