NFL Playoffs: Divisional Round Preview

The divisional round of the 2011 NFL playoffs has a sequel-type feel to it. That’s because each of this weekend’s four matchups are rematches from the regular season. After a truly “Wild” card weekend which featured a monumental upset that resulted in a literal earthquake, not to mention three road victories, what does the divisional round have in store? I’ll give you my take on what’s going to happen.

We’ll start where the trash talk is being thrown around like cornhole bags at a tailgate party.

Patriots-Jets:

The Gang Green fan base will point to its 28-14 victory over New England. Patriots fans will laugh and rub a 45-3 Monday Night Football thrashing in the Jets faces. And possibly Rex Ryan’s feet, I heard he likes that stuff (sorry I had to). 

But in all seriousness, Sunday’s game between the two will be their fifth meeting in the past two seasons with the series standing at 2-2. That record indicates that this game will be close and it will be, at least closer than the last one.

I still like the Patriots here because as much as people are pointing to New York’s Week two victory, that was a completely different New England team. Bill Belichick may be the Einstein of the NFL, trading away one of the most elite wide receivers in history mid-season. Why does that make him Einstein? Because it remodeled and improved the Patriot offense to a degree it hasn’t seen since the 2007 season where Tom Brady tossed 50 touchdowns.

Belichick and Brady decided to showcase the new and improved offense in their drubbing of the Jets, handing Ryan the most humiliating defeat of his young head coaching career. The short, underneath passing game has shredded just about everyone this season as the Pats have averaged 32 points per game.

The only way the Jets win this one is by forcing early turnovers, scoring off those turnovers, and running the ball moderately well. If New York is forced to rely on Mark Sanchez to win them the game, they have no chance. Seeing as Sanchez overthrew 20 of his 31 passes last weekend in perfect indoor conditions, how well do you think he’ll throw in the bitter cold and probably snowy Foxboro?  

Brady hasn’t thrown an interception since October 17^th and the Patriots have only one turnover since Week 7. Sorry Sexy Rexy… season’s over.  There’s a reason Vegas has the line favoring the Patriots by 10.

Prediction: Patriots 24, Jets 13

Steelers-Ravens:

These two teams have met nine times since 2003 and each have scored 302 points on the nose. If that doesn’t tell you how close every single one of these games is, take the last four games into account: each has been decided by a field goal. Colts-Patriots may be the most entertaining rivalry in the NFL but the Ravens-Steelers rivalry has become the bitterest. Each team has the upmost respect for the other but each also loathes the other.

It’s hard to analyze what happened in this year’s two contests and relate them to what’s going to happen Saturday afternoon. The Ravens won in Pittsburgh against a Roethlisberger-less Pittsburgh squad while the Steelers stole one late in Baltimore later in the season.

I would give the Steelers the defensive edge and the Ravens a slight offensive edge. Pittsburgh’s Achilles heel is its offensive line which doesn’t bode well for the injury-plagued yet warrior-like Big Ben. The Ravens biggest weakness is its inability to consistently run the ball, and seeing as Ray Rice is their premier weapon, that’s a significant issue.

The game will be decided by how well Joe Flacco plays. If he plays well, doesn’t turn the ball over, and is able to stretch the Steeler defense with his laser-like out-route throws, the Ravens advance. If he doesn’t and Pittsburgh’s offensive line ensures that Charlie Batch doesn’t enter the game, the Steelers win. I’m taking the Ravens on the road because I think bye-week rust plays a big enough factor with the Steelers. 

Prediction: Ravens 16, Steelers 13

So Ravens-Patriots in Foxboro for the AFC Championship. Patriots defeated Baltimore 23-20 in overtime earlier this year, but that was also the last time Brady threw an interception. Two of them actually.

Falcons-Packers:

Round one was decided by what’s becoming a vintage “Matty Ice” drive in which Ryan led the Dirty Birds down the field for a game-winning field with nine ticks on the clock. Packers fans vividly remember that as the game where Aaron Rodger’s fumbled on the goal line otherwise Green Bay wins that one. And the Cheeseheads are right, they would have. But they didn’t.

A big reason for that was the Packers inability to run the ball and the Falcons to run it just enough. Atlanta racked up 117 yards on the ground compared to Green Bay’s 77. Rodger’s threw for 341 yards while Ryan threw for just 177, but it was the Rodgers fumble, the game’s lone turnover that decided the game. So Atlanta’s defense made the big play to preserve that victory.

I think defense is what decides Saturday’s matchup as well. The Packers give up the second fewest points in the league and the fifth fewest yards while also boasting the leagues ninth best offense. Rodgers has been lights out since coming back from his second concussion and shredded the Eagles last weekend. Meanwhile the Falcons last four quarterbacks they’ve faced? Jimmy Clausen, Drew Brees, Matt Hasselbeck, and Jimmy Clausen. Not great opposition from under center with the exception of Brees, who beat them.

I think factoring in the lack of competition the last few weeks, and the week off will result in significant rust from Atlanta.  Ryan is a good quarterback when he has his run game complimenting him, but I think Packers shut Michael Turner down, making Ryan relatively ineffective.

Prediction: Packers 27, Falcons 17

Bears-Seahawks:

Seattle enters Sunday’s game the same way they did last week’s versus the Saints—a double-digit underdog. The Seahawks grasped a sense of vindication with their stunning victory over the defending Super Bowl champions, proving that despite their sub .500 record, they do belong in the playoffs.

Seattle pulled off the shocker with a combination of Matt Hasselbeck playing the game of his life, the Saints secondary running like tortoises, and Marshawn Lynch rumblin’,bumblin’, stumblin’ for one of the greatest runs in NFL history. Hate to be the BEARer of bad news (pun intended) Seahawk fans but the Bears defense is fast and can tackle. Seattle isn’t putting 41 up on Chicago, and that’s why I think they’ll lose.

Yes the Seahawks won the first matchup, but the Bears offensive line couldn’t block anybody at that point of the season and Mike Williams had his coming out party. Jay Cutler had more rushing yards than Matt Forte and the Seahawks still barely held on 23-20.

The Bears have always been great at stopping the run so all they have to do is not let Hasselbeck float the ball over the top of the safeties like he did against New Orleans and it’s smooth sailing. Only way Seattle wins this is if the bad version of Cutler appears in his first career playoff game, which is somewhat likely. I think he’ll thrive under the pressure as he has the majority of this season.

Prediction: Bears 31, Seahawks 17

Can you think of a much better matchup for the NFC Championship than the NFL’s oldest rivalry? We’re primed for some great playoff action these next couple weeks.