Will Tiger Woods Tie Jack Nicklaus' Major Record in 2011?

To get to 18 major championships in 2011, Tiger Woods will need a lot of help from venues and some gifts from the field.  Help, as in the kind from saints—and not the ones in New Orleans—and gifts in the form of other players letting Woods take charge again.

There are certain Tiger-friendly venues, places where Woods won repeatedly. Like Bay Hill.  Or Cog Hill.  (It may be that the course name just has to have hill in it.) But there are few Tiger-friendly locations for majors this year.  

Woods may have ruined his best chance to get to 18 easily by missing out on the 2010 season, which included three of his four favorite courses: Augusta National, Pebble Beach and St. Andrews.

That doesn’t mean he won’t eventually make it to 18, but he has made it a lot harder.  Instead of an easy lay-up, if there is such a thing in tournament golf, it’s now over the roof, over the garage, one bounce off the mailbox and into the basket kind of chance. 

The real problem, in predicting when Woods will get to 18, is we don’t know when the real Tiger will come out to play.  The one who used to stomp on the necks of the competition by chipping in unexpectedly to take the lead.  Then kick them a couple times in the ribs with some 20 and 30-footers for a birdie or an eagle. That’s the guy who was AWOL last season.  It made for an interesting year, but there are a lot of people who just want their old Tiger back.

One place that qualified as Tiger-friendly in the past was Augusta National.  But it hasn’t been so nice lately. Someone recently pointed out that Woods, despite having four green jackets, has not won there since the last lengthening was completed in 2006. His last victory at the Masters was in 2005. That’s six years ago this April. 

History tells us a couple things about Woods’ chances at Augusta. He’s a lock for a top 10.  A probable lock for a top five.

But unless we see Woods thumping the competition somewhere in advance of the azaleas blooming at the 13th hole, it’s tough to make the case for him driving out Magnolia Lane with a fifth green coat lying on the seat of the car. The course has become less a scoring fest, less fun on Sunday.

I would add The Players here, but I’m in the minority, and I understand that.  I count it because everybody who’s anybody shows up. It has THE toughest field.  It’s played on one of the toughest courses on the planet, made harder now by being played on Bermuda. The purse is the biggest all year, which amps up the choke factor. 

The course is brutal in requiring nearly perfect shots start to finish. You can’t just bunt it out there and win, but you can win with a few miracles in your round. And the finish is the most exciting in golf. It has everything but a windmill and a chainsaw. If you’ve ever played it, you know just what I mean. 

Banners of all past champions are hanging from the lamp posts.  You pass PGA Tour HQ on the way in.  And on the hill overlooking the practice facility, there’s a new 77,000-square-foot clubhouse. Jack Nicklaus won the tournament three times, the most of anyone.  And he won on different courses, before the TPC Sawgrass Stadium Course was built.

Woods won once and had a close call in a loss to Hal Sutton, one of few to beat Woods for an important title. It’s the most important tournament that he has won the fewest times.  One title. That says something about the level of competition when the field is strong.

The US Open this year is at Congressional GC. Last champion there was Ernie Els. Before that, Ken Venturi, who nearly died from heat stroke on the final day when 36 holes were played.  Congressional was also home to the Kemper Open for a number of years, and has hosted the AT&T National.

However, it is impossible to compare a PGA Tour set up to a US Open set up.  The three US Opens in Woods’ cabinet were all won at public courses. Coincidence?  Can he break the trend at Congressional and win at a private one in 2011?  

OK. The real Tiger Woods can win anywhere, but we are just uncertain where the real Tiger Woods is.  Anthony Kim might be a better pick at Congressional.   Fred Couples won his first tournament there in 1983, a seven-man playoff after a six-hour round.

If Fred qualified, would he have a chance?  Not likely, but if ever he had a chance at a US Open, it would be one where he has a Tour event victory. Ernie Els for his third US Open?  It could happen.

The British Open is played at Royal St. George’s, which has given us winners like Ben Curtis, Greg Norman, Sandy Lyle, Bill Rogers and Bobby Locke.  At least three of them are or were known for their killer short games: Norman, Curtis and Locke.

Norman also had distance on his side and was a great driver of the golf ball. Bobby Locke was a superb putter.  Ben Curtis will chip and putt anybody to death.  Woods in his prime—and we may have already seen it—would be an excellent candidate to win at Royal St. George’s. 

But Woods playing mediocre golf?  Not likely to win. If he straightens out his drives and his head, he has a chance for his fourth British Open title. His short game can be something to behold. Royal St. George’s plays 7,200-plus yards, which used to be long.

The PGA will be played at Atlantic Athletic Club. Woods was not much of a factor last time around in Atlanta. Phil Mickelson was, though.  But David Toms was the winner.

Atlanta Athletic Club is a Bermuda surface, and Woods won on Bermuda at Southern Hills and at Doral. Atlanta Athletic Club is what golfers call a “big” golf course, kind of sprawling and spread out.  It has holes running through valley-shaped corridors.  And fortunately since it will be in August, shade trees.

In 2001, they played what was at the time the longest par four in history, which was just over 500 yards.  The tee markers were removed because the tees were actually behind the 500-yard plate and the PGA didn’t want the golfers to really know how far it was. 

With the continuing explosion in technology, that hole would now be an easy two-shotter for most everyone in the field. How far will they back up the tees? It might once again be the longest par four in history.        

In the 2001 PGA, on the final hole,  Toms, who was one shot ahead of Mickelson, hit his drive into the rough and decided to play a lay up shot.  From there, he wedged to eight feet and made the putt for a par. Mickelson was in the center of the green, 30 feet from the pin, in two.  He needed a birdie to tie Toms and force a playoff.  When he didn’t get it, and when Toms made the pressure putt for par, Toms became the champion, and at that time, Mickelson was the best player not to have won a major.      

So sifting and sorting and knowing that the first tee ball of 2011 has not been hit, look for Woods to be short of 18 majors by the end of 2011. He will be lucky if he gets to 15 by the end of the season, just because this group of courses does not favor him as perfectly as those in 2010.   

Woods might get two victories in majors, with his very best chance being at August National. Four is extremely unlikely.  One, we almost expect.  A shutout would be a disaster.  The results will depend on how his game comes along and how determined the rest of the field is to win.

We know for certain that 2010 gave a lot of youngsters a look at victory, and they liked what they saw.  It will be hard to get them to back out of the way for anybody, even if his name is Tiger Woods.