Spread Eagle: Welcome to the 2008 Season / NFL Week 1 Picks

It's been 214 days since the most talented team to ever play together in the NFL were beaten, bruised and completely shocked by an 11-point underdog to spoil the first perfect season the NFL would have seen in 35 years.

Since February 3rd, there has been some excitement in the gambling world, with four #1 seeds making it to the Final Four for the first time ever, the most-storied NBA franchise climbing its way from the gutter to the top in just one season, the best Wimbledon final in the history of tennis, and the Redeem Team taking the gold medal in basketball at the Olympics.

All of this happening, yet any gamblin' man can't compare any of those landmark events to the feeling of Week 1 of the NFL season. Anything can take place. The most-criticized team can upset the perceived juggernaut; the most-anticipated free agent signing can take the back seat to a rookie who was drafted by the right team for the right reasons; one injury can throw an entire offseason of hope off of a cliff; life slows down and anticipation becomes reality as you analyze each and every snap, formation, blitz and audible, and you begin to realize that how you feel for the next 20 Mondays will be completely determined by what takes place on the field the day before.

In short, you feel alive.

The Spread Eagle's collective record over the past two years has been a notch over .500, and 2008 should mark the year in which everything that we've learned over the years comes together. We can look back at picks from previous weeks, and while there are always one or two "what the…" games each week, there were certainly some avoidable losses. So without further ado, it's time to make us all some cheddar.

(Home team in bold)

THURSDAY, 7:00

Giants (-4.5) over Redskins
The Giants lost Osi Umenyiora for the year, a huge blow after Michael Strahan retired, but this defense showed during last year's playoffs that they're a versatile squad and that they can find a way to reach the quarterback one way or another. Instead of last year's deadly sack duo, the G-Men will be counting on Justin Tuck and former Boston College standout and 1^st round draft pick Mathias Kiwanuka, a combo that won't leave quarterbacks relaxed by any means.

Couple this with a much more poised Eli Manning, who should have a better TD:INT ratio than he did last year, as well as a healthy Plaxico Burress, and this squad will be contending all season long. The only problem is, every writer and analyst has been dismissing them from contention before they even step onto the field, saying things like "they got hot at the right time" or "the ball bounced their way"… things you don't want to say about a hard-nosed team who just won the Super Bowl. So these guys are probably looking at this game as an opportunity to remind everybody on national TV why they did what they did last year, a similar attitude to the "no one believes in us" mindset that got them past the Patriots.

The Redskins rallied off 4 wins in a row to clinch the final playoff spot in the NFC last year, only to be run off the field in the playoffs in Seattle. They have a new leader in head coach Jim Zorn, who has flipped the traditional smash-mouth Washington offense on its head and will instead have his team run a version of the West Coast Offense. This only means one thing: Jason Campbell will make or break this team. He has never been relied upon so heavily before, mostly due to the playmakers he has around him: Clinton Portis, Santana Moss, Chris Cooley, Antwaan Randle El, etc. So this season will be his test. Does he have what it takes? Time will tell. But is there a worse possible matchup for him in Week 1, going up against a defense-driven team with something to prove? Nope. Giants take it and cover.

SUNDAY, 1:00

Bengals (-1.5) over Ravens
All signs point to the Bengals in this one. They've won 6 of the last 7 meetings between these two teams. The Ravens are being led by a rookie head coach, John Harbaugh, who was merely handling special teams and defensive backs in his previous 9 seasons.

Recognizing his inexperience at coaching offense, he hired Cam Cameron as offensive coordinator, a wise move but one that probably won't pay off for at least a few weeks. The Ravens finished the 2007 season losing eight games in a row before stealing one against the Steelers' backups in Week 17. They drafted a fresh young QB in the 1st round, Joe Flacco out of Delaware, who they were hoping to bring up with a manageable learning curve before he stepped in as starter.

But injuries to both Kyle Boller and Troy Smith have Flacco taking the reigns in a Week 1 divisional matchup against a rival who can put up points. Enough points to cover, despite ongoing issues off of the field.

Dolphins (+3) over Jets
Beware the home dog! This is one of those aforementioned "learnings" that will be coming together this year. We won't be falling victim to that one anytime soon. Both teams have new QBs on both sides of the ball which means that neither offense will really be clicking. Favre mania will be in full effect in the tri-state area, but this match-up won't be as easy as they think. We're taking the points here.

Steelers(-6.5) over Texans
This is shaping up to be a challenging season for Pittsburgh. They have the toughest schedule on paper to start the year, and four of their first six games are on the road, meaning that a Week 1 victory against Houston is essential.

They lost at home only once in the regular season in 2007, and they'll struggle to put up those numbers this year with home games against the Giants, Colts, Chargers and Cowboys. Roethlisberger looked sharp in the preseason, generating a high completion percentage, and earned himself a captaincy on the team.  But, they need to start off on the right foot if they plan to contend this year.

The Texans are receiving a lot of hype as this year's sleeper pick for the playoffs after an 8-8 finish. They play in the league's most difficult division, however, and their .500 record let them finish in dead last in that division in 2007. Duane Brown, their 1st round pick and new starting left tackle, will need to protect Matt Shaub against a high-pressure Pittsburgh defense in order for this team to stand a chance. We don't see it happening this week.

Falcons (+3) over Lions
This is the token dismal matchup of the week. We're excited about seeing former BC standout and 3rd overall draft pick Matt Ryan make his NFL debut for the Falcons, but that's about it. Ryan has shown some strong potential since he put on the Atlanta uniform, and if his offensive line can protect him, he'll make an immediate impact on this team.

The Lions' biggest offseason news involved running backs Rudi Johnson and Tatum "Bell-hop" and a couple of Gucci bags.  And unless Calvin Johnson has the breakout party that Motor City fans are praying he does, the Lions won't be making any headlines outside of the celebrity gossip blogs.

Jags (-3) over Titans
The Titans enter the season with one thing on the mind: protect the football. The team ranked 6th in takeaways last year, but ended up with just as many giveaways, mostly due to Vince Young's nearly 2 to 1 INT:TD ratio. If he can clean up some of those picks, this team could turn some heads.

The Jags, on the other hand, have a solid QB in David Garrard who does protect the ball, finishing 2007 with six times as many touchdowns as interceptions. They also run the ball very well and play solid defense, so they're going to eat up a lot of clock.

They'll also be driven by an intangible in this game, as Richard Collier was shot earlier this week and remains in critical condition. We don't like betting against teams who are faced with such unfortunate situations, as evidenced by Washington's late-season run after Sean Taylor's death, so our advice is to keep your distance from this one.

Bills (-1) over Seahawks
The Bills are a great example of a team that saw a weakness in 2007 and improved upon it in the offseason. Their defense was porous to say the least, giving up 363 yards per game (2nd worst in the NFL), so they went out and added pro-bowl defensive end Marcus Stroud and linebacker Kawika Mitchell, a strong contributor to the Giants' playoff run. They also grabbed Spencer Johnson from the Vikings to help solidify the D-line. Knowing that they owe the fans of Buffalo a better showing than the 7-9 records they've produced the past 2 seasons, they should come out strong at Ralph Wilson Stadium on Sunday.

The Seahawks, on the other hand, are pretty banged up and have done little to improve their offense in the offseason. The jury is still out on what level of impact Julius Jones will have on the Hawks' below-average rushing attack, but the fact that Maurice Morris will get the starting nod on Sunday doesn't bode well for the former Cowboy. Nate Burleson is the only recognizable name on the starting WR corps this week, with both Deion Branch and Bobby Engram out with injuries. We don't see them putting up many points on the road in this one.

Saints (-3) over Bucs
The Saints made a big offseason splash by adding Jeremy Shockey to an already-potent offense, and they'll be playing at home after hurricane Gustav barely grazed the city of New Orleans. Everyone expects Drew Brees & Co. to pick up where they left off in the second half of the year last year as opposed to starting off as sluggishly as they did at the beginning of the year, and they're preseason favorites to take the NFC South division title.

The Bucs, on the other hand, will be defending their division title with an old set of skill players. Jeff Garcia, Joey Galloway and newly reacquired Warrick Dunn are a combined 107 years old, and will be forced to piece together chemistry on the fly after not practicing together all offseason. They'll count on their defense to perform comparably to the way it did in 2007, but their first task is not an easy one.

Eagles (-7.5) over Rams
The Rams are one of those teams that could go either way this year. They had a terribly disappointing 2007 season, finishing with only 3 wins on the year. That record allowed them to pick up defensive end Chris Long, one of the most-hyped players entering the draft, in the 2nd overall slot. They're hoping that his presence will open up holes for the rest of the defense, which gave up the second-most points in the NFL last season. The absence of Steven Jackson early in the year may create some rust on offense, but a healthy Torry Holt should help mitigate that.

The Eagles signed Asante Samuel to help strengthen their secondary and create more blitzing opportunities for defensive coordinator Jim Johnson. By adding a shut-down corner like Samuel, they can leave him on an island to go one-on-one with other teams' top receivers during all-out blitzes. This will make an already-intimidating defense that much scarier, and should take some of the pressure to score off of Brian Westbrook, who carried too much of the load in 2007. We can't say that we expect the Birds to finish atop their division, but we expect them to have a relatively easy time with the Rams on Sunday.

Pats (-16.5) over Chiefs
Here we go again with the ridiculous spreads…

Many questions linger in the Pats' camp coming in to the season, even beyond "how the #$&% did we lose that game?!"; a question Pats fans can't wait to forget about.

First, an already suspect secondary lost a lot and gained only a little this offseason. In fact, the gains were so little that the only one who even warrants mentioning in this blog is Terrence Wheatley, a guy who has yet to play a regular season game. Wheatley, a 2nd round pick out of Colorado, has the potential to become a shutdown cornerback but has to prove that he can handle the speed and agility of NFL receivers.

Second, Brady's foot issues continue to linger, keeping the reigning NFL MVP out of all four preseason games. No one seems to have any insider information about this injury thanks to Belichick's secrecy with injuries, a strategy we can't argue with but is certainly aggravating at the same time. The promising element of this is that the Pats have yet to bring on a veteran backup QB, a sign which would have hinted that this foot thing could make him miss a significant amount of time. Instead, they're sticking with Matt Cassel, a still-unproven lifetime backup.

The loss of Donte Stallworth won't be felt too badly given the depth that was already there in the wide receiver spot, particularly with last season's emergence of Jabbar Gaffney as a solid #3 guy. He'll probably line up opposite Moss at wideout, with Wes Welker continuing to create magic from the slot position.

One element, which will be crucial to the team's success, is the offensive line, which can't just rely on facing a 4-man rush all the time. Blocking and protection go hand-in-hand with the success of the offense, and can't be overlooked as an Achilles heel for this team. Logan Mankins will most likely have his hands full trying to keep rookie 1st round draft pick Glenn Dorsey away from Brady, so it will be up to the rest of the guys to help out elsewhere.

The Chiefs will be looking for Brodie Croyle to lead this team, which is an unrealistic expectation at this point in his career. He played in 9 games last season, eclipsing 200 yards only once and throwing only 6 touchdowns to go along with an equal amount of interceptions. Their offense will continue to rely heavily on Larry Johnson, who is coming off of a leg injury that kept him out of the final 8 weeks of the season in 2007. Given Belichick's ability to take away a team's best offensive threat, this spread doesn't seem insurmountable all of a sudden.

SUNDAY, 4:00

Cowboys (-6) over Browns
The home dog theory doesn't work for the Dogs this week. They're banged up, with their two main stars from 2007, Derek Anderson and Braylon Edwards, missing time due to injury. Both should be back for the season opener on Sunday, but their lack of time practicing together draws questions about their level of chemistry going into Week 1. Jamal Lewis, who rushed for 1,300 yards last season, has missed time this preseason as well. Kellen Winslow is expected to have a big year at tight-end, and the addition of Donte Stallworth should add to the threat of the passing attack, but it may take a few weeks before the Browns' stars are all on the same page.

The Cowboys, on the other hand, come into this game with a healthy squad and the addition of highly-talented yet high-maintenance cornerback Adam "Pacman" Jones, whose impact on the team has yet to be shown. The key ingredients remain the same, with Tony Romo, Terrell Owens, Jason Witten and Marion "The Barbarian" Barber leading the attack, and no key personnel were lost. The Cowboys remain a favorite to make a Super Bowl run, with the major question being whether or not they can win in the playoffs, which they haven't been able to do since 1996.

Chargers (-9) over Panthers
This one is quite simple. Without Steve "Holyfield" Smith, who is suspended for fighting teammate Ken Lucas in practice, the Panthers don't stand a chance against a top-notch AFC opponent. Despite the fact that several key Chargers will be playing at less than 100%, the Panthers' offense just doesn't have the firepower required to keep up with San Diego. Shawne Merriman's torn ligaments are probably enough to tell him to stop taking HGH, but they're not enough to keep him off the field, and Antonio Gates is still reeling from having surgery on his toe, but LaDainian Tomlinson is all they'll need in this one. Chargers in a blowout.

49ers (+2.5) over Cardinals
It took quite a while to make a pick in this game, and ultimately we decided to go with that home dog theory again. The Niners start rookie J.T. O'Sullivan at QB, a bold move as it involves benching former #1 overall draft pick Alex Smith. Some re-org is a necessity for their squad this year, as they ranked dead last in both yards and points scored on offense in 2007.

Additions of former divisional opponents Bryant Johnson and Isaac Bruce should help strengthen the receiving corps and give defenses more to worry about than they did last year. Strong production out of O'Sullivan and the receivers will open things up for Frank Gore, who now has DeShawn Foster as a good backup for when he needs a rest. Vernon Davis remains an above-average tight end with great hands, but who will only succeed if the QB can put the ball there.

The Cardinals obviously have concerns about Matt Leinart after naming Kurt Warner the Week 1 starter. With Anquan Boldin disgruntled and demanding a trade in the offseason and Edgerrin James averaging less than 4 yards per carry for a second consecutive year in 2007, the perceived firepower on this offense may end up to be nothing more than a spark here and there.

SUNDAY, 8:15

Colts (-9.5) over Bears
The Bears will probably have a slightly easier time handling Peyton Manning than they did when they faced him in the Super Bowl two years ago, but facing him is never easy. Manning had offseason knee surgery that may keep him at 70-80% for the first few weeks of the season, but that should still be enough to outscore a very weak Bears offense.

With unproven Kyle Orton taking snaps, rookie Matt Forte handling the bulk of the rushes, and their #1 wideout being a guy with 39 career receptions in 3 seasons, this team is going to have to rely on their defense holding opponents to single digits each game. Even if Devin Hester has a year on special teams like he did last year, that still only accounts for a touchdown every 2-3 games. Not enough when you're facing one of the league's top offenses and smartest quarterbacks, even if he is banged up.

The Colts' season outlook is probably going to be fine. They do have the 2nd-toughest schedule on paper, but they usually find a way to win with Manning. Marvin Harrison is also coming off of knee surgery, but his preseason performance gives us every reason to believe he'll be in full form in no time. Once again, Indy will not be an easy team to beat this year.

MONDAY, 7:00

Vikings (+2.5) over Packers
The Vikings had the top-ranked defense against the run and worst ranked defense against the pass in 2007. So what did they do to fill that void? Signed a guy who finished the season with 15.5 sacks last year in Jared Allen, ultimately reducing the amount of time that opposing QBs will have to pick apart their secondary. They also had the top-ranked rushing offense and 28th-ranked passing offense, so what did they do to bridge that gap? Signed a legitimate deep threat who caught 71 balls for nearly 1,000 yards last season in Bernard Berrian. The scary part is about this signing is that it's going to further expose defenses for Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor to slash through them even more than last year. Maybe "scary" is too soft of a word…

The Packers should fare pretty well this season, but it may take a few games before they start to click. Ryan Grant sat out some of the preseason in a contract dispute, and then pulled his hamstring in practice, which forced him to miss the first 3 preseason games. Given most coaches' hesitancy to play their starters much, if at all during the 4th and most unnecessary preseason game, Grant was pulled after only one play in that game. His lack of in-game repetitions should pave the way for 2nd-year man Brandon Jackson to take a handful of carries in this game, which should be viewed in a negative light by Packers fans.

The main story is obviously Aaron Rodgers, the second guy to start a regular season game for the Packers since 1992 when Magic Man Don Majkowski tore ankle ligaments in a game against the Bengals. There's been enough hype about him that we don't need to give much detail. Just know that there may be a handful of openings in the Packers' front office if he doesn't have a good year.

MONDAY, 10:30

Raiders (+3) over Broncos
The Broncos return the main playmakers from their offense in 2007, with Jay Cutler running the show and Brandon Marshall as the #1 wideout. Marshall, Denver's best offensive player, won't be available during this game due to a suspension for violating the league's personal conduct code, and this is going to considerably slow down the Broncos' attack. His replacement will be rookie Eddie Royal, who has shown promising ability during the preseason but has no regular season experience and may take time to adjust. The running back corps will most likely operate by committee, with Selvin Young getting the start and Andre Hall coming in for relief, but Oakland should be able to commit more men to the run knowing that the Broncos' big-play threat won't be on the field.

The Raiders' big offseason signing was former Broncos star receiver Javon Walker, who will need to develop a strong chemistry with JaMarcus Russell if the Raiders want to improve on their 31st ranked passing offense in 2007. The addition of Heisman Trophy winner Darren McFadden will also help that ranking given his ability to catch balls out of the backfield, and should help contribute to a rushing attack that averaged over 130 yards/game in 2007.

Oakland's underrated defense, led by arguably the top cornerback in the league, Nnamdi Asomugha, should be able to give the offense plenty of opportunities to put points on the board. Look for the Raiders to take control of this game and pull out the upset at home in front of an energized Monday Night crowd.

Wow. Talk about feeling alive. Best of luck in 2008…