Andrew Luck: 10 Reasons He Should Leave Stanford for the NFL
After tonight, Stanford’s Andrew Luck has a big decision to make:
Become the likely No. 1 pick in the 2011 NFL draft, or stay in school and work on his architectural engineering degree and terrorize the Pac-12?
This fan is praying he enters the draft, simply explaining, “The money was just too much.”
If he does make the leap to the NFL, he’ll have plenty of reasons why it’s a good idea, as explained in the next 10 slides.
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He's a Shoe-in For the No. 1 Pick
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Sure, this seems obvious. But if your stock can only go down, why not go now?
His father was an NFL QB in Houston with the Oilers. He’s smart, well-rounded and can handle the media. He doesn’t need two more seasons in college to mature and learn to handle success and fame. By all accounts, he’s ready.
There's little that could happen at Stanford in 2011 that would better his stature as a prospect.
Jim Harbaugh Will Be a Hot Commodity
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There’s no shortage of speculation about the future of Cardinal head coach Jim Harbaugh. The Michigan alum is widely slotted for the opening with that recently mediocrity-rich football program.
As Luck is mulling his options, that can’t help but be close to the top of the “con” list for coming back to school.
Breaking in a new coach wouldn’t be fun for a kid who owned the offense and played in the Orange Bowl the previous season.
Ask Sam Bradford What Happens When You Come Back
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Maybe Bradford is a bad example, as his NFL career has blossomed despite his college senior year, but he’s the recent poster child for the downside to coming back to school.
At the time, that shoulder-crunching blow by BYU’s Coleby Clawson opening weekend of the 2009 season looked as if it could have ended, or at least complicated, Bradford’s NFL sojourn.
There’s no reason the same couldn’t happen with Luck. Especially with a newly painted target on his back, calling out to every linebacker looking to make a name for himself by taking out college football’s top QB.
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The Broncos and Panthers Will Have New Coaches
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The Panthers and Broncos have the first two picks of the draft, and the Broncos already have a QB (insert snide comment here).
Nobody will deny those two teams were bad. But both will have new coaches next year, and it would offer Luck a chance to start his NFL career with a motivated guy who will have at least a few years before his head hits the proverbial chopping block.
On a side note: Turns out Josh McDaniel actually got another top pick out of his moves for Tebow. Genius, right?
He’ll Be Pulling a Seinfeld
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Let’s assume Luck wins the Orange Bowl against a Virginia Tech team from one of the three lousy BCS conferences (ACC, Big East, Big 10). A Tech team who lost a virtual home game to Boise State, whose reward was a trip to the Vegas Bowl. A Tech team who lost to an FCS team, for crying out loud.
Sorry for the rant, but the point is, they’re easily beatable.
With a win and subsequent affirmative draft decision, Luck would end his college career with an 11-1 season and BCS bowl win.
What better place to exit from than the top?
Another SEC Cheater Will Beat Him Out for the Heisman Next Year, Anyway
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Were Luck to stay in school, it’s likely he’d be in the Heisman race yet again. He could pile up 4,000 yards passing, win the Pac-12 and take another trip to the Big Apple for the ceremony.
But we all know he’d end up getting edged out by another paid-to-play athlete from the SEC. What a bummer that would be. Why even put yourself in that spot?
The Pattern Has Been Set by Sanchez, Ryan, Bradford, Etc.
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Used to be, back in the day three years ago, rookie QBs had to spend a season or two on the bench, then get beat around losing on bad teams before they could make any headway in the NFL.
But thanks to Matt Ryan, Mark Sanchez and the like, rookies have proven that the right prospect, in the right system and with the right coaching can succeed immediately in the League.
While Carolina isn’t on the verge of an NFC South title, in wouldn’t be a stretch to say Luck’s progression could evolve like Sam Bradford’s in St. Louis.
A New Rookie Pay-Structure Will Complicate Things
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This is a double-edged sword, but next year (if there’s no lockout) there will likely be a new rookie pay structure in place.
While that likely means less money than the insane amounts given to top-pick busts in years past, this coming season will be the time the wrinkles are worked out, and there may be more flexibility for picks in that draft.
On the other hand, it may take a season or two to for agents to find the loopholes.
NFL Playbooks Are Easier Than Architectural Engineering
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Luck is a smart kid. And smart kids like to learn. But he’s also a competitor, and regardless of your arena of competition, you want to play at the best and at the highest level.
No doubt Luck wants that. And that pull is likely stronger than his appetite for learning.
And there’s plenty to learn in the NFL.
But nothing as complicated as calculating wind-shear specs for a skyscraper.
His Pedigree Indicates He’s a Good Bet
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The Manning family comparisons have already begun with Luck. His father played in the NFL for a few seasons, and little Andrew has been reading defenses since he was 8.
Growing up around the game has proven to be a good variable indicator for NFL skills.
There are very few who think Luck has an Alex Smith/JaMarcus Russel/Ryan Leaf risk associated with him.
If I were Luck, I’d believe my own headlines.
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