Phil Mickelson Can Win More Majors: A 2011 PGA Tour Special Edition Article

As the 2011 PGA Tour opens, Phil Mickelson and Tiger Woods find themselves in unfamiliar territory. For most of the past decade, the game’s two superstars enjoyed wins, endorsements and fan affection. However, 2010 was not too kind. While Tiger struggled with his family crisis, Phil peaked at Augusta before his swing and joints failed him.

Shortly after the U.S. Open, Phil Mickelson learned that he had psoriatic arthritis, a condition in which the immune system attacks joints and tendons. This occurred less than a year after Phil learned both his wife and his mom have breast cancer. Still, by the time the Ryder Cup finished on a sour note for the Americans, Phil and Tiger’s legacy was little more than a footnote.

Tiger Woods is now divorced. With a custody plan in place, Tiger's focus is back on golf. Normally, such news would shake fellow golf competitors to their core; but Tiger's image and aura are gone. For the rest of his career, Tiger Woods will have to rely upon skill alone to win golf tournaments. He's more than capable.

Phil Mickelson is another story. Even with a stabilized medication plan and his wife and mother in remission, Phil turns 41 in June. And as his physical prime appears in the rear-view mirror, Phil must tighten up his belt and his swing.

A statistical analysis of Phil Mickelson's game over the past decade shows a dramatic difference between two time periods: 2004 to 2006 and 2008 to 2010. Phil changed swing coaches during 2007, so that season is omitted from comparison.

Between '04 and '06, Mickelson won nine times, including three major championships. From '08 to '10, Mickelson won five regular tournaments and one major. On the surface, nothing major appears awry.

However, the PGA Tour keeps track of every shot made by its nearly 200 participants. Some statistics are more important than others. "Ball striking" is a crucial category. The ball striking statistic is calculated by averaging two rankings: total driving and greens in regulation. Phil Mickelson's ball striking is keeping him from reaching his full potential.

To break the ball striking formula down for comprehension, the total driving portion of the equation averages a player's rankings in driving distance and driving accuracy.

Phil Mickelson's driving distance has remained nearly constant during his tour career, ranging from 295 to 302 yards. Phil's driving accuracy, by contrast, has varied dramatically.

On average, Phil Mickelson hit the fairway 60 percent of the time between 2004 and 2006, compared to 53 percent between 2008 and 2010. The 7 percent difference may not seem consequential, but, the slightest statistical change in putting or ball striking can be the difference between winning majors and missing cuts.

During the 2010 season, 20 percent of Phil Mickelson's tee shots ended up in the left rough. Unfortunately, another 16 percent ended up in the right rough, making his misses as unpredictable as his scores. Throw in fairway bunkers, hazards and out-of-bounds stakes and Phil Mickelson missed the fairway a career-high 47 percent of the time last season. Lately, Phil Mickelson can only tell you where his ball is not going: straight.

Missing the fairway is the first step to missing the green. Missing the green in regulation is a significant mark toward irrelevance on the highly competitive tour. In regulation play, a par 3 is only achieved if a player's tee shot reaches the green. For a par 4, the second shot must reach the green. Finally, on par-5 holes, a player reaches the green in regulation if his third shot rests on the green's surface.

From '04 to '06, Phil Mickelson ranked an average of 27th in the second part of the ball striking formula, greens in regulation, placing him in the top tier of tour players. By contrast, his average dropped all the way to 115th from 2008 to 2010. It's clear that missed fairways aren't the only problem in Phil's game.

Put the driving accuracy and greens in regulation numbers together and you have the statistic keeping Phil from winning more majors. The tables below show the sharp drop in Phil's tour ranking during the comparative time periods:

                                                 Ball Striking

The difference in those numbers is staggering. To make matters worse, Phil's ranking has dropped during each of the past three years.

For the past several seasons, golf analysts have noted excessive leg action in Mickelson's swing. Last season, Phil spent most of his time working on putting drills with specialist Dave Stockton. However, Phil's overall putting numbers have improved from the 2004 to 2006 time period to present day. So while putting is not an issue, denial may be.

As Phil prepares for his first 2011 tour appearance in Dubai, he faces an uncertain future. For the first time, much of that uncertainty rests on what used to be Phil's sanctuary: the golf course.

Currently, Lefty owns four major championships and 38 wins on tour. He possesses enough natural talent to win a few more majors without making significant changes. His short game is that good.

However, for a guy regarded as Tiger's peer in talent, anything short of eight to 10 career majors would leave a legacy of unfulfilled promise. Phil's path to winning more majors must begin with statistical improvement through a more compact swing. Like the movie, the wise move would be for Phil to go “Back to the Future,” re-employ Rick Smith as swing coach and attack the season with his old new swing. If Phil stumbles out of the gate, don't be surprised to see such a change in the works.

Hitting more fairways will lead to reaching more greens in regulation and improved overall ball striking numbers, all of which could lead to the one thing Phil wants most: a U.S. Open. As always, it's up to the über-talented and sometimes equally stubborn Phil Mickelson.

Time is ticking while those five U.S. Open runner-up finishes weigh heavily on his mind. With all the cash he needs already in the bank and yet so much on the line, it's time to ask the question from those old Ford commercials: "What will Phil do next?"