Chicago Bulls Trade Rumors: To Ignore or Not To Ignore, That Is the Question
The trade rumors concerning the Chicago Bulls shooting guard situation are everywhere. It seems every day a new name surfaces and for every rumor that's quieted, two more rise up to take their place.
These rumors run there gamut from probably true, to reasonable, to fictitious to outrageous.
Most of the time it's hard to find the asking price, and that makes it even more difficult to discern the viability.
In the following slide show I'll examine some of the names that have come up and address the asking price, validity and probability of the Bulls acquiring each player.
Richard Hamilton
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Sheer speculation has been behind the name of Richard Hamilton.
I have not found one credible source that actually suggests there have been any talks between the Bulls and the Pistons.
Hamilton's contract makes him difficult to obtain, and unlikely they would want to. The only way they would be likely to make the trade work is to send them Deng. There's no reason the Bulls would dig one hole to fill another, especially considering the age difference between the two. Hamilton's contract is even bigger than Deng's and it's not expiring.
Verdict: This rumor is nothing more than that.
Rudy Fernandez
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This summer's drama pretty much dropped Rudy Ferndandez' trade value through the floor. The Trailblazers insisted that he was still a part of their future, but his minutes continue to go down.
I doubt that's going to help much with his trade value. There was some speculation this summer that the Bulls were talking about acquiring him, but I haven't read any credible reports that they've resumed talks this winter. There's an outside chance they could go get him, but I doubt.
Verdict: I would put the chances on getting Fernandez at below 10 percent.
J.R. Smith
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For a while there were reports that J.R. Smith was the target of discussions from the Bulls but those reports are now being recanted by one of the original sources. It's hard to tell if there are some actual calls on this one or not. Adding to the mystique is that there wasn't much discussion of what the Nuggets would want in return for Smith. Without knowing the asking price, it's hard to measure the validity of the rumors.
Nothing in life is free though, and it's likely that the Nuggets would be wanting someone the Bulls wouldn't be eager to part with to obtain his services. In order to make the trade work salary wise it's almost a guarantee. Without knowing what the Nuggets would be asking for it's hard to ascertain the likelihood of the trade.
There are also question regarding the ability of J.R. Smith to fit into the team chemistry, and to play defense. There was another shooting guard who had a similar feud with George Karl, Ray Allen. Eventually, as it appears may happen with Smith, Allen was traded because those issues weren't resolved. However eventually they were resolved, under Tom Thibodeau in Boston.
There are too many unknown actual variables to say how likely this trade is but it could be potentially worthwhile. I believe that there have been sufficient news sources to give actual talks regarding Smith reasonable credibility.
Verdict: If the Nuggets aren't being greedy, the chances of a Smith trade happening are probably in the neighborhood of 20 percent.
Stephen Jackson
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The reports are that "the Bulls and Bobcats have discussed an eight player deal that would send Stephen Jackson to the Bulls and James Johnson and Taj Gibson as the key players heading to Charlotte. The Bulls want to keep Taj, but seem willing to pull the trigger if they can’t get OJ Mayo or JR Smith without giving up Taj."
The rumors all lead back to here, but the original post seems to have been modified.
The bottom line here is that with Noah out it's probably not a good time to be sending Taj anywhere. I've personally begun to think of Taj as "mini-Booz" and would hate to see him lost. However if you can swap a bench player for a starter you're doing well. Johnson hasn't been seeing enough playing time to factor much for the Bulls.
The other part of the problem is money. In order to make it work financially the Bulls would have to throw in Korver or Brewer. Le'ts say, hypothetically, that they would send Korver. Logistically then it becomes a matter of whether Jackson is worth the production of Korver and Gibson. In an eight player deal, it's likely that the answer would like in another player the Bulls would acquire, perhaps Kwame Brown.
If the Bulls could get someone to help fill in at a big man spot during the absence of Noah it would make the loss of Gibson a little more palatable.
Once Noah returns, a starting rotation of Rose, Jackson, Deng, Boozer and Noah would make them an elite team with a viable championship hope. Jackson is a solid defensive player, who shoots a spot up jumper better than any in the rumor mill. This would help to spread the floor and make Rose even more lethal than he already is.
The down side is Jackson's age. He's 32. That would limit his stint with the Bulls to pretty much just the duration of his contract. However, the Bulls would be able to replace him in free agency once it expires.
Verdict: I don't believe this trade is likely and estimate its chances at less than 30 percent.
O.J. Mayo
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The reports are that "the Bulls and Grizzlies had discussed a Mayo to Chicago deal, but the Grizzlies are asking for Taj Gibson, Omer Asik, James Johnson, and the Charlotte draft pick. The Bulls will not do that trade, but have considered doing a Gibson, Johnson, Bogans for Mayo deal, which Memphis wouldn’t do at this point."
We'll just kindly reference the Grizzlies asking price as laughable. I don't know if they're trying to compensate for the Pau Gasol trade or what, but for the Bulls to give up Gibson and Asik with Noah out is just not going to happen.
Even with Noah back it's hard to imagine. The Bulls would have to get more back than just Mayo.
Adding Mayo would give the Bulls a viable third scoring option. He would fit nicely into the defensive scheme, and if he's willing to commit to it, could improve the Bulls on both ends of the floor.
Also, since he is young he could be a fixture in the Bulls lineup for a long time. Surrendering draft choices wouldn't so bad because they wouldn't really have the time in the rotation to develop them anyway.
However, because the asking price is so high, I don't see this trade is likely to happen either.
Verdict: I also put this trade as below 30 percent.
Courtney Lee
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The Bulls have been scouting Courtney Lee, and it may make the most sense. His career average in 106 starts is a little shy of 12 ppg. The fortunate thing is that his salary matches with JJ's so it would be a pretty simple deal to do, with the Bulls sending JJ and a draft choice for Lee.
It wouldn't present as potent a lineup as some of the other scenarios that have been considered, but it does minimize the impact on the rotation and give the Bulls an upgrade at their starting shooting guard, With the Rockets looking towards a post-Yao era, the prospect of draft choices probably would sit well with them, either for themselves, or to package together with Yao's expiring contract in another trade.
Verdict: Even though this is the scenario seems the most likely to me as of right now, I would say it's opportunity of going through is no better than 40 percent.
(Having said that, I do believe the Bulls will deal for one of the players mentioned in this slide show, I'm just not positive which one).
