San Diego Chargers and the Playoffs: Better Lucky Than Good?

After two convincing blowouts in their last two games, the San Diego Chargers may look like the odds-on favorites to win the AFC West. 

This may be more wishful thinking than reality, though, as they are still one game back of the Kansas City Chiefs with two games to play. The Bolts claimed a 31-0 shutout against their Missouri rivals just one week ago. Then this past Thursday, the Chargers barely missed a second consecutive shutout when San Francisco scored a garbage-time TD with 4:26 remaining in the game. The final score was 34-7.

Even with these two impressive wins, the Chargers still have a mountain to climb before they can claim their fifth straight AFC West crown.

Not only do the Chargers have to win their final two games against Cincinnati and Denver, but Kansas City must also lose one of their last two games. San Diego must play its remaining games on the road in cities with outdoor stadiums in cold-weather climates, while KC plays their last two at home, where they are 6-0 this season. The Bolts are notorious for coming up short when having to play meaningful games in the bitter cold, even against inferior talent.

The last two games were not as impressive as the final scores indicated. KC was playing without starting QB Matt Cassel. His replacement, Brodie Croyle, is now 0-10 as an NFL starter. Say what you will about the game, but playing Croyle over Cassel made San Diego’s job a whole lot easier. With Cassel back from an appendectomy this past weekend, KC easily took care of the Rams in St. Louis.

Then there was the game against the 49ers.

To say the Chargers got lucky in this one would be an understatement. They got lucky five times over.

When Mike Singletary elected to take three points off the board after Antonio Garay was flagged for unsportsmanlike conduct for jumping on the backs of two 49ers in an attempt to block Jeff Reed’s 38-yard field goal, he had no idea that four plays later he would also have a touchdown taken away when Norv Turner’s challenge of an Alex Smith scramble into the end zone was upheld by the refs.

To the Charger’s credit, Brandon Siler stuffed the 49ers' attempt to score on a 4th-and-goal, and the Niners came away with nothing.

A few plays later, San Francisco DT Justin Smith was ejected from the game after pushing umpire Garth DeFelice. In San Francisco’s defense, the ejection was a steep penalty to pay for what appeared to be a minor infraction and a whole lot of luck for the Chargers.

San Diego received even more serendipity when cornerback Tarell Brown was flagged for a late hit out of bounds on Charger WR Kelley Washington. That was clearly a bad call and an extra 15 yards for the Bolts.

San Diego got their biggest break at the start of the second half when Ted Ginn’s 85-yard touchdown return of a Nate Kaeding kickoff was nullified when 49er fullback Moran Norris was called for a facemask penalty.

This is not to say that the Chargers didn’t play well, they did. They deserved the win.

Vincent Jackson had a great game, catching three TD passes. Mike Tolbert played with the kind of heart and determination that can lead to championships. But if you’re a fan of the Chargers like I am, you realize that the Bolts still have some glaring problems—problems that playoff teams can and will exploit.

The Chargers simply have no room for error any more. They will have to play perfectly the rest if the season and hope that Kansas City stumbles.