Chip Kelly: Why His Oregon Ducks Are a Lock for 2011 BCS Championship

Most predictions favoring Auburn revolve around the deification of Cam Newton and smug assumptions about the superiority of the SEC. 

Don’t believe them.  Chip Kelly’s fast-paced offense has been the story of the season and by the end of the night, his Oregon Ducks will be the team of the season.

Oregon’s offense is historically dangerous, and its excellent defense more than holds its end of the bargain.

That’s too much for an Auburn team with too many vulnerabilities to overcome.  Even one with Cam Newtown that went undefeated in the SEC.

Here are 10 reasons why Chip Kelly’s Oregon Ducks are a lock for the 2011 BCS Championship.

10. When Auburn Punts, Good Things Will Happen for Oregon

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EUGENE, OR - NOVEMBER 6: Cornerback Cliff Harris #13 of the Oregon Ducks runs back a punt in the fourth quarter of the game against the Washington Huskies at Autzen Stadium on November 6, 2010 in Eugene, Oregon. The Ducks won the game 53-16. (Photo by Ste

For a team that survived the brutal gauntlet of the SEC, Auburn has some pronounced weaknesses.  One of these is its punting game: the Tigers ranked last in the SEC and 91^st in the nation in net punting.

The Tigers will be punting to an Oregon team that led the nation in punt returns with an 18.2-yard average.  And they’ll be punting to a player, All-American returner Cliff Harris, who took four punts to the house and might be the most electrifying player in the game not named Newton.

9. Auburn Starts Slow. Oregon Finishes Fast

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EUGENE, OR - SEPTEMBER 04: Running back Kenjon Barner #24 of the Oregon Ducks breaks loose for a touchdown in the first quarter of the game against the New Mexico Lobos at Autzen Stadium on September 4, 2010 in Eugene, Oregon. Barner had 225 total yards

The Tigers have scrapped from behind all season against opponents like Clemson, South Carolina, Georgia and Alabama.

That speaks volumes for the Tigers’ character, but poorly of their chances in this one.  Good luck coming back against the Ducks, who have outscored opponents 277 to 77 in the second half and 115 to 24 in the fourth quarter.

8. Casey Matthews Will Shadow Cam Newton

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EUGENE, OR - SEPTEMBER 04: Linebacker Casey Matthews #55 of the Oregon Ducks rushes the quarterback in the second quarter of the game against the New Mexico Lobos at Autzen Stadium on September 4, 2010 in Eugene, Oregon. Oregon won the game 72-0. (Photo

Matthews—whose older brother, Clay, wrought havoc on Michael Vick yesterday—has the athleticism and instincts to contain Newton.

The middle linebacker with the deep football pedigree was a first team All-Pac 10 selection.  He has 73 tackles, three sacks, three interceptions and three fumble recoveries this year.

What’s more, his own mother told him that he had to play “slightly insane” tonight.  Insane is great, but it works better when complimented by a healthy dose of discipline.

7. LaMichael James Is Too Good for Even Auburn's Run Defense

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CORVALLIS, OR - DECEMBER 4: LaMichael James #21 of the Oregon Ducks celebrates a touchdown in the fourth quarter of the game at Reser Stadium on December 4, 2010 in Corvallis, Oregon. The Ducks beat the Beavers 37-20 to likely go on to the BCS Championshi

Auburn’s run defense is excellent, ranking 11^th in the nation in rushing yards allowed. 

That’s all well and good, but it’s not good enough to stop LaMichael James and the Ducks' rushing attack.  Running behind an athletic offensive line, the electrifying James led the nation with 152.9 yards per game. 

The line and James are perfect compliments to each other: the linemen block well in space, and James is quick to recognize holes and accelerate through them.

Kenjon Barner, James’s backup, was excellent as well, amassing 519 yards on just 80 carries for a 6.5 yards per carry average on the season.

6. Cliff Harris Is a Shutdown Corner

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BERKELEY, CA - NOVEMBER 13: Cliff Harris #13 of the Oregon Ducks celebrates after he returned a punt for a touchdown against the California Golden Bears at California Memorial Stadium on November 13, 2010 in Berkeley, California. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Ge

Oregon has an antidote for No. 1 Auburn receiver Darvin Adams, whose 909 yards were 324 more than Auburn’s second best receiver.

His name is Cliff Harris and he’s a second team All-American cornerback who made five interceptions this year.  Harris’s 20 passes defended and 15 pass breakups were top in the nation.

He also showed a knack for rising to higher levels of competition when he picked off Stanford’s Andrew Luck twice.

On the other side, Talmadge Jackson isn’t a flashy player, but he’s talented enough to receive All-Pac 10 honors.

5. Turnover Margin

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TUCSON, AZ - NOVEMBER 21: Defensive end Will Tukuafu #39 of the Oregon Ducks recovers a fumble from David Roberts #81 of the Arizona Wildcats in the endzone during the college football game at Arizona Stadium on November 21, 2009 in Tucson, Arizona. The

Oregon ranked third in the nation in turnovers forced with 35 and their plus-13 margin compares favorably to Auburn’s plus-5.

Oregon has twice as many interceptions as Auburn at 20 to 10.  Cornerback Cliff Harris and safety John Boyett have five picks apiece, as many as the entire Auburn team.

4. Auburn's Secondary Can Be Gotten To

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CORVALLIS, OR - DECEMBER 04: Darron Thomas #1 of the Oregon Ducks throws a pass against the Oregon State Beavers during the 114th Civil War on December 4, 2010 at the Reser Stadium in Corvallis, Oregon. (Photo by Jonathan Ferrey/Getty Images)

Auburn’s biggest weakness is its pass defense, which ranked 105^th in the nation. 

That’s a staggering vulnerability for a team with championship aspirations.

Meanwhile, while Oregon is known primarily for its running game, its passing game is nothing to sneeze at.  Darron Thomas is the economy-sized version of Cam Newton.  Thomas’s stats aren’t quite as eye-popping as Newton’s, but they’re nearly identical in terms of TD to INT ratio (28: 7 for Thomas, 28:6 for Newton) and yards per carry (5.7 for Thomas, 5.8 for Newton).

Sure, Thomas’s average of 7.8 yards per attempt is significantly lower than Newton’s 9.8, and Newton is much more prolific on the ground (492 yards for Thomas, 1,409 for Newton). 

But this statistical difference doesn’t quite justify why one of these quarterbacks is considered a mere system player while the other is considered the Greatest Thing Since Sliced Bread.

3. Oregons Defense Is Wildly Underrated

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EUGENE, OR - SEPTEMBER 18: Defensive tackle Brandon Bair #88 of the Oregon Ducks reaches out to tackle quarterback Connor Kavanaugh #10 in the second quarter of the game against the Portland State Vikings at Autzen Stadium on September 18, 2010 in Eugene,

Chip Kelly’s offense gets all the plaudits, but Nick Alioti’s defense ain’t half bad itself. 

Oregon’s defense ranked 14^th in points per game with 18.4, compared to Auburn’s 53^rd ranked 24.5 points allowed.  Despite usually playing to protect second half leads, the Ducks still ranked 25^th in total yards allowed.

The Ducks also generated 35 turnovers, third most in the nation.

Oregon’s defensive strengths can neutralize Auburn’s offensive strengths:

Auburn led the country in yards per passing attempt with 10.5, but Oregon ranked fifth in the nation in fewest yards per attempt allowed.

Auburn’s offense ranked third in the nation with a conversion rate of 53.1 percent, but Oregon held opponents to a 33.5 percent rate, the best in the Pac 10.

2. Oregon'S Offense Is Unstoppable

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EUGENE, OR - OCTOBER 2: Running back LaMichael James #21 of the Oregon Ducks heads for the end zone and a touchdown in the fourth quarter of the game against the Stanford Cardinal at Autzen Stadium on October 2, 2010 in Eugene, Oregon. (Photo by Steve Dyk

You might have heard some things about how prolific and inventive Chip Kelly’s offense is.  For those of you who took the year off from following college football, the Ducks lead the nation in scoring (49.3 ppg) and total offense (537.5 ypg).

The Ducks have scored 37 points in 11 of 12 games, and have scored at least 48 points in eight games.

Only one team—California—has been able keep the Ducks in check.  But rather than providing a blueprint on how to stop the Ducks, that game proved to be a one-game aberration.  Oregon responded by putting up 48 points against Arizona and then 37 against Oregon State.

1. Team Concept vs. Individual Superstar

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EUGENE, OR - NOVEMBER 26: Head Coach Chip Kelly of the Oregon Ducks walks the sidelines against the Arizona Wildcats on November 26, 2010 at the Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Oregon. (Photo by Jonathan Ferrey/Getty Images)

You can argue that the two biggest stories in college football have been evolutionary innovations:

At Oregon, Chip Kelly invented an offense on adderall that has shown no signs of being slowed down.

At Auburn, God—or other someone or something else, depending on your beliefs—invented Cam Newton, a 6'6", 250 pound quarterback (!) who also shows no signs of being slowed down.

But as any coach will say, football is a team game and a great team will always beat a great player.  The Ducks—and the idea of a team concept—will prevail tonight.