Ottawa Senators Believe Postseason Remains within Reach, but Numbers Don't Lie

Prior to Christmas the Ottawa Senators wrapped up a 2-1 win over the Nashville Predators, delivering a much-needed two points and extending the Sens streak of improved play.

Since December 10th, when I mentally restarted this season, and accepted that my team had to earn 70 points in 52 games, the Sens have gone 3-1-2 and have earned eight of 12 available points.

That’s definitely improvement, and is on target, but just.

The bad news is the wins were mostly against non-Eastern Conference teams, and many of those ahead of the Sens in the Eastern Conference standings continued to play well and bank points.

Last year required fewer than 90 points to make the postseason, but this year could prove to be the opposite, requiring more than the 95 point norm for postseason play.

The Sens may well have picked a terrible year to be challenging for an eighth-place finish.

But it is what it is.

Tonight the Sens will face the Pittsburgh Penguins, and they’re probably going to lose.  Look, I want them to win—I really, really want them to win—but nothing apart from pure homerism could make me expect anything but a good ‘ol ass whuppin' at the hands of one of the league's best teams, captained by the league's (hands-down) best player.

Who knows, maybe the Pens will be all fat on turkey and compliments and take a night off, but I doubt it.  The fact is, if it comes down to a team taking the night off, recent history indicates it will be the Sens…I’m just sayin’.

The Pens are now what the Sens were four years ago.  It may hurt to accept this reality, but it remains the reality nonetheless.

And if the Sens hope to make the postseason, they too have to recognize this new reality, and overcome it with improved efforts, getting wins the hard way, after years of doing it on skill alone.

So, should the Sens lose this game, they’ll be 3-2-2 in their last seven games, for a point percentage of 0.571—not good enough to make the post season.

If they win, they’ll be 4-1-2 in their last seven games, for a point percentage of 0.714—so far so good, and a little cushion to boot.

A tie will put them at 0.643, within striking distance of their goal.

If this team is going to make the postseason, they’ll have to do it by winning all of the games they’re supposed to win, and some games they’re not.  May as well start with a win tonight, right boys?

Here’s a breakdown of the final 46 games:

Games vs. teams currently above them in point percentage: 31.

Games vs. teams currently below them in point percentage: 15.

So as you can see, the Sens must win all of those 15 games vs. “weaker” opponents, and 16 games vs. those teams currently above them in the standings, for the required 62 points yet to be earned.

Sure, it could be done with a different mix, but that would be doing it the hard way, and I’m not planning for anything more than the path of least resistance.

Who among that group of 31 games are at least close to the Sens in the standings, and play in the East, making up the next class of “must-win” games?

CAR (2), ATL (2), FLA (2), NYR (2) = eight games/16 points.  Add to this they’re the all important “four-point” games, and they really are must wins.

Next are the western-based teams above, but near the Sens in point percentage: ANA (1), CLB (1) = two out of four pts.  Maybe not as big as the games vs. Eastern Conference teams, but still those with the highest likelihood for positive outcomes.

That leaves another 21 games that the Sens, in a perfect world, will have to earn at least 13 points from, for a point percentage of 0.310.

It is in those remaining 21 games, versus competition with significantly better point percentage, that the Sens face their greatest challenge.  Twenty-one games versus legitimate NHL postseason contenders—let's be honest, teams that, to date, the Sens can’t be expected to beat.

Teams that look at the Sens and think “two points."

And maybe, just maybe, this attitude can be the Sens secret weapon.  We all know good teams look past weaker teams and can be caught sleeping early.  If some of these teams are already postseason locks, and are not particularly interested in busting their asses down the stretch, the Sens can possibly steal some late-season “meaningless” points.

So what are the games might the Sens be able to steal?

Pittsburgh, March 15th, at Ottawa.

This game comes after the Pens face Edmonton at home, and is a one-off road game, before a late-season four-day mini break for the Pens.  It is entirely possible management will leave some key players behind for a little extended R & R, and those that do make the trip to Ottawa will already be in vacation mode.

Washington, March 25th, at Ottawa.

A game that falls in a weird spot in the WSH schedule.  Washington, prior to this game, will have played just one match (vs. PHI) in the previous six days, and the team will likely head home from nearby PHI to enjoy the two days off before flying in to Ottawa for the match against the Sens.  Add to this the fact that the Caps will play a back-to-back ,with Montreal, the team they lost to in last year's postseason, being the second game, it is highly possible the players and management will look past Ottawa.

Lastly, Philadelphia, April 5th, at Ottawa.

A game slap in the middle of a season-ending two games in six nights' light schedule for Philly.  Add to this the Flyers have a two-day break after this game, before a back-to-back to end the season, and you’re likely to have a team in “float” mode hoping to rest up before the postseason.

The other seven points from the top-of-the-pack teams will have to come from a combination of luck, effort and skill.

So there you have it, 46 games, 62 points and a postseason appearance.

Why not?