Fantasy Baseball Part One: Draft This, Not That

As this article started, the expectation was to review a first baseman and how you can draft the same stats later on. Looking into it more, it made more sense to compare outfielders and the like, considering the numbers and potential for impact. Sometimes you just do not know where a piece will take you until you realize that the point only makes sense presented in another way.

In this instance, we will take a look at three outfielders that you could draft, where you could draft them, and what you got from them in 2010.

Here is how this comparison stacks up:

Player A - 27 HR, 70 runs, 72 RBI, 2 SB, .284 AVG, 447 AB, 260 ADP

Player B - 23 HR, 71 runs, 82 RBI, 2 SB, .292 AVG, 517 AB, 60 ADP

Player C - 24 HR, 67 runs, 79 RBI, 5 SB, .258 AVG, 496 AB, 138 ADP

Given the choice, most would likely take Player A, who went undrafted in most formats last season yet produced at a solid level. This player likely retains eligibility at first base, outfield, and DH for many owners as they head into the 2011 season.

Player B had a decent year and even drove in a few more runs. That 10 RBI difference over the course of a full year is not even one a week, though.

Player C was drafted highly, but likely ranks at the bottom of the list of three even in this case. Player B is Andre Ethier while Player C is Alfonso Soriano. Who is the masked man? It is none other than Baltimore outfielder Luke Scott.

Scott has produced well in each of the last three seasons. Since 2008, he has hit 23 or more home runs each year while driving in 65 or more runs. In the last two years, he has had at least 25 home runs and 70 RBI.

Are these numbers going to carry your outfield? Not at all. These numbers are the type that help you build depth and garner attention in the later rounds. While others are scrounging to fill in their number three and four outfielders, knowing that a player like Scott is available will make the task for the savvy owner more manageable.

The argument against him is health. Scott has only played in more than 140 games once in the last four years. Certainly the same could be said for Soriano as well. His bat speed is not the same as what it used to be and the steals that once were a given are now fewer and farther between. Then there is his average. Scott has been roughly a .260 hitter that saw his average jump to .284 this past season. Scott’s BABIP was 20 points higher than it has been, but it came largely through more solid contact—what once were fly balls became line drives.

He is also 33 years old and likely more towards the down side than the upside of his power production, putting him on the opposite course of a guy like Ethier. These three negatives certainly show that Scott does not come without his red flags. That said, the risk at the draft slot is far less than it would be if an owner were relying on him to be a primary contributor to their team.

End of the day, owners would obviously rather own Ethier. He has greater potential for upside and will likely see numbers much better than what he put up in 2010. He was a 100-RBI guy in 2009, with 30 home runs. There is a reason he is drafted where he is. If healthy, he should see a return to that type of production. Ethier is a .285 AVG, 30 HR, and 100 RBI nearly waiting to happen, and still in the prime of his career.

The point is simply this: An owner could do much worse than Luke Scott. Keep him on your radar in the later rounds, and know you are getting 2010 Ethier or Soriano production as a result.