Virtual Playoff: How Week Three Will Affect National Championship Race

My regular readers know that I consider meetings between ranked teams to be the equivalent of traditional playoff games. Many college football fans clamor every year for a playoff, while they don't appreciate the one they already have. As college football fans, we get 13 weeks of playoff games, not just three weeks at the end of the year like the NFL.

Rather than break down the games and predict winner and losers, I'm examining this week's "playoff" games with an eye toward considering the possible National Championship Game implications of a win or loss by either team.

USC (1) vs. Ohio State (5)

Clearly whoever wins is going to be in a commanding position to be ranked No. 1 at the end of the regular season, assuming the winner remains undefeated. In case of a loss on Saturday, both teams are currently ranked high enough that neither will be knocked out of the race either.

Unfortunately, neither team has an opponent remaining on their schedule who looks like it could provide the type of quality win that one-loss teams need to climb back up the polls.

Also, neither team plays in a conference with a championship game, so they will also lack that last opportunity to shine that has been critical for some one-loss teams in the past. As one-lossers, both would be forced to hope the Floridas, Oklahomas, Missouris et al. sustain at least one defeat themselves.

Nobody wants to be in the one-loss team beauty contest the first week of December, but it might be an especially bad spot for OSU due to their disappointing performance in the last two NC games.

As usual, Saturday night is do or (probably) die—in other words, a virtual "playoff" game.

Kansas (13) at South Florida (19)

I hope they schedule more Friday night games. We miss so many great contests because everything's scheduled together on Saturdays.

South Florida is going to be in a hopeless position with a loss here. In the weak Big East, they have absolutely no chance for another quality win to climb back up in the rankings.

West Virginia really shafted them by losing to East Carolina last week. South Florida's last game of the year is at West Virginia. A one-loss South Florida team could have held out hope that a convincing win against WVU on the road the last week of the season might have put them in the mix. Now they have to go undefeated.

I'm sorry to point out that even if South Florida beats Kansas and wins out, they still might need some help to get into the NC game. Tough being the new kid on the block.

Kansas clearly will be in much better shape in case of a loss. They have plenty of games left in which to redeem themselves with pollsters against the likes of Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Missouri, plus the Big 12 Championship game. Also, they are starting out higher than South Florida, ranked at No. 13.

I'm not crazy about Kansas' overall chances this season because they have to play on the road against the two best teams in the Big 12, Missouri and Oklahoma.  As usual, they will also have to beat Oklahoma twice—again in the Big 12 Championship—to go all the way. That's an awfully tall order.

Wisconsin (10) at Fresno St. (21)

Kudos to the Badgers for scheduling a quality opponent on the road outside of their weak conference. This should be a great game. It starts at 10:30 pm on my East Coast, which means it will conclude well after 1 am.

I admit, that's way past my bedtime. If the score is lopsided at halftime, I guarantee you I will hit the sack, definitely before Lou Holtz starts talking.

Unfortunately for Fresno St., even an undefeated season can't get them into the NC game. Them's the breaks if you're not a BCS conference team.

Don't like it? Shut up and join the Pac-10. Yeah, you too Hawaii, Utah, and Boise State.

A one-loss Wisconsin team still has a chance. They have Ohio State left on the schedule, who could be No. 1 when they meet Wisconsin on Oct 4. If I'm a Badger fan, I'm rooting for OSU on Saturday night.  Penn State is also on their schedule, so that could be another opportunity to get back in the mix, depending on where PSU is ranked when they play.

Finally, starting out ranked 10th, Wisconsin will be in a better position to recover than most in the Top 25.

Wisconsin has a decent chance to go to the NC game. It's so much easier for Big Ten teams, especially if they draw a high preseason rank like the Badgers did this year.

It would be a big help to them if OSU beat USC though, but if they go undefeated they should still end up No. 1 or No. 2. It's not easy, but at least they don't have a Pac-10, SEC, or Big 12 schedule, and they play the Buckeyes at home this year.

Another great weekend of college football. Enjoy, everybody!!!!!