Week Two Games in College Football That Are No Sure Thing

We are now a solid 16-8 against the spread and +12 1/2 units.  Thanks and congrats on the win and cover, Vandy.

I’ll start by saying that as I mentioned in my earlier posts, I was leaning Vandy money line as well, and while I did play that I’m not including it in my totals because I never confirmed it.  My win-loss statement this morning did confirm I had it though, and as always, I can live with that.

The reason the video didn’t post is the whole technology thing.  I did a video of me talking Vandy and South Carolina football (and you guys know how I am: I had plenty to say about me not believing I was actually talking Vandy football), but when I tried uploading the thing it got compressed into 13 seconds total and was just running super fast, so I just deleted it.

I ran out of time and had to leave, so I still felt confident enough that I had made a solid claim for a fairly easy Vandy cover and a possible outright win.  I mention a little about the game on today’s video.

I kind of feel similar about this week’s slate of games.  I’ve given out 20 picks for this week’s games (picks part 1, picks part 2, picks part 3), 21 if you include the LSU-Troy game that was postponed.

I know there are a few more games out there that I’m leaning one way or another on, and a few that are “no plays,” but I thought I would at least let you know what those games are and my reasoning for being on the fence.  Maybe you can convince me to get off the fence.

Texas Tech at Nevada (Saturday, Sep. 6, 9 EST)

Over/Under 67.5

This game just has too many questions for me to feel comfortable about.  The biggest question really is: Why isn’t this game on TV?

I found an awesome site that I’ve added to my links, and it’s right here as well, that has the TV schedule of every game every week.  It’s awesome.  I’m not sure who the guy is who puts this thing together, but I can say up front that this is someone who obviously has his or her priorities in order.

When I first saw this game on the schedule, the first thing that popped into my mind was “over.”  When the over/under opened up at 63, I was surprised it was so low, and I was ready to post it here and jump on it.

Just to feel extra good, I checked the trends and couldn’t believe them: The under is 6-2 in TTech’s last eight games and 10-3 in their last 13 against teams with winning records.  For the Wolfpack, the under is 6-1 in their last seven home games, 4-1 against teams with a winning record, and 8-2 following the last 10 straight up wins.

There is plenty more where that came from.  I’m just not willing to see if this is the week the trend gets snapped.  There are too many other places to go.

San Diego State at Notre Dame (Saturday, Sep. 6, 3:30 EST)

Line: Notre Dame -21 1/2

I just want to start by saying that I know Notre Dame has a gigantic fan base, and I will be picking Notre Dame games this season, but I am just not ready to do so yet.  I think the Irish will be improved from last year at least in the record department.  I’m not sure how much of that will come from talent and experience and how much will come from overall scheduling, but we should know soon enough.

On paper Notre Dame looks like they should really steamroll the Aztecs, who are coming off of a loss to Cal-Poly (huh?).  I follow a ridiculous amount of college football, and I can’t really tell you anything about Cal-Poly—that’s how far off the radar they are.

Last year when we left off in South Bend, the Irish didn’t look too good.  They were an improving bunch but still a 3-9 football team.  How much that year helped Charlie Weis’ bunch is still just a big question mark, and the Irish may be a mystery until at least next week, when they take on Michigan.  I promise I’ll have plenty to say regarding that one.

If you feel compelled to play this one, here are the unimpressive numbers.  The Aztecs are 6-1 against the spread following a straight up loss but are 4-9 against the spread in their last 13 road games, and an even worse 1-6 against the spread in their last seven non-conference games.

The Irish are 3-10 against the spread in their last 13 home games and 2-5 against the spread in their last seven home games when playing a team with a losing record.  After reading this, I hope you forgive me for not wanting to touch this one.

Miami (OH) at Michigan (Saturday, Sep. 6, 3:30 EST)

Line: Michigan -14 1/2

This game features two teams who lost outright as home favorites last week, and I’m not sure what to make of either of them.  I still think Miami competes in the MAC, and I still think that in the long run that the Wolverines and their fans will be very happy with the Rich Rodriguez hire.  I’m just not sure what to expect this week.

Both teams have trends that make this game even harder to figure.  The RedHawks haven’t covered the spread in their last five outings and have started slow the past few years, going just 2-5 against the spread in September.  For Michigan they’re 3-8 against the spread in their last 11 non-conference games, including 1-4 against teams from the MAC.  They are also just 2-5 against the spread following a straight-up loss.

Once again there are just a few other spots I like better at this point, though the line has been all over the place, so things may change.

Northwestern at Duke (Saturday, Sep. 6, 7 EST)

Line: Duke +6 1/2

I am glad this game came early this year, as it will be the last time I have to mention that I picked Northwestern last year when Duke ended their epic losing streak in Evanston.  I have learned my lesson, and I’m not touching this one.

While many feel Northwestern may actually be decent, I don’t think beating Syracuse gives me any confidence that is the case.  I think Duke is moving up with David Cutcliffe running the show, but I’m not confident enough to pick them, even getting points at home.

As expected, the trends regarding these two read like a bad novel.  Northwestern is 3-7 against the spread in their last 10 non conference games, 1-4 in their last five after covering the spread the previous week, and 7-20-1 against the spread following a straight-up win.

The Dukies are a solid 9-19 against the spread in their last 28 non-conference games, 1-5 against the spread in their last six overall, and 0-4 vs. the number when playing teams with a winning record.

There is plenty more ineptitude on both sides of the ball where this came from, but do we even want to acknowledge this game any more than we already have?

Miami at Florida (Saturday, Sep. 6, 8 EST)

Line: Florida -23

I am taking Miami, but not for any reasons I can advise others to in good conscience.  I am taking the Canes primarily on the money line (+1300) to win outright because it is really the only way I would be happy about the outcome.

Every week I write up my picks, game after game, and I try to be as objective as possible.  After all, it’s my money I’m playing with, and I know that a lot of people at least take into account my feelings regarding a game.  I cannot objectively look at this game because underneath all of the analysis and trends lies a die-hard college football fan, and I hope that comes through in my videos.

I am going to talk about this one on video and why I think the Canes actually have a slim chance, but like I said, if you want advice on this game you are going to have to go elsewhere.  I will say that even when the Canes were great they weren’t a good team against the number, as they often were laying just boatloads of points.  Florida has some nice trends working in their favor, but as always there are a few to be wary of.

There is a reason the spread is this big yet it still remains such a featured game.  College football is a game where anything can happen, and it’s matchups like this where it usually does.

There are a few other games I’m on the fence about but I’m actually leaning stronger one way than the other.  I may come back to talk about these later, or I may just leave them alone.

Either way, tomorrow morning I’ll be writing about some of the bigger line moves and how they either affect our current wagers and where we may want to press them up, or maybe take a stab at some of those we're on the fence about.

Mitch's video commentary