Kobe Bryant and the 20-Shot Effect: Is It Really His Fault When the Lakers Lose?

There has been notice paid to the fact that the Lakers have a losing record this season when Kobe Bryant takes more than 20 shots. It's an easy thing to simply say that the reason the Lakers lose then is that Kobe is taking too many shots, but is it accurate?

I consider that there are three possible explanations to account for this. First, it is the effectual cause, i.e. when Kobe Bryant is taking too many shots, he's shooting them out of games. Second, it is incidental, meaning it is the opposite correlation. The Lakers are losing so Kobe is trying to shoot them back into games. The third possibility is that it's purely coincidental. The two events happen together, but there's no correlation. 

In order to determine which it is I viewed the game logs and shot charts of each of the 15 games in which he has shot over 20 shots.

If 15 or more shots were taken by Kobe before the fourth quarter and the Lakes were losing, I marked it with an "L" under "Factor," meaning that Kobe's shooting was a major factor in the loss. I chose 15 because that means he was on pace to shoot 20 through three quarters, and it is therefore not a factor of him trying to shoot them into the game.

I also marked it with an "L" if the Lakers were winning after three, and Kobe took eight or more fourth-quarter shots when the team lost.

For both of these criteria I considered his points per field goal attempt. The league average is 1.23, below Kobe's average of 1.28. If he was over 1.2, I determined that regardless of number of shots he took, the shooting did not have a negative impact on the game and marked it with an "I" for incidental. 

I also marked it with an "I" if the Lakers were trailing by more than five after three quarters and Kobe took more than one-third of his shots in the fourth quarter, regardless of the P/FGA as the shots were taken to get the Lakers back into the game. 

If the Lakers won, and his P/FGA was over 1.2 I marked it with a "W," and if not I marked it with a "C" for coincidental. If none of the above factors are true, I also marked a "C."

So there are four possible factors in case that all got confusing: W, L, I and C.  The findings are below.

Date	Op	Shots at end of 3Q	3Q Margin	Final Shots	Final Margin	FTM	P/FGA	Points	Factor
Oct 26	HOU	17	-5	20	+2	11	1.35	27	W
Nov 3	SAC	15	+10	22	+12	9	.1.36	30	W
Nov 9	MIN	16	+8	28	+5	7	1.18	33	C
Nov 11	DEN	23	-2	32	-16	9	1.06	34	L
Nov 14	PHO	13	-8	20	-5	2	1.25	25	I
Nov 16	MIL	19	+7	23	+9	9	1.35	31	W
Nov 17	DET	21	21	20	+13	8	1.65	33	W
Nov 19	MIN	24	+13	28	+17	6	1.17	33	C
Nov 26	UTH	17	-3	21	-6	8	1.48	31	I
Nov 28	IND	22*	-8	33*	-3	10	1.24	41	I
Nov 30	MEM	22	-5	25	-2	10	1.16	29	L
Dec 1	HOU	17	-2	24	-10	7	1.13	27	L
Dec 7	WAS	18	+3	23	+7	7	1.39	32	W
Dec 10	CHI	18	0	23	-4	4	1.00	23	L
Dec 28	SAS	21	-9	27	-15	2	0.78	21	L

*In the 11/28 game against Indiana Kobe was 4-for-11 from the field during the fourth quarter, and took no free throws. While according to the standards laid out it's incidental I thought I should note this as some might argue that Kobe was a factor in a loss. I wouldn't agree with that because when Kobe came back into the game in the fourth, the Lakers were down by seven. He closed the gap.

Over the course of the season Kobe has taken 20 or more shots 15 times. The Lakers are 7-8 in those games. In the games which they won, Kobe's shooting has been a positive factor five times. In the games which they lost his shooting has been a negative factor five times. 

What is more compelling than merely looking at the number of shots is looking at the effectiveness of his shooting. When he takes 20 or more shots and he averages better than 1.30 points per attempt the Lakers are 5-1. When he is below 1.25 points per attempt the Lakers are 1-8. The problem then isn't merely when he takes a lot of shots, it's when he misses a lot of shots.

In fact the Lakers are 13-3 when Kobe shoots more than .450 from the field and are 9-7 when he's shot under that. It's interesting when you look at the splits because Kobe actually scores more points in losses than in wins. He also has one more assist. However this comes on nearly six more shots in five more minutes of play. 

It seems to me that Kobe's issues are first, knowing when his shot isn't there, and second, involving his teammates when it's not. If he could turn even half of those missed shots into assists he would have turned half of their losses into wins. 

On the whole though, it seems that Kobe is taking more grief for this than he deserves. It's what happens when you have a shooter. Sometimes there are off nights and the general notion is that you shoot through those to find your shot. Kobe is aging though, and finding it may become harder than it used to be. He just needs to learn to adjust his game accordingly to keep helping the Lakers to win.