NFL Week Two Predictions

By Paul Bessire, WhatIfSports.com

Each Tuesday morning we will preview every NFL game of the upcoming week. Rosters and depth charts are up to date and as accurate as possible as of Tuesday morning before the week.

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The inputs to the 201 simulations of each upcoming game are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings and then makes modifications for injuries and depth at each position.

Games of the Week

No. 6 Philadelphia at No. 1 Dallas

Both of these teams looked great in their openers and both look like legitimate contenders for the NFC Championship and the Super Bowl. While Philadelphia beat up on the worst team in the NFL (according our power rankings) at home, Dallas went on the road and dominated the preseason favorite to win the AFC North.

The Cowboys stand as our clear No. 1 team in the league right now. The Eagles pose a threat and win this game about a quarter of the time (27%), but, as it stands, the Cowboys are the favorite in every game on the schedule and this is no exception.

Dallas wins 25-15.

No. 9 New England at No. 15 New York Jets

Who would have thought that two months ago that this game would be all that close, let alone see the Jets as the favorite with Brett Favre at quarterback and Matt Cassell under center for the Patriots?

Favre did not look exceptional at Miami; he looked like Brett Favre. The Jets' pass rush is vastly improved from last year, but it is still a work in progress. This is not a make-or-break game for Matt Cassell and the Patriots; however, if they can win it, like they do 32 percent of the time in the simulation, New England could be as close to "back on track" as they can get without Tom Brady.

New York wins 24-17.

No. 5 Pittsburgh at No. 13 Cleveland

Cleveland's brutal showing at home against the Dallas Cowboys and a dominant performance by Pittsburgh have drastically changed the way this game is viewed. The Browns came into the year with expectations of winning the division. They could still do just that and this game will play a big factor in their chances.

Cleveland's defensive backfield is going to have to show up against Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, and the Steelers' passing attack if they want to keep it a close game. We give Ben Roethlisberger 222 yards through the air, while Willie Parker and Rashard Mendenhall combine for 141.7 rushing yards en route to a win 62 percent of the time.

Pittsburgh wins 23-16.

No. 3 Indianapolis at No. 8 Minnesota

What should we make of these two teams? The Colts' offense was not clicking in week one against the Bears and now they play Minnesota, which has another one of the best defenses in the league.

If Tarvaris Jackson can do his best Kyle Orton impression (yes, I just said that) by limiting mistakes and completing more than half of his passes, the Vikings should prevail.

We give that exactly a 50 percent chance, yet the Vikings earn the edge, mostly due to home field advantage. On paper, these teams appear to be of similar caliber. At this point we expect that that caliber is that of one of the best in the league. Time will tell.

Minnesota wins 23-21.

Week 2 Scores for Every NFL Game

Matchup	Home Win%	Avg Score
Chicago @ Carolina	74.6	15-27
Miami @ Arizona	74.1	21-29
Philadelphia @ Dallas	72.6	15-25
Atlanta @ Tampa Bay	71.6	18-27
New England @ New York	67.7	17-24
Baltimore @ Houston	67.2	18-24
Oakland @ Kansas City	65.2	21-26
San Francisco @ Seattle	65.2	15-21
Buffalo @ Jacksonville	60.2	17-21
Indianapolis @ Minnesota	50.2	21-23
New Orleans @ Washington	43.8	24-19
San Diego @ Denver	41.3	26-21
Pittsburgh @ Cleveland	37.8	23-16
Green Bay @ Detroit	30.3	27-19
Tennessee @ Cincinnati	28.9	27-17
New York @ St. Louis	20.9	29-16

 

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