WWE Royal Rumble Primer: Breaking Down a Six-Hour, 40-Man Royal Rumble Match

WWE's Royal Rumble emanates live from Boston, Massachusetts, which means WWE will have a hot crowd on hand and, if booked properly, this year's 40 man Royal Rumble match should be a spectacle in its truest form. 

WWE has been propagating the fact that the Royal Rumble match is 'all about the numbers' for years now.  With the Royal Rumble field being increased from 30 to 40 participants, simple math can project the most advantageous entry in the Royal Rumble match. 

In the history of the 30 man Royal Rumble match, No entry number has produced more winners than at entry no. 27.  Proportional algebra tells us that the optimal position to enter the Royal Rumble, based on prior statistics, is no. 36. 

Whoever draws no. 36 in my $40 Over the Top Rope challenge on the day of the Rumble shouldn't exactly start doing back flips, but they will definitely have the mathematical and statistical edge. 

With the Royal Rumble match being the big drawing card on the annual pay-per-view showcase, WWE tends to get lazy with the rest of the card.  Hell, last year WWE experimented with a Randy Orton face turn when they booked him against Sheamus and featured a heel vs. heel matchup for the WWE Championship. 

Despite having a month for a proper build up, Miz vs. Orton is not a can't miss main event matchup despite the novelty in which this particular matchup still holds. 

I am still of the opinion that WWE should have cultivated the built in Miz/Morrison feud that they had at their fingertips following Morrison's win in a  no. 1 contender's ladder match against Sheamus at WWE TLC as part of his ongoing push.  Instead, WWE basically gave away Miz/Morrison on free just weeks later on RAW.  This continued a highly unproductive pattern of WWE routinely giving away pay-per-view caliber matches on free TV (instead of building to them) when presented with a nice long period of time in between pay-per-views. 

In fact, WWE has done such a crappy job of building up its non-Royal Rumble matches that, later on in this primer, I will give a similarly half-assed effort of picking the winners in these matches in a single sentence.

2011 Royal Rumble Match - Themes to watch

Surprises.  WWE loves surprises, and they love revealing them in bunches at the Royal Rumble match.  Part of the upside of having 40 men in this year's Royal Rumble match is not only the chance to make select wrestlers look strong by eliminating an inflated amount of participants, but also the increased opportunity  for surprises. 

Here's a list of possible surprise entrants in the Royal Rumble match:

Pete Rose-  Remember Wrestlemania XIV?  Pete Rose stormed into Boston, with the Swagger of Curt Schilling in a bloody sock, and completely took a big steaming Schilling on the entire Bostonian crowd.  Rose even dropped a Bill Buckner reference in one of the truly awesome celebrity promos in Wrestlemania history.  Pete Rose famously had his thunder stolen by Kane and Rose would subsequently take a tombstone piledriver from WWE's Big Red Machine.  Why not have Rose come in at some point and cut another scathing promo on the city of losers, only to have Kane storm into the TD Garden as the ensuing entrant and dispose of Rose to the delight of the Boston crowd. 

Shaquille O'Neal-  A Royal Rumble showdown with the Big Show, in his current home city of Boston, would bring wrestling pundits and media outlets to near-climax levels of excitement.  The fact that Shaq would likely have to take a bump over the top rope makes his presence a near impossibility.  But should WWE somehow pull off a Shaquille O'Neal sighting in the Royal Rumble match, at least make him wear that mask again. 

Bart Scott- The New York Jets' season is over and Bart Scott is not going to be participating in the NFL Pro Bowl this weekend.  After that epic promo he cut on the New England Patriots, a promo he admitted was inspired by his love for pro wrestling, Scott would enter the Royal Rumble in Boston, Massachusetts as the biggest heel in the TD Garden.  If I found out right now that Bart Scott was to be announced as a Royal Rumble participant in the 2011 Royal Rumble, my reaction would be summarized in two capitalized words:  CAN'T WAIT!

Batista- Don't count on it.  He's currently preparing for a debut with Strikeforce.

Chris Jericho- With Triple H almost a lock to return, a Jericho return in the same match could be seen as a bit much and would steal Triple H's thunder.    

Jerry Lawler- Lawler has been actively involved in the Miz's championship storyline, and with the Royal Rumble going to 40 men, don't sleep on Lawler making a surprise entry.

Tamina- Who would go on to eliminate both Santino Marella and her father Jimmy 'Superfly' Snuka.

Skip Sheffield- Sheffield is due to return any minute now, and with the Corre/Nexus storyline in full swing, now would be a perfect time for Sheffield to even up the odds by aligning himself with Wade Barrett and Corre. 

Awesome Kong- The pre-Awesome Kong Comedy act era in WWE would kick off to an exciting start should this mammoth woman debut at the Royal Rumble match.

Evan Bourne [UPDATE!]- How could I forget about Evan Bourne, who joins Skip Sheffield and Triple H in the 'returning from injury' category.  Expect an overachieving performance in the Royal Rumble from Bourne should he return as there have been talks of giving him a sizable push in the future.

Triple H- Notice how the surprise-o-meter is settling down into acceptable levels of reasonableness.  Despite barely being mentioned on WWE TV leading up to the Royal Rumble match, Triple H has become a popular pick to not only return at the Royal Rumble match, but win it.  

The Miz- Pro wrestling insiders and Internet fans are always complaining about how they've seen it all in pro wrestling.  What we haven't seen is a heavyweight champion enter and win the Royal Rumble match as champion during the #1 contender era of the Royal Rumble match.  Just imagine the heel implications of a champion trying to fight for what 39 other men are desperately seeking despite the fact that he already has it. 

Not to go all conspiracy theorist, but just what is in that briefcase Miz and Riley have been carrying around?  Miz already cashed in his Money in the Bank contract, so why does he still have to carry around a briefcase?  Could the contents be an addendum to a WWE contract permitting Miz to participate in the Royal Rumble?  Besides, if WWE still wants to unify the heavyweight championships at Wrestlemania XXVII in Atlanta as has been discussed, what better way than to have the WWE Champion win the Royal Rumble and pit the winners of the ensuing Elimination Chamber matches against each other in the main event of Wrestemania XXVII?  The tournament-style, two month build to the main event match would be befitting of what would be the most important heavyweight championship match in WWE in years. 

Inflated eliminations.  40 men in the Royal Rumble match will give WWE's emphasized talent more opportunities to shine.  Expect a high amount of eliminations from John Morrison, Alberto Del Rio, CM Punk, Sheamus, and Wade Barrett with somebody possibly breaking Kane's record 11 victories on the ten year anniversary of his classic 2001 Royal Rumble performance. 

Non-Royal Rumble Match Predictions

As promised, here are my picks for the non-Royal Rumble matches in one sentence.   

The Miz over Randy Orton.  With Miz still on the interview circuit, and telling anybody willing to listen to him about the prestige of the WWE Brand, the only way he's losing this belt any time soon is at his house. 

Edge over Dolph Ziggler.  If this is the case, Ziggler would be a lock to win the Money in the Bank match at Wrestlemania if it weren't for John Morrison. 

Natalya over LayCool.  Because the stars may finally be aligned for Natalya/Phoenix in April. 

Royal Rumble Match: The Primer within a Primer

In this primer-within-a-primer, breaking down the Royal Rumble match, I will outline the favorites and darkhorses involved in the Royal Rumble match before ultimately picking who I feel will be in the final four, as well as a winner. 

Favorites

John Cena-  Cena/Miz seems to be your Wrestlemania XXVII main event, and John Cena goes into the 2011 Royal Rumble in the Hulk Hogan position as the odds on favorite.

Triple H- Triple H is fully healed from nagging injuries, and is expected to make his return at the Royal Rumble match.  Many seem to think that it's a foregone conclusion that Sheamus and Triple H will face off come Wrestlemania, but don't be too sure about that.  The two could easily blow off their feud at Elimination Chamber (or worse yet on a free episode of RAW) before a possible feud between Triple H and the Undertaker. 

CM Punk- One of the main storylines heading into the 2011 Royal Rumble match is CM Punk and his strength in numbers with the new Nexus stable.  It is highly likely that Punk won't win the Royal Rumble match, but he definitely qualifies as a favorite. 

Alberto Del Rio-  ADR has been talking up his 'destiny' of winning the Royal Rumble match, however this reeks of a red herring, or a diversion from a possible surprise winner, similar to when Kurt Angle all but incorrectly guaranteed a Royal Rumble win in 2002.  

Darkhorses

John Morrison-  Morrison has received a nice little push leading into the Royal Rumble, and he is surely going to be booked strongly in the Royal Rumble match, marathon style.  A John Morrison win at the Royal Rumble is unlikely, but not impossible. 

Wade Barrett- As the leader of the other main event stable in the Royal Rumble, expect Wade Barrett to be booked strongly in the Royal Rumble match.  The current plan is to have Barrett face off with the Undertaker at Wrestlemania, and with that match sure to be a non-title contest, it would be quite a reach to pick Wade Barrett to win the Royal Rumble.

Sheamus- Sheamus' stock has taken a nosedive at the expense of getting John Morrison over and bolstering WWE's perennially weak babyface ranks, however the 2010 King of the Ring should get much of his heat back through a high amount of eliminations at the Royal Rumble match. 

The Miz- Don't sleep on a possible surprise appearance by the WWE Champion.  It would be the only legitimate shock that the Royal Rumble could possibly deliver, because whispers of Triple H's return have been louder than Gary Busey. 

Final Four

John Morrison, Triple H, CM Punk, Wade Barrett

Big Nasty's Pick...

Triple H.  Triple H is expected to return from injury at the Royal Rumble, and all signs point to a return in the Royal Rumble match itself.  Triple H returning, only to be eliminated, would immediately take the wind out of his sales no matter how the elimination is booked.  Such a big story of Triple H's return would be a sidenote on WWE.com if he didn't win the event, and Sidenote Helmsley is not popping as big of a rating the next night on RAW. 

In two of the past three years at the Royal Rumble match, a WWE Superstar has returned from injury to win the Royal Rumble match despite the previously ironed out Wrestlemania plans that were blindly accepted by dirtsheet America because Dave Meltzer incorrectly disseminated them.

WWE can easily improvise, or perhaps navigate around, the Sheamus/Triple H feud with Triple H as your 2011 Royal Rumble winner.  WWE has shown a propensity of going against the obvious favorite in the Royal Rumble match (which, in this case, would be John Cena), and Triple H going over would create a buzz while creating interest in an obscure Wrestlemania picture.

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