Chip Kelly: Why His Oregon Ducks Are a Lock for 2011 BCS Championship
Most predictions favoring Auburn revolve around the deification of Cam Newton and smug assumptions about the superiority of the SEC.
Don’t believe them. Chip Kelly’s fast-paced offense has been the story of the season and by the end of the night, his Oregon Ducks will be the team of the season.
Oregon’s offense is historically dangerous, and its excellent defense more than holds its end of the bargain.
That’s too much for an Auburn team with too many vulnerabilities to overcome. Even one with Cam Newtown that went undefeated in the SEC.
Here are 10 reasons why Chip Kelly’s Oregon Ducks are a lock for the 2011 BCS Championship.
10. When Auburn Punts, Good Things Will Happen for Oregon
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For a team that survived the brutal gauntlet of the SEC, Auburn has some pronounced weaknesses. One of these is its punting game: the Tigers ranked last in the SEC and 91st in the nation in net punting.
The Tigers will be punting to an Oregon team that led the nation in punt returns with an 18.2-yard average. And they’ll be punting to a player, All-American returner Cliff Harris, who took four punts to the house and might be the most electrifying player in the game not named Newton.
9. Auburn Starts Slow. Oregon Finishes Fast
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The Tigers have scrapped from behind all season against opponents like Clemson, South Carolina, Georgia and Alabama.
That speaks volumes for the Tigers’ character, but poorly of their chances in this one. Good luck coming back against the Ducks, who have outscored opponents 277 to 77 in the second half and 115 to 24 in the fourth quarter.
8. Casey Matthews Will Shadow Cam Newton
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Matthews—whose older brother, Clay, wrought havoc on Michael Vick yesterday—has the athleticism and instincts to contain Newton.
The middle linebacker with the deep football pedigree was a first team All-Pac 10 selection. He has 73 tackles, three sacks, three interceptions and three fumble recoveries this year.
What’s more, his own mother told him that he had to play “slightly insane” tonight. Insane is great, but it works better when complimented by a healthy dose of discipline.
7. LaMichael James Is Too Good for Even Auburn's Run Defense
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Auburn’s run defense is excellent, ranking 11th in the nation in rushing yards allowed.
That’s all well and good, but it’s not good enough to stop LaMichael James and the Ducks' rushing attack. Running behind an athletic offensive line, the electrifying James led the nation with 152.9 yards per game.
The line and James are perfect compliments to each other: the linemen block well in space, and James is quick to recognize holes and accelerate through them.
Kenjon Barner, James’s backup, was excellent as well, amassing 519 yards on just 80 carries for a 6.5 yards per carry average on the season.
6. Cliff Harris Is a Shutdown Corner
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Oregon has an antidote for No. 1 Auburn receiver Darvin Adams, whose 909 yards were 324 more than Auburn’s second best receiver.
His name is Cliff Harris and he’s a second team All-American cornerback who made five interceptions this year. Harris’s 20 passes defended and 15 pass breakups were top in the nation.
He also showed a knack for rising to higher levels of competition when he picked off Stanford’s Andrew Luck twice.
On the other side, Talmadge Jackson isn’t a flashy player, but he’s talented enough to receive All-Pac 10 honors.
5. Turnover Margin
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Oregon ranked third in the nation in turnovers forced with 35 and their plus-13 margin compares favorably to Auburn’s plus-5.
Oregon has twice as many interceptions as Auburn at 20 to 10. Cornerback Cliff Harris and safety John Boyett have five picks apiece, as many as the entire Auburn team.
4. Auburn's Secondary Can Be Gotten To
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Auburn’s biggest weakness is its pass defense, which ranked 105th in the nation.
That’s a staggering vulnerability for a team with championship aspirations.
Meanwhile, while Oregon is known primarily for its running game, its passing game is nothing to sneeze at. Darron Thomas is the economy-sized version of Cam Newton. Thomas’s stats aren’t quite as eye-popping as Newton’s, but they’re nearly identical in terms of TD to INT ratio (28: 7 for Thomas, 28:6 for Newton) and yards per carry (5.7 for Thomas, 5.8 for Newton).
Sure, Thomas’s average of 7.8 yards per attempt is significantly lower than Newton’s 9.8, and Newton is much more prolific on the ground (492 yards for Thomas, 1,409 for Newton).
But this statistical difference doesn’t quite justify why one of these quarterbacks is considered a mere system player while the other is considered the Greatest Thing Since Sliced Bread.
3. Oregons Defense Is Wildly Underrated
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Chip Kelly’s offense gets all the plaudits, but Nick Alioti’s defense ain’t half bad itself.
Oregon’s defense ranked 14th in points per game with 18.4, compared to Auburn’s 53rd ranked 24.5 points allowed. Despite usually playing to protect second half leads, the Ducks still ranked 25th in total yards allowed.
The Ducks also generated 35 turnovers, third most in the nation.
Oregon’s defensive strengths can neutralize Auburn’s offensive strengths:
Auburn led the country in yards per passing attempt with 10.5, but Oregon ranked fifth in the nation in fewest yards per attempt allowed.
Auburn’s offense ranked third in the nation with a conversion rate of 53.1 percent, but Oregon held opponents to a 33.5 percent rate, the best in the Pac 10.
2. Oregon'S Offense Is Unstoppable
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You might have heard some things about how prolific and inventive Chip Kelly’s offense is. For those of you who took the year off from following college football, the Ducks lead the nation in scoring (49.3 ppg) and total offense (537.5 ypg).
The Ducks have scored 37 points in 11 of 12 games, and have scored at least 48 points in eight games.
Only one team—California—has been able keep the Ducks in check. But rather than providing a blueprint on how to stop the Ducks, that game proved to be a one-game aberration. Oregon responded by putting up 48 points against Arizona and then 37 against Oregon State.
1. Team Concept vs. Individual Superstar
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You can argue that the two biggest stories in college football have been evolutionary innovations:
At Oregon, Chip Kelly invented an offense on adderall that has shown no signs of being slowed down.
At Auburn, God—or other someone or something else, depending on your beliefs—invented Cam Newton, a 6'6", 250 pound quarterback (!) who also shows no signs of being slowed down.
But as any coach will say, football is a team game and a great team will always beat a great player. The Ducks—and the idea of a team concept—will prevail tonight.
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