Dallas Mavericks: Dirk Nowitzki's Return and Road Trip Ahead
The American Airlines Center erupted in cheers with slightly over twenty thousand Mavericks fans having just witnessed a truly spectacular playoff performance from their star forward Dirk Nowitzki. The night was Game 2 of the 2006 NBA Finals and Dirk had scored 26 points and pulled down 16 rebounds. The Mavericks were up 2-0 and had won each game against the Heat by double figures. What followed was four straight Miami Heat victories, a 67 win but upsetting first round exit season the following year, then two more seasons of disappointing runs in the playoffs. The Heat, on the other hand, after a few rough years decided to add some nice role players like LeBron James and Chris Bosh to replace the likes of Shaquille O'Neal and Antoine Walker. As the Heat appear ready to create a lasting dynasty, the Dirk era in Dallas remains under review.
Some people call him a choke, some people say he will never win the big one, but I see Dirk as what he is, one of the most dynamic players to ever play the game, a former MVP who could very well win it again, and at the end of the day the man is averaging 24.1 ppg, shooting 54% from the field and 40.3% from behind the arch leading what I think may be the best Mavericks team of his career. With Dirk's return to the lineup most likely taking place during their difficult upcoming road trip paired with the devastating injury to Caron Butler, we are about to learn a lot about the Mavericks in these tough games ahead.
Tonight: Orlando Magic
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The obscure NBA Finals pick.
I see a lot of similarities to the way the Magic and Mavericks are built. Both have their 1st Team NBA type of star with Dirk and Dwight Howard, and both have surrounded him with similar pieces. Jameer Nelson and Jason Kidd both play the point guard efficiently, Caron Butler and Jason Richardson both are scoring threats at the shooting guard, Gilbert Arenas and Jason Terry are dangerous sixth men options.
Tonight we'll find out how Tyson Chandler and Brendan Haywood stack up against the most dominant Center in the league. Can the Dallas bigs take Dwight Howard out of the game and even out-rebound the lack of depth Orlando bigs?
We'll also see if the Mavericks need to try and bring in another shooting guard to fill in for Butler. The Magic with Arenas, Richardson, and JJ Redick could expose the Mavericks or Dallas could find that between Jason Terry, DeShawn Stevenson, and the eventual return of Rodrigue Beaubois they might not have to go out and trade after all. They can also see how former Marquette guard Dominique Jones handles some extra minutes.
If the Magic expose a weakness at shooting guard, the Mavericks are in trouble. They can't trade their bigs, it'd be nuts to trade Jason Kidd, and Shawn Marion needs to be there to play small forward. The Butler injury hurts this team, but tonight's game against a loaded Magic backcourt will give us a gauge for just how pivotal the loss is.
Jan. 12: at Indiana Pacers
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The Pacers are a pesky team. At 14-19 they are by no means a big time playoff test, but they've proven they can beat NBA elite and nearly knocked off the San Antonio Spurs last night. I'm interested to see Jason Kidd versus Darren Collison, seeing how Kidd keeps up with one of the fastest point guards in the league.
How will Dallas respond if Dirk is still injured and they find themselves in the middle of one of those streaky near 100% field goal quarters from the Pacers? This is one of those games that could be close down the stretch, especially if Dirk is out, and I want to know who takes charge for the Mavericks. Come playoff time, teams will gameplan their defenses around Dirk and someone else will have to hit big shots down the stretch. Will it be Jason Terry? Marion? How will Chandler handle Roy Hibbert? Will Indiana be able to out-rebound Dallas the way they out-rebounded San Antonio?
Jan 14: at San Antonio
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As of now, this is the Western Conference Finals. In theory the Lakers will pull things together come playoffs time, but there is a very high chance that these two teams will be the #1 and #2 seed headed for a Western Conference collision course.
The first time they played this year Dallas snapped a 12 game Spurs winning streak. In that game Manu Ginobli went off for 31 points, but Tony Parker was held to 9 and Richard Jefferson only had 2 points. Their most recent meeting, the Spurs won by 6 points in Dallas, but Dirk was inactive.
Interesting note from their last meeting was Caron Butler going for 30 points. Butler was the guy that took charge in Dirk's absence. They'll need production at the shooting guard from someone else.
Keep this in mind when watching the game, watch Richard Jefferson and see if the Mavericks continue to shut him down. If the Mavericks continue to shut down Richard Jefferson and can somewhat contain Manu, then I like the Mavs chances this playoffs to avenge last year's playoff series.
Jan. 15: at Memphis Grizzlies
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Keep an eye on the Memphis Grizzlies. They are on a three game winning streak with wins against the Lakers (in L.A.) the Jazz and the Thunder. They have a tough test tonight on the road against the Thunder but should win their following two games at Detroit and at Charlotte. Then the Mavericks come to town. If the Grizzlies come into that game winners of six in a row or even five of their last six, I see the potential for an excited crowd and an inspired performance against Dallas.
Zach Randolph is tearing apart teams frontcourts, will Dallas have an answer?
This is the type of (1) vs (8) matchup that could occur in the playoffs. The Grizzlies have a lot of young talent and potential and while I don't think this could be a Golden State Warriors upset type of matchup, I think the Grizzlies could surprise Dallas to a challenging six game series. We'll see how they matchup tonight.
Jan 17: at Detroit
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This is actually an important game. Hear me out.
If you want to be a serious contender, you can not afford to lose these types of games. The Mavericks will need every win they can get to try and surpass the Spurs and Celtics for home court advantage throughout the playoffs. A loss at Detroit to a Pistons team that may by that point no longer even have Richard Hamilton is the type of game you have to win. It doesn't have to be pretty, but a loss here and the Mavericks will pay for it when they have to go on the road for a game 7 months from now.
Jan. 19: Los Angeles Lakers
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This is the final exam.
There is not better way to see how you stack up and what your legitimate playoff hopes can be until you see how you play against Kobe's Lakers. L.A. has now won three in a row and seems to be figuring out some of the problems that haunted them the previous three games. From now until the time they play the Mavericks, the Lakers schedule looks like this:
vs. New York, vs. Cleveland, @Golden State, vs. New Jersey, @LA Clippers, vs. Oklahoma City
I see no reason the Lakers do not go 6-0 through that stretch and take a 9 game winning streak into Dallas. The Lakers would be 32-11 and I project the Mavericks will be 30-10 when they meet. This will be a battle for that 2 seed positioning.
Dallas's shooting guard weakness? What better way to see how they handle the Butler absence then against the best shooting guard in the game.
Dirk or Pau? Dirk needs to inconvenience the Lakers rather than Pau Gasol inconveniencing Dirk. It has to become such a matchup nightmare to have Pau on Dirk that Phil goes with lineups of Lamar Odom guarding Dirk and Pau Gasol at Center. This allows Chandler to body up with Gasol which I think Chandler could do a good job at. With Marion occupying Artest and Kobe guarding some mix of Stevenson/Terry, the Mavericks need to keep Bynum and Gasol tandem off the court as long as possible.
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