'08-'09 AFC Predictions: Every Team in Every Division

It's that time of year again. Girlfriends, wives, friends, video games, pets, and even personal hygiene, prepare to be neglected. The air has gotten a slight chill, wind has picked up, and next 20 or so Sundays have been put on hold. Football season is here. So without futher ado, here is how I feel the 2008-2009 season will break down, in record order by division. 

AFC West

San Diego Chargers 11-5

The name of the Chargers’ running back escapes me, but if I remember correctly, he’s fairly good. QB Philip Rivers will now have a full season with WR Chris Chambers; the two connected for 35 receptions, 555 yards, and 4 touchdowns in only 10 games together in ’07.

San Diego’s defense might be the best in the league, with the only concern being the ticking-time-bomb knee of stud linebacker Shawn Merriman.

The Chargers have a lot of wins built into their schedule, seeing as four games are against Kansas City and Oakland, and they play Miami, Buffalo, Oakland, and Atlanta this year. The Chargers will coast to their third straight AFC West title.

Denver Broncos 8-8

Can Jay Cutler really lead the Broncos to the Promised Land? We all know he has the arm of a Megaman (a moniker given by my radio show’s co-host Nate), but when will he actually become a passer rather than a thrower?

I do think he has what it takes, but I am not convinced this is the year we will see it.

I think that head coach Mike Shanahan is one of the best in the league, but it does seem like his time in Denver is wearing thin. Even though he has the ability to turn literally anybody into a 1000 yard rusher (watch out for Selvin Young this year), the lack of recent success has him on the hot seat, and things must be turned around this year for his sake.

The Broncos have a nice receiving core, headlined both on and off the field by Brandon Marshall, whose suspension was recently lowered from three games to one.

Even with the NFL’s best defensive player in CB Champ Bailey, the Broncos still seem to lack the overall firepower necessary to survive in the brutal AFC.

Oakland Raiders 6-10

Much like the Atlanta Falcons, the Raiders need to take baby steps and creep out of the basement of their division. It shouldn’t be too hard to do since Kansas City will hold down the back of the bus. The truth is, Oakland really needs to use this season to bolster their team to put them in position to make a move in 2009.

The best way to do this is to let QB JaMarcus Russell continue to develop on the field and let him work through the growing pains for a full season. I think Oakland made a mistake signing RB Justin Fargas to a long term deal knowing they had a good chance of landing Darren McFadden in April’s NFL draft.

They now have four running backs, two of whom have never had an NFL carry (McFadden and second year player Michael Bush), but know that McFadden is the long term answer and must get the bulk of playing time sooner rather than later. The Raiders also traded for cornerback DeAngelo Hall and added safety Gibril Wilson to solidify an already stellar passing defense. Watch for the Raiders to be exciting this year, and possibly even make some noise if Russell’s on field development happens quicker than expected.

Kansas City Chiefs 3-13

How is it possible for a team to have a 4-12 season one year and then actually get worse? One reason is the fact that Herm Edwards continues to be employed by the NFL in the same shocking fashion as Detroit’s Matt Millen.

A bad team to begin with, the Chiefs did little to improve during the offseason through free agency, and their main additions came from their league leading 12 draft picks. They did have a ton of holes to fill and drafting 12 players is a good start, but the biggest hole has to be their quarterback position.

Neither third year youngster Brodie Croyle or 31-year-old Damon Huard thrill me at all, and until the Chiefs get a quarterback that is actually capable of leading an NFL team to victories, they will continue to fall short of obtaining any.

AFC North

Pittsburgh Steelers 10-6

With an improved division last year, the Steelers needed every win they could get to hold off the surging Browns and still win the division. This year they should get the benefit of no surprise attacks by other division opponents and win the AFC North for the second straight year.

QB Ben Roethlisberger signed an eight-year contract this offseason and is ready to bounce back from a sub-par performance last season. WR Santonio Holmes is in his coveted third season and is ready to form an elite duo with veteran WR Hines Ward.

The Steelers had the best defense in the NFL last season, and not much has changed there. Expect some fair competition within the division that will test the Steelers again, but in the end they will come out on top.

Cincinnati Bengals 8-8

The Bengals are the third of my teams that I overrate every year (Eagles and Panthers), and I’ll do it again. It may not be “overrating” since 8-8 will not get them into the playoffs, but then again nothing short of upsetting the Steelers will.

Carson Palmer is a top-tier quarterback in my opinion, and if WR Chad Javon Ocho Cinco (if anything, you have to love his perseverance) can keep his shoulder healthy, he and WR T.J Houshmandzadah will be excellent targets for Palmer again.

There is too much uncertainty surrounding the wide receiving core as a whole, however, and the Bengals were forced to reach out to recently cut and perpetual troublemaker Chris Henry to fill a potential void.

They finally parted ways with RB Rudi Johnson, and now Chris Perry and Kenny Watson will be the duo in the backfield. I was back and forth on this team, having them as high as 10-6 and as low as 7-9, but therein lives the inherent problem with the Bengals: they are too inconsistent to ever count on.

Cleveland Browns 7-9

The Browns had everything go right for them last season, but it’s going to be tough for them to catch teams off guard two years in a row. My fear lies in the status and ability of QB Derek Anderson this year.

Brady Quinn was drafted in 2006 to eventually take over the helm for the Browns in the future, but the future was put on hold when Derek Anderson made the present a reality last season.

Anderson suffered a concussion during the preseason and Quinn looked solid for the second straight year in exhibition games. Any faltering on Anderson’s behalf, due to either health or ineffectiveness, will put pressure on the Browns to make the change.

The Browns addressed their defense somewhat during the offseason by drafting linebacker Beau Bell and adding tackles Corey Williams and Shaun Rogers, but it still won’t be enough to have two straight magical seasons.

Baltimore Ravens 7-9

This season could be a huge building block for the Ravens if things go as planned. On opening day, the Ravens will be starting two rookies at their main skill positions.

QB Joe Flacco was drafted in the middle of the first round after Baltimore traded up to get him, and in the next round the Ravens selected RB Ray Rice to initially be the backup for Willis McGahee. Due to multiple injuries within the Ravens’ organization, both of these rookies will get the nod on opening day and hopeful begin a tandem that will lead the Ravens for years to come.

On the other side of the ball, the Ravens greatly resemble the Bears, a consistently above average defense flirting dangerously with aging stars. Neither Kyle Boller nor Troy Smith is the quarterback of the future in Baltimore, and if Joe Flacco can just do enough to not lose the starting job, he will be on track to develop into a possible star in years to come.

AFC South

Indianapolis Colts 12-4

As much as I constantly try to knock the Colts and QB Peyton Manning for lack of success in the postseason (excluding 2006 when the defense carried them), the truth is that they win regular season games like nobody else.

With the health of Manning’s knee being called into question, I was very close to picking the Jaguars to finally take the crown from the Colts, but Manning’s knee is not a debilitating situation, and his play should not be greatly affected by it.

WR Marvin Harrison is completely healthy this year and has fully participated in the Colts’ preseason. Second year WR Anthony Gonzalez should thrive with Reggie Wayne and Harrison drawing most of the attention. Finally, and most importantly, the Colts’ defense has developed into one of their strengths.

I hate to sound like everyone else, but safety Bob Sanders is one of the best defensive players in the game, and the Colts’ success hinges on his effectiveness. In the end, the Colts will continue their regular season dominance and win their sixth straight AFC South title.

Jacksonville Jaguars 11-5

What a sexy pick the Jaguars have become this year. I even had them initially picked to win the AFC South before I did some more research.

There is no denying the explosiveness of RB Maurice Jones-Drew and the consistency of veteran RB Fred Taylor, but the AFC is a powerhouse this year, and for the Jaguars to separate themselves from the pack, they need to be flawless.

It seems like everyone is high on QB David Garrard this year and although I can see where people are getting excited (12 TD passes and over 1,300 yards in his last six games in ’07) these are the types of situations that usually produce disappointment.

I think Garrard will have a solid year (middle-tier QB), and because of their excellent defense and relatively weak schedule (home versus Buffalo, Houston, Cleveland, and at Detroit, at Houston, and at Denver) the Jaguars should have no problem getting the fifth seed and first wild card spot.

Tennessee Titans 9-7

Except for the crazy expectations of Jaguars QB David Garrard, Titans QB Vince Young is in a similar position where he is expected to take the next step in his career and lead his Titans deep into the playoffs.

Tennessee again failed to obtain a big time wide receiver for Vince Young to throw to, but did add veteran TE Alge Crumpler who should become Young’s main target. LenDale White might be the most overrated starting running back in the league, and rookie RB Chris Johnson is an explosion waiting to happen every time he touches the ball; if the Titans want to succeed, they should do this more often.

Tennessee is bringing back defensive end Jevon Kearse to solidify an already good defense, but although I expect the Titans to have a fine year, the AFC is just too good to allow a 9-7 team to win the Wild Card.

Houston Texans 7-9

2007 was a big step for the Texans, who posted their first non-losing season in their six year history. QB Matt Schaub made the Texans look great when they traded for him during the previous offseason, and he goes into this year as the clear cut starter poised to build on a successful ’07 campaign.

Unfortunately, much like Browns QB Derek Anderson, Schaub won’t have the ability to catch defenses off guard anymore. The biggest surprise this year will be the Texans’ defense.

DE Mario Williams had a breakout year in 2007, and with stud LB DeMeco Ryans and second year DT Amobi Okoye, the front seven will be set for the next few years. As the worst members of the AFC South, the Texans have the unfortunate situation of playing six games against three teams that all could make the playoffs.

Last year they went 1-5 in those games, and it was a major reason that 8-8 was all the Texans could accomplish. With not much changing this year, Houston would need to play out of their minds to pass their three division opponents.

AFC East

New England Patriots 13-3

Five out of the six playoff seeds are already decided for 2008, so the Patriots will focus their sights on a first round bye and most likely the NFL’s best record. QB Tom Brady has been “injured” throughout the preseason, but anyone that follows the injury report has seen Brady’s name since the dawn of time.

Unfortunately for the rest of the AFC, Brady is healthy and will continue to dominate defenses. There is really nothing to say about the Pats’ offense, since every year Brady leads them to 10+ wins even without a blue chip player.

Finally, when they added WR Randy Moss in 2007, the offense soared to unbelievable heights and an undefeated, record-breaking season. It is also incredible that the Patriots’ front office continues to make moves that put them in a position to win, such as finishing with the 31st overall pick in the 2008 NFL Draft, but still managing to have previously traded up to the 10th pick.

That is why even with losses on defense like cornerbacks Asante Samuel and Randall Gay and linebacker Rosevelt Colvin, the Patriots will continue to produce a winning product driven by Tom Brady’s vengeance filled 2008 season due to recent failures.

New York Jets 10-6 (possibly 16-0)

This is always the hardest team for me to pick each year, considering that I am a die-hard Jets fan. I do try to remain objective, though, and make fair predictions. In 2006, I did pick them to surprise everyone and make the playoffs based on Chad Pennington’s health, but in 2007, knowing they would have trouble repeating their success, I went hopeful and got burned.

This year was much trickier since they made a ton of offseason moves that appeared as if they were putting themselves in a position to win sooner rather than later. Additions like LG Alan Faneca and monster NT Kris Jenkins will bring some veteran leadership to their respective lines.

The Jets were ready to be an 8-8 team at that point, with them possibly winning or losing a few more games based on the play of their quarterback, whomever it would ultimately be.

On August 7, legendary QB Brett Favre was acquired by the Jets, and in the following days, officially named the team’s starting quarterback. This immediately made the Jets better, and although I love what Pennington has done for the organization that I support, the time had come to part ways with Chad and move forward with Favre.

Head coach Eric Mangini is in his third year with the Jets and has committed his team to mastering the 3-4 defense. He has built the defense around players like LB David Harris and made moves like trading LB Jonathan Vilma to the Saints largely because he didn’t fit in their 3-4 scheme.

After going 4-12 in 2007, the Jets have a somewhat favorable schedule, and if they can survive the first few weeks of the season, they should be able to grab the AFC’s last Wild Card Spot.

Buffalo Bills 8-8

As long as the Bills don’t give QB J.P. Losman the starting quarterback job over Trent Edwards, Buffalo should have a very good season and still manage to build for the future at the same time.

Second year running back Marshawn Lynch had an excellent rookie season, carrying the ball 280 times for 1,115 yards in only 13 games. To give Edwards a big endzone threat, the Bills drafted 6’ 5” WR James Hardy in the second round, and hope that he can have an immediate impact as a nice compliment to WR Lee Evans.

To upgrade an already improving defense, Buffalo drafted CB Leodis McKelvin in the first round, and added linebacker Kawika Mitchell via free agency. With all these young stars like Lynch, Edwards, Hardy, and LB Paul Posluszny, the Bills will continue to develop and should be the team to watch in 2009, if they don’t make their move this year.

Miami Dolphins 5-11

One play away from possibly ending the season 0-16, the Miami Dolphins head into 2008 with nowhere to go but up. They added QB Chad Pennington days after he was released by the Jets, and he will be the starter for as long as he stays healthy.

When Chad is 100 percent, he can be as efficient and effective as any other passer in the game, and will immediately make the Dolphins better. RB Ricky Williams is expected to be the starter, and VP of Football Operations Bill Parcels is confident that Williams will thrive, so much so that Parcels extended his contract through the 2009 season.

The Dolphins play in one of the hardest divisions in the NFL and are coming off an abysmal season, and the only way they don’t improve is if Chad Pennington gets hurt this year. The Dolphins will not improve.

Mario Mergola writes at The Digital Blitz.