Philadelphia Eagles vs. Green Bay Packers: Eagles Offense Will Send 'Em Packing

Here we are.  It’s Day 3 of my first-round NFL playoff predictions.  Today we have a very interesting matchup.  A blue-collar team from the Midwest taking on a team that while talented to begin with is truly a Cinderella story.  This is the Wild Card matchup between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Green Bay Packers!

Record

Right here, we have a very close comparison.  Both teams finished the season with identical 10-6 records.  The only major difference between the two is that the Eagles managed to win the NFC Eastern Division title, standing tall in a division full of underachievers.  The Packers, despite their record, managed only a wild-card berth as the Chicago Bears took the NFC North.

Since both teams finished with the same record, let’s analyze their wins, starting with the Eagles.  Of their 10 wins, eight came against teams that didn’t make the playoffs.  Still, we cannot ignore that the two wins against playoff teams were ones that are considerably better than the Eagles, at least on paper.  In Week 6, the Eagles defeated the top-seeded Atlanta Falcons 31-17, and that was without Michael Vick!

Two weeks later, in Week 8, they beat the offensive powerhouse Indianapolis Colts by a closer margin, 26-24, this time with Vick.  Still, a win is a win and these two major upsets cannot be ignored.

Now let’s take a look at the Packers’ wins.  Seven of the 10 wins came against non-playoff teams.  Of the three wins against playoff teams, I want to take a look at one of them.  It occurred in Week 1, and the Green Bay Packers actually defeated the Philadelphia Eagles 27-20!

Despite the fact that they lost that game, I need to give the Eagles the benefit of the doubt in this case.  It was the first game of the season, then-starter Kevin Kolb was hurt and the quarterback duties were entrusted to Vick, who basically hadn’t thrown a pass in years.  Plus, the Packers had consecutive overtime losses to the Washington Redskins and Miami Dolphins, plus a 7-3 loss to the Detroit Lions.

With their gritty style of play and young talent, along with the two upset victories over top teams, I have to give the Eagles the upper hand in this case.

Edge: Eagles

Quarterback

Once again, this is a very interesting matchup.  We have a great leader on Green Bay’s end in Aaron Rodgers, and a man out for redemption in Philadelphia’s Michael Vick.  Let’s take a look at their stats

By the numbers, both quarterbacks have had MVP-caliber seasons.  Rodgers, despite missing one game with a concussion, finished the season with an impeccable passer rating of 101.2, with 28 touchdown passes and 3,922 passing yards.  His completion percentage is even more unbelievable at 65.7, a career high for him in full seasons.  Not only does this man have a cannon for an arm, but he is also extremely accurate.  Last I checked, that type of quarterback is pretty hard to find!

Now let’s take a look at Vick’s stats.  His passer rating is not that far off from that of Rodgers, at 100.2 (which also happens to be his career high).  He threw for 3,018 yards and 21 touchdown passes, numbers that probably would have been on par with Rodgers’s had he not missed four games with rib and quadriceps injuries.

What makes Vick even more dangerous is his ability to run.  On top of his passing statistics, he ran for 676 yards and nine touchdowns!  If he hadn’t missed any games, I’m positive he would have run for 1,000 yards, maybe more.

Still, these two have factors working against them going into the game.  As good as Rodgers is, his protection leaves something to be desired as he was sacked 31 times.  On Vick’s end, he was sacked 34 times and he’s going up against the fifth-best defense in the NFL (although only 18th in rush defense), not to mention the team that was second in the NFL in sacks, with 47.

Either way, it’s going to be a close game and extremely fun to watch.

Edge: Even

Running Game

Now, normally I’d say that the Packers have the automatic advantage in this department, but extenuating circumstances occurring in Week 1 have forced me to take a closer look at this.  In the first game of the season against Philadelphia, the Packers lost first-string running back Ryan Grant for the season, due to an ankle injury.  For the remainder of the season, Brandon Jackson stepped in.

To put it bluntly, over the course of the season, Jackson showed why he’s Ryan Grant’s backup.  In 16 games, he only ran for 703 yards and three touchdowns.  He didn’t even average four yards per carry.  I know that some of this can be chalked up to the holes in the Green Bay offensive line, but that doesn’t take away from the fact that the Packers still finished 24th in rushing offense, down from last season when they finished 14th.

Philadelphia’s running game, on the other hand, is a completely different story.  It finished fifth in the NFL, thanks much in part to the re-emergence of Vick.  Besides Vick, though, they have a great power back in LeSean McCoy.  In 15 games, McCoy only ran for 1,080 yards.  Still, he had seven touchdowns and averaged a little over five yards per carry. 

Along with his rushing statistics, he also had 78 receptions for 592 yards and two touchdowns.  Combine his bulldozer-like approach to running the ball with the finesse of Vick, and the Eagles should be fine against the NFL’s 18th-ranked rushing defense.

Edge: Eagles

Passing Offense

Now, given how the two quarterbacks are so close in comparison, I figured that comparing the receiving corps for both teams would prove even harder to analyze.  Turns out, I was wrong.  Let’s start with Green Bay.

The Green Bay receivers are headlined by first-time Pro Bowler Greg Jennings, who finished the season with 76 receptions, 1,265 yards and an amazing 12 touchdowns.  Respectable numbers, but what about the other receivers he has backing him up? 

In the No. 2 receiver slot, we have Donald Driver.  Now, let me start off by saying that I have a ton of respect for this man.  He’s a great presence on the team and in the community, truly a fine gentleman.  Yet, he is also 35 and his age finally showed this season.  He had 51 receptions, but only 565 yards and four touchdowns.  The speed and hands he had exhibited the previous number of seasons just seemed to vanish.

In terms of possession men, Green Bay has a fine young man in Jordy Nelson, but he is still learning and defenders will most definitely be all over him.  Yet, what will hurt the Packers the most is the absence of tight end Jermichael Finley, who suffered a knee injury in October and was placed on injured reserve.  Like I said about the Chiefs and Dwayne Bowe yesterday, the Packers cannot rely solely on Jennings to make the big catches.

Philadelphia, on the other hand, has many options at receiver.  DeSean Jackson is not only a deep threat, but he’s also dangerous on a reverse as well as returning punts.  In the No. 2 slot, they have another deep threat in second-year player Jeremy Maclin.  He set new career highs this season with 70 receptions (up from last year’s 56), 964 yards (up from 773) and 10 touchdowns (up from four). 

The Eagles also have a solid possession receiver in Jason Avant who while he won’t be a factor in the end zone, knows how to get open, as his 573 receiving yards indicate.  Brent Celek has also matured into a valuable tight end that with his long receptions brings back memories of Shannon Sharpe.  The man simply blocks like a tight end and moves like a receiver. 

I don’t know about you, but I think that even Green Bay’s sixth-ranked receiving defense will have a hard time with this squad.

Edge: Eagles

Defense

On paper, this looks like an open and shut case.  The Green Bay defense was fifth in the NFL, while Philadelphia’s was 12th.  Still, based on all of the factors I previously mentioned, I don’t know if it’s that easy to immediately give this to Green Bay.

The Packers defensive line is anchored by second-year nose tackle BJ Raji, who had a pretty decent season.  He only had 39 tackles, but finished the season with 6.5 sacks.  Long story short, he’s a pass rusher with a great future and Michael Vick will have a hard time evading him.

Yet, what makes this team’s defense dangerous is the linebacking corps, led by AJ Hawk and Clay Matthews.  Hawk was the coverage linebacker for most of the season and finished the season with 111 tackles while Matthews was more of the pass rusher, finishing with 13.5 sacks. 

Still not convinced that these guys are the real deal?  OK…maybe this will convince you.  I never thought I’d admit this, but I’ve had nightmares about being chased by AJ Hawk and Clay Matthews.  These guys deliver bone-crushing hits and I think anyone would be a fool to underestimate them, namely the Philadelphia offense.

In the secondary, we have reigning Defensive Player of the Year Charles Woodson who this season, at age 34, set a new career high in tackles with 92!  At safety, Nick Collins has been a pest all season.  He only had 70 tackles, but also picked off four passes.  Look for him and Woodson to give Jackson and Maclin a hard time.

That isn’t to say that Philadelphia’s defense is one to immediately write off.  Their front defensive line, led by defensive ends Trent Cole and Juqua Parker, accounted for 20 of the team’s 39 total sacks!

Ernie Sims is the leader of a linebacking corps that is underwhelming, as the team only finished 15th in rush defense.  Yet, this is more than made up for in their secondary.  Cornerbacks Asante Samuel and Dimitri Patterson gave receivers a hard time week after week, combining for a total of 11 interceptions, and safety Quintin Mikell delivered devastating hits for a total of 88 tackles to go with three picks.  That being said, don’t underestimate this Philadelphia defensive squad!

Yet, just because of their depth at linebacker, we can’t overlook the Packers either.  As good as their receivers are, the Eagles are primarily a running team and are sure to have a hard time evading both Hawk and Matthews.

Edge: Packers

So, after analyzing possibly our closest matchup of the week, let’s get to that prediction, shall we?

Score Prediction: Eagles 34, Packers 31, in a squeaker