No Way, No How, No Chance: Matt Kenseth at New Hampshire

NASCAR’s Chase to the Sprint Cup field is set.  The pressure to get in the top 12 has passed.  If you’re in, the question is: Can you win it all?

And if your driver is going to have a chance at the Sprint Cup, he’s going to have to win some races.  Does this sound like a driver whose team is primed for victory?

"

“That’s one of worst races I probably could have driven, so it was very frustrating and very disappointing. I’m glad we’re in, in a way, but in another way, with the way we’re operating, I don’t think we’ll be a factor when we get there.” 

"

That was Roush-Fenway Racing driver Matt Kenseth, the last driver to win a non-Chase, Cup Championship and one of only two guys to have qualified for NASCAR’s Chase each of its four years.  Matt doesn’t like his chances at Loudon, and neither do I.  More from Matt…

"

“I don’t feel very good about next week and probably Martinsville.  Our short-track stuff hasn’t run like it used to for some reason.  We’re missing something with that combination, but our bigger-track stuff seems to be running OK.”

"

I had a feeling, way back in the beginning of the season, that Kenseth might struggle. Jack Roush’s promotion of Robby Reiser from Kenseth’s long-time crew chief to overall competition director of Roush-Fenway’s teams, seems to have helped everyone but Matt.  This quote from Greg Biffle may give a hint as to what is happening in the Roush camp.

"

“Thanks to Robbie Reiser. They made a commitment at the beginning of the year to shift some guys around. The teams that were gonna be in the chase and put the best teams together that we can, and that’s what they’ve done, and it made an unbelievable difference.”

"

Did Reiser take away from the No. 17 team to beef up the Carl Edwards No. 99 and Biffle’s No. 16?  Maybe and maybe not.  But whatever the case, Kenseth’s confidence is not where it needs to be to win.  He would be a good Chump pick in One Bad Wheel’s great Champs, Chumps and Sleepers game this week.  The new Chase portion of that game is ready to start and Darren has put up an extra $50 prize for each week’s top scorer.  Check it out and sign up to play.

New Hampshire Motor Speedway is different.  Martinsville on steroids is a popular description.  And it has not been kind to the Michael Waltrip Racing drivers.  David Reutimann, who had a strong run at Richmond International Raceway Sunday, has a Loop Data Driver Rating of 57.6 in three races at Loudon. 

His boss, Michael Waltrip, is only slightly better at 60.3 in five attempts.  As a reference, Tony Stewart leads all drivers with a Driver Rating of 118.6.

Dave Blaney, Robby Gordon and another Roushie, Jamie McMurray, all have Driver Ratings of 62.0 or lower.  Juan Pablo Montoya, on a track that I think favors him, comes in at 63.4 in three races.

But what about the other contenders?  Carl Edwards has run half as many laps in the top 15 as Jeff Gordon.  Gordon’s Driver Rating is a second best 108.7 while Edwards has the lowest of any Chase qualifier at 83.1.  Gordon’s Average Position during the races is 7.0 and Cousin Carl’s is 16.0. 

But the chemistry of Carl Edward and crew chief Bob Osborne, perhaps tweaked by Robby Reiser’s touch, makes me think that this race will produce a better result.

If you buy that, and if great chemistry is good, what do you make of the late race sparks that flew from Tony Stewart and his long-time partner Greg Zippadelli at Richmond?  I think Smoke may be a candidate for early exit from championship contention.