Call Me Crazy, But...

Okay, I'm just gonna put this out there right now: The Carolina Panthers could win the Super Bowl.

This notion must seem crazy to you.  But it's not as crazy as it seems.

The AFC powers that could threaten a Panthers Super Bowl run all have a weakness that could keep them from getting to or winning the Super Bowl.

Before the NFL season kicked off, I just didn't see the Patriots in the Super Bowl again.  I just didn't feel it.  So far my instincts about this season have proven true.

The reason became apparent when their star quarterback and team catalyst Tom Brady went down with a horrible knee injury. 

The Patriots still have enough weapons to win 11 or 12 games (their schedule is decently easy).

But Brady’s replacement, Matt Cassel, cannot put up numbers anywhere close to Brady's.  The Patriots won't have the top-notch quarterback play necessary to win in the playoffs.  So they can't get to—much less win—the Super Bowl.

Both AFC South juggernauts, the Colts and Jaguars, have ceded first place to the Titans (2-0). 

The Colts got spanked by the Bears in the first week of the season 29-13. 

Then they barely beat the Vikings, whose passing game as a whole is in the gutter, on a late field goal.

The Jaguars are currently 0-2 after falling to the Titans in Week 1 and the Bills this past weekend.

Jacksonville is already losing too many close games—they lost by a touchdown in their first game and by four points in Week 2.

The last major AFC team standing in the way of a Panthers Super Bowl is the San Diego Chargers.

But San Diego doesn't seem to be much of an obstacle for the Panthers anymore.  Carolina beat the Chargers 26-24 in Week 1 and, despite how close the result is, outplayed them for most of the game.

In addition, San Diego lost to the Denver Broncos in their second game of the season. 

Granted, there is certainly room for debate about the fact that referee Ed Hochuli ruined the Chargers' chances to win with an utterly blown call that set up the Broncos' game-winning drive deep in San Diego territory.

But they still lost.  The Broncos played a great game, and they won.  From what I understand their offense is really dynamic. 

That virtually eliminates every major AFC potential playoff team from Super Bowl contention for the moment.  Every team believed to be a playoff contender in the AFC is starting off really slow (except the Patriots, but they haven’t played a good team yet and they simply have too many weapons not to do well with their easy schedule).

The Panthers’ five biggest potential NFC threats to their Super Bowl chances are the Cowboys, Giants, Eagles, Bears, and Packers. 

The Cowboys probably won’t threaten Carolina, though.  They can win their division with an undefeated record and earn home-field advantage throughout the playoffs as well as a week one bye, but if they can’t win that divisional playoff game, nothing matters. 

Quarterback Tony Romo and head coach Wade Philips have not been able to win a playoff game in their tenures, and the Cowboys as a team haven’t won a playoff game in 12 years.   Who is to say this trend will change this year?

I don’t expect the Giants to defend their title as Super Bowl champion this year.  They mostly won the title last year with their defense, and they lost several of the key starters from the 2007 unit. 

Granted, Eli Manning has emerged as a top quarterback, but you can’t win in the playoffs without defense, which they don’t have as much of this season.

True, New York is 2-0, but they’ve played a slow-starting Washington Redskins and the hopeless St. Louis Rams in their first two games of the season.  The Giants can’t be considered a real contender for this year’s playoffs until they beat a better team. 

The Eagles demolished the Rams in their first game of the season 38-3.  But that was against the Rams, the laughing stock of the league.

Two nights ago the Eagles lost a 41-37 slugfest to the Cowboys on Monday Night Football.

The Eagles obviously have a great offense.  They look like they can put 30 points up on most opponents. 

But their defense, as was exposed last night, is pedestrian.  They allowed 40+ points to the Cowboys.  Even when you’re playing a great offensive team like the Cowboys that’s more real estate than you should give up. 

If Philly’s Monday Night performance was any indication, their Super Bowl chances are slim because of their awful defense.  You have to have a good defense to win in the playoffs.  You can’t just rely on your offense to win it all.

Case in point: last year’s Patriots.

The Bears trounced the Colts in both team’s first game of the season 29-13. 

But last weekend they lost 20-17 to the Panthers.

It’s obvious that the Bears have a subjugating defense. 

They held the Colts’ normally potent offense to 13 points and fewer than 300 total offensive yards.  Peyton Manning had 257 of those yards, too.  Chicago completely shut Indy’s running game down.    

In Week 2 they held the Panthers, a less dynamic offensive team than the Colts though by no means offensively challenged, to 216 offensive yards, yet they still lost.

The reason the Bears lost to Carolina is because their offense is too one-dimensional.

Running back Matt Forte was the Bears’ entire offense, rushing for 92 yards on 23 carries and receiving for 21 yards on three catches. 

Quarterback Kyle Orton’s performance was decent, but he couldn’t complete many passes longer than five or ten yards. 

Chicago’s running game on both sides of the ball is obviously its great strength.

But its passing game both ways is sub-par.  Orton doesn’t have any receivers to throw to – his main role is to make sure the pass offense is enough to balance out the running game, keeping the run defense honest. 

The pass defense has been the real Achilles Heel of the Bears insofar this season, giving up a total of 385 pass yards in their first two games. 

But, unfortunately for the Bears, the Panthers exposed a clear weakness in Chicago’s rush D—a power running attack. 

In Week 1 against Indianapolis the Bears had to deal with an elusive running back in Joseph Addai.  They shut him down. 

Then they were tasked with stopping Panthers elusive halfback DeAngelo Williams in the first half of their game against Carolina.  They did it easily.

But in the second half power back Jonathan Stewart came in and rushed for 76 yards and two touchdowns on 13 carries.  Stewart essentially brought Chicago’s defense down with some help from the offensive line. 

He also broke numerous tackles in the open field and made some nice moves to fake out Chicago defenders.

The bottom line: the Bears’ early success could change in a hurry as opponents start to test their run defense with powerful backs.

The Packers have started the season on a high note, taking wins from their first two games against the Vikings and Lions.

While the win over the Vikings may seem impressive, it really wasn’t.

The only thing the Vikings did well in that game was running the ball with beast RB Adrian Peterson.  Peterson ran for 103 yards and a touchdown on 19 carries. 

Green Bay’s blowout over the Lions was expected. 

The Lions’ offense is only average—even with solid receivers Calvin Johnson and Roy Williams—and their defense gave up 34 points to the Atlanta Falcons. 

Not to mention it let Michael Turner rush for 220 yards and two touchdowns.

Green Bay is 2-0 insofar, but that really only says they can easily beat bad teams.  We’ll have a better idea of how good the Aaron Rodgers-led Packers are when they play a better team.

The Carolina Panthers have an easy schedule this year.

 They play the Falcons—a below-average team despite what their Week 1 thumping of Detroit had fans believing about them—twice, Kansas City, Arizona, Oakland, and Denver.  All are games they should win.

The rest of the games on their schedule, including visits to the Meadowlands and Lambeau Field, are winnable.

The Panthers should win eight more games.  That would put them at 10-6, enough for a wild card spot. 

But they have a great shot to win any given game on their schedule for the remainder of the year. 

I see them finishing 12-4, maybe even 13-3. 

Once they make the playoffs, I can see the Panthers making it to the Super Bowl, very possibly even winning.

The Panthers have a dynamic offense, highlighted by receiver Steve Smith, quarterback Jake Delhomme, and running backs DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart.  This offense can score a lot of points on weaker defensive teams and enough to win against tougher teams. 

Their ability to score just enough points for the win would benefit them greatly in the playoffs.

But Carolina also has an imposing defense. 

They shut LT down about as much as it’s possible to contain him. 

Then they held Matt Forte, who ran for 123 yards and a touchdown against the Colts in Week 1, to 92 yards on 23 carries.

The pass defense, after a disappointing Week 1 performance against the Chargers, looked much better last week against the Bears.

Cornerback Chris Gamble nearly picked two passes off, and safety Chris Harris forced his second and third fumbles of the season.

Historically, once head coach John Fox gets his team to the playoffs, he gets the job done.  His teams usually go deep into the playoffs. 

The Panthers’ four straight playoff road wins under Fox tied the mark by the Dallas Cowboys under Tom Landry. 

Fox’s four playoff road triumphs trail only Landry (seven) and former Redskins coach Joe Gibbs (five).

The Panthers under Fox also own a 5-2 record in the playoffs.

Basically, as dangerous as the Panthers appear to be this season, they will be even more of a threat in the playoffs with Fox at the helm.

Call me crazy, but if things continue to shape up like they are right now, the Panthers could be celebrating their first Super Bowl title this February.