NFL Week Two: Packers-Lions Preview

Following their embarrassing loss to the Atlanta Falcons, many people may be thinking the Lions are no match for a team that finished 13-3 last year. Especially since that team is virtually the same one that was one play away from beating the eventual Superbowl Champions in the playoffs, and the one major change, quarterback Aaron Rodgers, was very impressive.

Let's hope none of those with that impression are wearing the "G" on their helmets Sunday. This game is the quintessential trap game, being sandwiched between the opener against the prime contender for the division and the favourite for the conference.

This Lions team is dangerous enough to beat any team that does not come prepared. Moreover, they match up pretty well against the Packers best strength, their pass defense.

Jon Kitna is probably the best quarterback in the NFC North. He certainly lacks Rodgers' upside, but makes up for it in proven success and experience.

Furthermore, the Lions receiving corps is one of the few in the NFL to be considered by anyone better than Green Bay's. I still believe that the Packers are better at the very top (Donald Driver) and the bottom (Jordy Nelson and Ruvell Martin) than the Lions, and that gives them the edge. We need only to point to the Packers corps leading the NFL in yards after the catch last year as evidence.

But the point is that the comparison is certainly up for debate, and the Packers do lack depth on the corners. Moreover, they are not entering fully healthy: they have been banged up all pre-season and Charles Woodson is on the injury report this week.

The Lions should also have a more balanced attack this season, with rookie Kevin Smith and former Bengal Rudi Johnson re-energizing their rushing attack. It will also be used more now that the pass-every-down approach of erstwhile offensive coordinator Mike Martz was fired with him in the off-season.

Thus, unlike the game against the Vikings, this one is going to require offensive success to achieve victory. The Lions defense is not very good, and the Packers need to exploit their most favourable match-ups: their elite receivers agains the Lions questionable secondary and their strong offensive line against the Lions unimpressive pass rush.

That places the success of the Packers more squarely on the right arm of Aaron Rodgers. Against the Vikings, he was nearly flawless, with no turnovers and missing on only four passes, two of which were from him throwing the ball away to avoid a sack.

Those throw-aways, coupled with his feet, prevented him from even having a negative play. He avoided all sacks while getting 36 yards on his six scrambles.

But in that game, he was called upon to manage the game, just avoiding negative plays. As a result, he had just one pass completion deep and two over 20 yards.

In contrast, against the Lions he will be called upon to get big plays in the passing game. The Lions ranked 31st against the pass last season and have not upgraded their pass defense. On the other hand, the Lions yielded the 12th fewest pass plays of 20+ yards and tied for 12th fewest in pass plays of 40+ yards.

Thus, this will be a good test to see if the young quarterback can handle the additional demands in his second NFL start--one with good chance of success but not one in which that success is guaranteed.

Packers, 31-20.

Finally, rather than post my weekly predictions around the league separately, I include them in this post. Remember, the number of the ranking only implies how sure I am of the team winning (one being least, 16 most), not how many points they will win by.

1. Panthers--still don't believe in the Bears
   
2. Broncos--San Diego hurting without Merriman
   
3. Colts--Manning gets back on track against this secondary
   
4. Steelers--Browns may not be ready to contend
5. Cowboys--Eagles will be a big test
   
6. Seahawks--ravaged with injuries, Niners are what the doctor ordered
   
7. Titans--it is clear Young is a troubled young man
8. Chiefs--Raiders are proverbial House Divided
9. Texans--offer Houston a distraction, but will they be distracted?
10. Jaguars--careful, their offensive line has lost four people since OTAs
11. Jets--should smell blood against a team that inspires that approach
12. Packers--trap game (see above)
13. Cardinals--Dolphins have even less talent than Niners
14. Buccaneers--why on earth would Gruden want to dump Garcia?
15. Saints--should be able to overcome injuries against inept offense
16. Giants--really the only sure thing on schedule, so they'll probably lose

Last week's record: 11-5 (.688). Last week's point total 91 of 136 (.669).