2011 College Football Rankings: Predicting the First Loss for Every Top 25 Team
2010 was an extremely exciting season. However, with Auburn crowned champion, it is time to look forward to an even more intense 2011.
Mark Schlabach of ESPN.com recently released his pre-season top 25 for this upcoming season. It looks to be fairly reasonable.
The way college football works though, isn't like other sports. Each loss counts. One loss basically knocks you out of the title hunt, and two losses is an almost guaranteed out.
What games will these teams struggle in? Where will the first losses occur? I will predict the most likely first loss (unless the teams schedule has not been released, then I will just predict the most likely loss in general) and the three toughest games beyond that. Let's take a look.
25. West Virginia Mountaineers
1 of 25
Most Likely First Loss: LSU on 9/21/11
Three most difficult games: Maryland, Connecticut, and Pittsburgh.
West Virginia is poised to have a nice year in 2011, and their schedule sets up favorably. However, this is an easy first loss to pick.
Their first loss will most likely come 9/24/11 against an LSU team who will be a favorite for a national championship this year.
However, an 11-1 or 10-2 season is not out of the question.
24. Mississippi State Bulldogs
2 of 25
Most Likely First Loss: LSU on 9/15/11
Three Most difficult games: South Carolina, Alabama, and Arkansas.
The surprise team of 2010, the Mississippi State Bulldogs will not sneak up on anyone this season. Their schedule is not easy, but then again, no SEC team has an easy schedule. Auburn and Georgia will also give the team problems.
An 8 or 9 win season would be phenomenal for these Dogs.
23. Florida Gators
3 of 25
Most Likely First Loss: Alabama on 10/01/11
Three Most difficult games: LSU, South Carolina, Florida State
Florida will definitely be back as a powerhouse soon. However, it will take a year or so to completely revamp the entire team. The pro-style offense really fits John Brantley well though, and that could bode well for this team.
The SEC East is still down, and they can compete. The games against South Carolina and Georgia will probably be the two biggest games of the year for this team. I just don't see them getting past Alabama on October 1st.
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22. Texas Longhorns
4 of 25
Most Likely First Loss: Oklahoma on 10/08/11
Three Most difficult games: Oklahoma State, Missouri, and Texas A&M.
The Big 12 is probably the most competitive division top to bottom this side of the SEC. It definitely can make the argument for best conference.
Oklahoma looks to be the cream of the crop, but you never know what will happen in a Texas/Oklahoma game. Oklahoma State will be loaded as well, and they play them right after Oklahoma. If they happen to upset the Sooners, I would look for a letdown against Oklahoma State.
Texas will be much better this year.
21. Arizona State Sun Devils
5 of 25
Most Likely First Loss: Missouri on 9/10/11
Three Most difficult games: USC, Oregon, and Utah.
I am a really big fan of what the Arizona State Sun Devils have done recently. They have quietly built a competitive program.
I was torn on calling the Missouri game a loss. My next guess at first loss would be Oregon on 10/15, but I think Missouri's balanced attack will be a bit too much for these guys to overcome. They have the potential to compete in the PAC-12.
20. Virginia Tech Hokies
6 of 25
Most Likely Loss: Clemson (date unannounced)
Three Most difficult games: Miami, North Carolina, Georgia Tech
The ACC is a bit of a mess right now. Virginia Tech may not be as good as they were this year, as they are losing quite a few key players, including stud quarterback Tyrod Taylor.
Clemson will be champing at the big to beat Virginia Tech. All of their most difficult games are at home, except for Georgia Tech, who I believe to be the least difficult of the remaining teams.
The schedule really does set up favorably for this team to repeat as Atlantic division representative in the ACC championship game.
19. Nebraska Cornhuskers
7 of 25
Most Likely First Loss: Michigan State on 10/29/11
Three Most difficult games: Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Iowa.
Welcome to the Big Ten. Nebraska is a team I think will do two things.
1. They will finish as a top ten team.
2. They will expose the Big Ten as an average conference.
I had the notion to say that they would lose to Wisconsin, but I think Nebraska will be fired up for the first "big" conference game. Ohio State will be weakened due to suspensions. Even though the suspensions end for this game, the players will have less time to prepare.
Michigan State will be very good next year. However, I view Nebraska as a dark horse title contender.
18. TCU Horned Frogs
8 of 25
Most Likely Loss: Boise State (date unannounced)
Three Most difficult games: Air Force, SMU, Baylor
TCU will not be as good as they were last year. However, their schedule sets them up for another fantastic season. Really, the competition is pretty slim.
I understand that this is not necessarily the schools fault... but you have to call it like you see it. Get by Boise and Air Force, and an undefeated season is likely.
17. Auburn Tigers
9 of 25
Most Likely First Loss: South Carolina, 10/01/11
Three Most difficult games: Arkansas, LSU, and Alabama.
Auburn will not be nearly the powerhouse team they were last year. They lose two of the best players in the country. However, they will not be nearly as bad as people are thinking.
Coach Gene Chizik is an excellent coach, and they are on pace for another fantastic recruiting class. I believe that the game against South Carolina will be tough, but South Carolina will be returning a veteran team with another great recruiting class on top.
Plus, South Carolina plays it's best early, and it is in Columbia. Plus, revenge will be on the mind for the embarrassment of the SEC Championship game.
16. Missouri Tigers
10 of 25
Most Likely First Loss: Oklahoma (either 9/17/11 or 10/01/11).
Three Most difficult games: Arizona State, Oklahoma State, and Texas.
Missouri is an under rated program. They play extremely physical football, and are always a difficult out. Finishing 10-2 last year, this team is very poised. Losing Blaine Gabbert will hurt.
However, they always find a way to reload, and have some good players on the team.
15. Michigan State Spartans
11 of 25
Most Likely First Loss: Wisconsin on 10/22/11
Three Most difficult games: Iowa, Nebraska, Notre Dame
This is a team I believe could go undefeated in 2011 and contend for a national title. Their schedule is difficult, but they really do have a solid team from top to bottom. They have their top scorer and their quarterback returning, and the defense may even be better next year.
However, Wisconsin stands the best chance of knocking out a loaded Michigan State team. The Badgers play power football, and have a talented team in all areas.
I did not include Ohio State in the three most difficult games, because that game falls under the Ohio State suspensions window.
14. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
12 of 25
Most Likely First Loss: Michigan State on 09/17/11
Three Most difficult games: USC, Stanford, Michigan
Notre Dame has been on many national pundits short list of potential title contenders. I don't see them being there yet, and they do have a tough schedule. If they make it through unscathed, they definitely deserve a birth in the national title.
Really, the first four games will tell a great deal about the season. They could lose against USF, Michigan, Michigan State, or Pittsburgh. However, I see the most likely first loss being Michigan State. The Spartans are just too talented, and the Irish just have not proved much yet.
13. Texas A&M Aggies
13 of 25
Most Likely First Loss: Arkansas on 10/01/11
Three Most difficult games: Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas
I feel as though Texas A&M may be a team that disappoints many this season. Losing quarterback Jerod Johnson will be felt more than people believe. The team should have a solid running game, however.
Texas A&M may struggle to beat an Arkansas team that proved down the stretch of 2010 that it can win with defense and running as well as passing. Texas A&M could lose 4 or 5 games.
12. Wisconsin Badgers
14 of 25
Most Likely First Loss: Nebraska on 10/01/11
Three Most difficult games: Michigan State, Ohio State, and Penn State.
Wisconsin is another good team who plays power football. They are losing their starting quarterback in Scott Tolzien, but that won't matter much given how much they like to run. They are bringing back two of the best running backs in the country in Montee Ball and James White.
Nebraska will most likely be their first loss. They basically mirror each other, however, I see Nebraska being motivated to immediately establish dominance in the Big Ten.
11. South Carolina Gamecocks
15 of 25
Most Likely First Loss: Arkansas, 11/05/11
Three Most difficult games: Georgia, Mississippi State, Florida.
The Gamecocks have tended to come in two very distinct flavors... good, and really bad. With what will almost undoubtedly be the highest pre-season ranking in South Carolina history (one analyst has South Carolina all the way up to 7), expectations are high.
This season seems like the year the expectations get met. Any one of the games mentioned above could be a loss. However, South Carolina has too much talent returning not to be serious SEC contenders. I see Arkansas being the first loss of the year for this team, with scares against Georgia and Auburn.
10. Ohio State Buckeyes
16 of 25
Most Likely First Loss: Miami (FL) on 09/17/11
Three Most difficult games: Michigan State, Nebraska, Wisconsin
Ohio State has a rough road ahead. The loss of Terrelle Pryor will be felt for the first five games. None more than the Miami game. Joe Bauserman and Kenny Guiton are both solid quarterbacks, but the team will miss the leadership of Pryor early in the season.
However, Jim Tressel is an amazing coach, and he has been known to do some amazing things.
9. Stanford Cardinal
17 of 25
Most Likely First Loss: Oregon on 11/12/11
Three Most difficult games: USC, Notre Dame, UCLA
Was the magical season of 2010 more the work of the coach or the great quarterback? That question will be answered this year... and honestly, I think it is all about Andrew Luck.
The schedule for the Cardinal is much easier than last years. A national title could be on the line when Oregon comes to down.
I wouldn't bet money on that game, as this is another team I think could go undefeated in 2011.
8. Arkansas Razorbacks
18 of 25
Most Likely First Loss: Alabama on 09/24/11
Three Most difficult games: Texas A&M, South Carolina, LSU
I believe Arkansas may shock a great many people next year... Ryan Mallet is gone, but now Arkansas may not try and rely on him as much, making them a more well rounded team.
They will lose a game or two, but they will be supremely competitive.
7. Florida State Seminoles
19 of 25
Most Likely First Loss: Oklahoma on 09/17/11
Three Most difficult games: Clemson, Miami, Florida
Florida State did a great job last year in the weak ACC, and I see no reason why they won't do it again. They finished the season well, beating a good South Carolina team in the Chick-Fil-et bowl.
This year, Florida State will be favored to win the whole ACC. If they can get by Oklahoma on the 17th, which I doubt they will do, they could have a serious shot at a national title. Clemson, Miami, and Florida are all beatable.
Look out for FSU in 2011.
6. Oklahoma State Cowboys
20 of 25
Most Likely First Loss: Oklahoma om 11/26/11
Three Most difficult games: Missouri, Texas, Texas A&M
Oklahoma State has the potential to be one of the most explosive offenses in the entire college football world... they have some big time names returning, and should definitely contend for the Big 12 title. In all reality, Oklahoma against Oklahoma State could be for the whole thing... which would make for some classic television.
5. Boise State Broncos
21 of 25
Most Likely First Loss: Georgia on 09/03/11
Three Most difficult games: Nevada, TCU, Air Force
Boise will be as good as usual. They bring back a high powered and creative offense, and a solid defense. However, the BCS talk will end early, as I see a much improved Georgia team beating them to open up Boise States season.
However, if they can get through Georgia, look for the match up against TCU (date unannounced) to have national title implications for the Broncos.
4. LSU Tigers
22 of 25
Most Likely First Loss: Oregon, 09/03/11
Three Most difficult games: Arkansas, Auburn, Alabama
Poor LSU. They have a pretty talented team, and will have an opportunity to start the season ranked highly. Then, the gauntlet that is their schedule rears it's ugly head game one.
Oregon will be hungry to prove that 2010 was no fluke. Beyond the games that I have listed above, LSU faced West Virginia, Florida, and Mississippi State.
This is a team I can't see going undefeated, but they will be impressive none the less. Les Miles has found ways to motivate his teams, and I can't see the 2011 season being any different.
3. Oregon Ducks
23 of 25
Most Likely First Loss: Stanford on 11/12/11
Three Most difficult games: LSU, Arizona State, USC
This is one of two times I will do this for a team. I truly feel like Oregon has a pretty solid chance to roll until their match up against Stanford.
You will notice I said Stanford's most likely first loss is to none other than Oregon. The season may come down to that game, and I expect it to be classic.
2. Alabama Crimson Tide
24 of 25
Most Likely First Loss: LSU on 11/05/11
Three Most difficult games: Arkansas, Mississippi State, Auburn
Alabama is the most likely to represent the SEC in the national championship. Their schedule is not as brutal as usual, and they get LSU and Arkansas at home. Mississippi State and Auburn will be tough, but if any team has the potential to go undefeated in the SEC in 2011, it is Alabama.
Then, they may get a chance at revenge against South Carolina in the SEC title game.
1. Oklahoma Sooners
25 of 25
Most Likely First Loss: Oklahoma State on 11/26/11
Three Most difficult games: Florida State, Texas, Texas A&M.
Once again, this is a team that could be playing for it all. I think an undefeated Oklahoma will take on an undefeated Oklahoma State for a national title chance.
I believe that they will win all of their games. This is one of the more loaded college football teams in recent memory, with a legendary coach and a chip on their shoulder.
The national title game will be Oklahoma versus Oregon/Alabama.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
