NBA 2008-09 Predictions: Northwest Division

One team rising, one team sinking, one top team staying the same.

Utah 53-29 (LY= 54-28)

Jerry Sloan’s team has done little to change. Second in assists differential (+6.5), second in field-goal percentage (49%), third in rebound differential (3.1), and fourth in points differential (+6.9) adds up to a solid team that works the ball for the high percentage shot.

They rock ‘n roll with the pick ‘n roll. Deron Williams will get even better. Adding Brevin Knight helps a bit. You might say that Sloan is getting maximum return out of his talent.

Have they reached their ceiling? Will seven-foot draft choice Kostas Koufas get playing time?

They have two big problems to solve to be better this season: 1) Learn to play better on the road. 2) Carlos Boozer stepping up in the playoffs.

Portland 48-34 (LY= 41-41)

Greg Oden is the difference, and Portland is everybody’s favorite team to jump up this year. They could go even higher than seven over .500. Only another Oden injury can stop their march to legitimacy.

The Blazers are young and talented. With Oden teamed with Aldridge, and Pyzbilla backing up, they are solid up front.

Point guard is a question mark. Steve Blake has founda way to get serious minutes with limited athleticism, but solid, unflashy play. Jerryd Bayless was impressive in summer league play and looks like he will help. Spanish star Rudy Fernandez will come in behind Brandon Roy.

Has Ike Diogu finally found a team that can appreciate his skills? Bayless, Fernandez, Outlaw, Frye, Diogu, and Pryzbilla look like a talented bench to me.

Denver 40-42 (LY=50-32)

I used to say this team was what the Knicks hoped they would become. There are a lot of similarities. High priced, selfish talent—but Denver would at least win. I liked the team more before they traded Andre Miller.

Last year, this team went to the line more than any other, and had the biggest free-throw differential in the NBA.  But they didn't commit so few fouls because they played great defense.  Just the opposite.

The unloading of Marcus Camby for nothing ($10 million trade exception) sends a wrong signal to an underachieving, defensively-challenged team. They’ve added known defenders Dahntay Jones, Chris Anderson, and Renaldo Balkman, which makes it seem as if they are trying to focus on defense—until you realize they gave away a player one year removed from being the league’s top defender.

I’ve said for a while that this team has the talent on the roster. But they won’t go anywhere until Carmelo Anthony, Allen Iverson, and JR Smith play some defense. The word in Denver is that they understand this now after last year's playoff sweep.

I expect Allen Iverson and/or good-guy coach George Karl to be gone before the year is out, unless they change their ways. The team needs a shake up. If Denver achieves anything close to last year's record—and does it with defense—the Nuggets will become the shipwreck that didn't happen.

Minnesota 28-54  (LY=22-60)

By far the "foulingest" (new word) team, with 30 free-throw attempts per game for their opponents and a gaudy foul differential of -5.5, (-1.7 was the next closest) in the NBA last season.

Still on the smallish side and too young to make any real moves, but they should improve. Rookie Kevin Love and Mike Miller will help. If Al Jefferson and Love can make an offensive statement around the hoop, it will help open things up for three-point specialist Mike Miller and the rest of the team. The growing process continues.

Oklahoma City 22-60  (LY=20-62)

This team took the least number of three-point shots in the league last year. That won’t change too much.

It seems like rookie Russell Westbrook and Earl Watson will share PG minutes, Kevin Durant will shoot away, and the team will struggle again.

Average but not outstanding talent everywhere except for Durant. Joe Smith and Desmond Mason bring a desperately-needed veteran presence. I fear for PJ Carlesimo's job.

Next up: Southwest Division

This article first appeared in Tom Halzack's Celtic blog for the Connecticut Post.