Tiger Woods: The Reason Why He Will Win at Least One Major in 2011

The first sign of trouble came at the 2009 PGA.  Tiger Woods had never lost a major when leading after three rounds. Two shot lead on Y.E. Yang at Hazeltine. Major No. 15 was a given, right?

Then Tiger made more bogeys in the final round than he had in the first three combined.  Lost by two. His surly demeanor revealed more than his mediocre golf game.  He was visibly agitated. Flustered. Angry. Something wasn’t right. 

A few months later he crashed his Escalade. And his house of cards.

No one (including Tiger) expected Tiger to win a major in 2010. Too much personal turmoil. Too little time spent practicing. Too few tournaments to get major tested. Yet another swing change. 

Tiger being Tiger, he contended at Augusta and the U.S. Open. But you could sense he wasn’t close to being the same golfer who won No. 14 at Torrey Pines. The nagging question: Could he rebound in 2011?

Fast forward to the eve of his 2011 debut and the song remains the same. Are Tiger’s swing changes solidified? Is his knee fully repaired? Can he reclaim his magic putting touch? Can he reassert his psychological dominance over his peers?  Most importantly, can he move a step closer to Nicklaus by winning a major this year?

The answer: Yes to all of the above.

The reason: He’s single again.

Tiger Woods dominated golf for obvious reasons: perfect upbringing, superhuman talent, killer instinct, and so on. He also dominated because he focused solely on himself. Sure, he got married in the literal definition of the word. 

But that didn’t mean he wasn’t out beating balls till nine at night and rendezvousing with his lady friends around the globe. Tiger did what he wanted before he was married. And he did what he wanted when he was married. 

The result: He won. A lot.

Then he had to shed his narcissistic stripes.

After being outed, his mistresses surfacing like groundhogs, Tiger had to deposit himself in the bunker. He had to focus on his wife. He had to focus on his kids. He had to answer to the media. He had to go to rehab. He had to try to save his marriage. No more marathon practice sessions. No more all-nighters in Vegas. No more hookers.    

Result: No more winning.

But as we pine for his return to Torrey Pines, we find a Tiger who’s back in his bubble.  Forget the swing changes and the putting concerns and the bum knee. Tiger being single again trumps all that. He’s got his $55 million bachelor pad complete with practice holes.  He’s got all the time in the world to focus on his two favorite things: Himself and his golf.  That's the definition of balance in Tiger's Buddhist world. All is right in his universe.

I expect his demeanor to be different this week. Less angst. Less club throwing. Less swearing. More fairways. More greens. More birdies. 

The result: Probably a W.

Even if he doesn't win at Torrey Pines, he's going to win soon. Then the talk will finally stop. The knots that have tied his tail will loosen. No more heckling. No more questions about his kids. No more painfully awkward press conferences. The spotlight will shine on Tiger the Golfer instead of Tiger the Failed Family Man.

What the golf world will be left with is the dominant golfer of a generation who has come full circle. A prodigy who lived up to the hype, exceeded everyone’s expectations, entered into a seemingly dream marriage, kept on winning, crashed harder than Bear Sterns and then slowly rose from the rubble.

What, then, will be the final chapter? I expect Tiger's story will have a happy ending.  Besides himself, Tiger loves nothing more than proving everyone wrong. That goes for the media and his peers who have written him off. He’s like Bobby Fisher, who disappeared off the face off the chess earth before returning from obscurity to claim another world championship. He silenced the haters. Tiger will do the same.

To be champion of the golf world, Tiger has to catch Jack. That’s his singular focus. It starts in 2011 with a major championship victory. If the over-under for Tiger and majors this year is one, I’d take the over every day of the week starting on Masters Sunday.

And if Tom Ford is looking for a star for A Single Man Part II, Tiger is his man.