Ferrari Vs Mclaren- Who will be crowned Champions?

The last 6 rounds of the world championship are going to provide a great climax to the championship battle between Mclaren and Ferrari. It looked like at the start BMW Sauber may also join this season’s championship battle but as the season has gone on they have drifted away and concentrated more on the new 2009 rules. Therefore the battle is left to just Mclaren and Ferrari.

There are no politics threatening this championship whatsoever so I am pleased to say this classic battle will be decided on the track rather than off it. With both championships being so close, Mclaren and Ferrari are closely matched pace wise and points wise in the championship. This is a tough one to call.

Here are the stats between Mclaren and Ferrari so far this season:

Drivers Championship

Hamilton- 70   

Massa- 64       

Raikkonen- 57

Constructors Championship

Ferrari-121     

Mclaren- 113

Driver Wins/Pole Positions

Hamilton-4/4   

Massa- 4/4      

Raikkonen- 2/2

Team Wins/Pole Positions

Ferrari- 6/6     

Mclaren- 5/5

Driver Fastest Laps

Raikkonen- 7  

Kovalainen- 2

Massa- 1

Team Fastest laps

Ferrari- 8        

Mclaren- 2

Podium Places

Ferrari- 13      

Mclaren- 9

Laps Led

Ferrari- 413 laps     

Mclaren- 262 laps

Raced Laps

Ferrari- 1401 laps     

Mclaren- 1431 laps

Let’s have a look where the advantages lie in a number of different areas between Mclaren and Ferrari: Qualifying and race pace, Reliability, Drivers, the weather, Penalties, Tactics and Pressure and then we will look at where the advantage lies at each of the remaining 6 tracks.

Both car’s outright qualifying and race pace

Mclaren and Ferrari’s cars are very similar in pace at the moment. Last season Mclaren was quicker on the slower circuits whereas Ferrari is quicker on the faster circuits. However since the beginning of the season both teams have been closing in on the other in their area of weakness. This has made this championship more interesting. Over a single lap the Mclaren is definitely the quicker package. The Mclaren is a bit more aggressive on it’s tyres. Therefore Mclaren can warm up their tyres quicker on the warm-up before a single flying lap. The Ferrari is kinder to it’s tyres over a race stint which means that although this gives them the edge in a race it gives them a disadvantage when trying to bang in that great qualifying lap. Engine wise I think Ferrari has a slight advantage, particularly in terms of straight-line speed. However the gap isn’t very big. Ferrari could have a slight advantage due to their engine at Monza.

At the moment I would say that overall Ferrari are 0.1 or 0.2 seconds per lap faster than Mclaren in normal race conditions. However that isn’t a very big gap. Great driver performance or superior tactics can easily make it up during a race. This time last season Mclaren’s car development was hampered by the fact they were involved in the spy saga. This was a huge distraction. This allowed Ferrari to out-develop Mclaren in the last third of last season. There are no such political issues this season and Mclaren are really charged up so I fully expect Mclaren to be able to stretch their resources to their limit and be able to out-develop Ferrari this season.

Qualifying- Advantage Mclaren

Race pace – Advantage Ferrari

Reliability

Reliability wise Mclaren have really upped their game in the last couple of years and have had minimal issues. Ferrari on the other hand since the “Dream Team” left have had a few reliability problems creeping in and this could cost them the championship. Massa was about to win the Hungarian GP before an engine failure 3 laps before the end of the race. Raikkonen also suffered a similar failure in Valencia. Raikkonen also pulled out of qualifying in Melbourne with a gremlin, which cost him the chance of going for pole and winning the race. Mclaren so far this season have had no major issues apart from Kovalainen’s not getting away from the Monaco GP grid. In seasons gone by Mclaren have been used to losing championships due to poor reliability. However they must not push too hard on development and let this newfound reliability record slip in the remaining races.

Advantage - Mclaren

The Drivers

All the top team drivers have made errors this season. Massa had scored nothing due to errors in the first two races of the season, and had a terrible race in Silverstone spinning 5 times in the rain along with conceding position too easily to Hamilton in Hockenheim. However he has driven some great races in Bahrain, Turkey, Hungary and Valencia. These races show that he is now a very capable front line driver amongst the rest of them.

Lewis Hamilton in the first half of the season has showed at times, that he was struggling to deal with the responsibility of number 1 in the Mclaren team. He made mistakes such as hitting Alonso in Bahrain, brain fade in the Canadian pit lane when he forgot about the red light. He also drove very scruffily in France and didn’t look himself. However he has matured a lot in recent months and has ensured that he takes big points from all the races. Races such as that in Silverstone where Hamilton thrashed the field in the wet conditions prove his huge amount of talent, which perhaps nobody in the field can match on days like that. To me Hamilton has a higher level he can reach than any of the other drivers in the top two teams when at his absolute best. Hamilton will have learnt a lot from last season when lost the championship after a strong lead with two rounds to go. In effect that reality check from last season may help him in this season’s title challenge and future campaigns to come.

Kimi Raikkonen hasn’t been at his best this season at all and has only won two races. He has struggled in qualifying and his race pace has been very patchy. He hasn’t got the best out of himself or the car this season and this has been a problem for Ferrari. However Raikkonen is still close enough to mount a championship challenge by the virtue of that Hamilton and Massa, despite their brilliance have made some bad errors as mentioned. This causes a bigger headache for Ferrari. Do they root for Massa for the rest of the championship or do they let Raikkonen try and get into the hunt so they have two drivers going for the title against Hamilton? There is a problem with both decisions. If Ferrari put all their eggs in Massa’s basket and he cracks under the pressure in the deciding races they haven’t got another driver to fall back on, as Raikkonen would have been sacrificing points to help Massa. If they allow Raikkonen to try and fightback you have a situation where Raikkonen could draw level on points with Massa and they both and try fight Hamilton for the WDC. The problem this causes is that Raikkonen and Massa may effectively take points off each other thus benfiting Hamilton’s campaign.

At Mclaren there isn’t such an issue. Heikki Kovalainen has had a lot of bad luck in this championship along with races where Hamilton has simply outclassed him. This means that Mclaren can use Kovalainen as a wingman to help Hamilton win the championship.

To sum it all up Hamilton’s highest level of performance is better than the highest level of performance of Raikkonen and Massa in this writer’s opinion. Hamilton is fully focused on the job in hand and has got over his troubles from earlier on in the season. I think when it comes to the drivers Mclaren have the advantage in terms of ability of their championship contender and that the other driver in the team isn’t in contention, which is a luxury Ferrari don’t have.

Advantage - Mclaren

The Weather

In this season’s run in the weather is going to play a key part in where the titles go. Possibly a bigger part than the weather has had to play in any championship. As we have discovered earlier on the Mclaren and Ferrari cars are very evenly matched. The weather is one of the factors that could separate them. A very warm track makes life harder for the tyres and therefore degradation over a long race stint more of an issue. This plays into the hands of Ferrari and their ability to look after the tyres slightly better than Mclaren. In Hungary for example where the cars were evenly matched the extremely warm race conditions allowed Massa to edge it in terms of pace over Hamilton. We saw this again in Valencia as Massa showed great race pace with the Ferrari in warm conditions.

The Mclaren on the other hand prefers the cooler conditions and can compete on a par with Ferrari more in these sorts of conditions. In the rain however the Mclaren is definitely more suited than the Ferrari is. We saw the Ferraris really struggling at Silverstone in atrocious conditions and in Monaco the Mclaren seemed to deal better with the changeable conditions particularly in the middle of race. As well Ferrari haven’t been as strong on the tactical side this season with bad calls in both wet races. Whereas Mclaren have got spot on in the changeable conditions. Ferrari have only won 2 of the last 7 wet races in Formula 1 compared with Mclaren who have won 4 of the last 7.

The good news from Mclaren’s point of view is that rain is a potential possibility in any of the remaining 6 races. In Spa Francorchamps there is always a threat of rain and Europe is going through a cool end to Summer. So there is a chance Monza may not be that warm either

The race in Singapore will be held in night conditions, which means hot track temperatures will not be seen there. Japan, China and Brazil could all have a strong chance of being rain-affected races and providing hot baking races. In China for example rain has affected the last two GPs. Last year in Brazil darker tarmac was laid which took in the hot Brazil heat and this gave advantage to the Ferraris in last season’s title decider.

Hot and Sunny weather – Advantage Ferrari

Cool and wet weather – Advantage Mclaren

Penalties

I think we all hope this isn’t a deciding factor in the last 6 races, but there have been so many instances that have gone Ferrari’s way in the past that it can’t just always be a coincidence. There is wide opinion in the paddock that Mclaren are dealt with far harsher than Ferrari when it comes to breaking rules. Especially after last season’s politics. Let’s use Massa’s dangerous release in the pit lane in Valencia as an example for a moment. In the end I think it was the right decision not to punish Massa heavily and dock him points or remove his victory. However if Mclaren had been involved in the same incident would they have been treated the same? I think a large majority of people you asked in the paddock would have said no.

In 2003 Michelins wide tyres were banned which took an edge off the Michelin runners in the last part of the season. In 2006 Renault had their Mass Damper system banned which again helped Ferrari in the last third of the championship.

When it comes to help from the FIA Ferrari do have a clear advantage and if anything controversial happens in any of these last 6 races (which is possible in the intensity of the battle ahead) we can bet there is sizeable chance it goes Ferrari’s way. Lets hope nothing like this happens and the title is decided on the track rather than off it.

Advantage - Ferrari

Tactics

While the “Dream Team” were at Ferrari, tactics in any race conditions were something Ferrari always got spot on. However Ferrari have lacked in the tactics department this season and Mclaren have been stronger, which I have to admit has taken me by surprise. In Monaco Ferrari anticipated more rain when it never came and this ruined Felipe Massa’s chances of victory. In Silverstone they made an even bigger blunder when they left the same Intermediate tyres on at Kimi Raikkonen’s first pit stop. This ensured that Raikkonen lost contact with Hamilton after this stop.

Another question I have over Ferrari’s tactics is why have they being giving Raikkonen a heavy fuel load when he has been struggling over a single lap? This just puts Raikkonen down the field and he ends up stuck behind a slower car. Raikkonen has often been far stronger starting from the front of the field. The area where I would criticize Mclaren’s tactics is they do at times tend to be a little bit too conservative, particularly on fuel loads. This may have cost them in races like Valencia. Mclaren are better when they are confident, and make big and bold calls like putting Hamilton on 3 stops in Turkey, and keeping him out on Intermediates in terrible conditions in Silverstone.

With Mclaren and Ferrari closely match it could take the pit wall to decide the winner of a race. At the moment on the tactics front I think Mclaren are looking the stronger whilst Ferrari are making too many errors. If Ross Brawn were still on the Ferrari wall the complexion of the championship battle could be looking very different.

Advantage - Mclaren

Pressure

In a tight championship fight there is always a lot of high pressure when it comes to putting that qualifying lap together, or making a quick pit stop to get out in front of a championship rival. Cracking under pressure at the wrong moment can decide the championship. Ferrari have shown a lot of cracks this season. Most strikingly how they seemed to make their life in Valencia so hard for themselves. If a big decision is needed in a wet race or in the finale you wonder whether they can cope with this situation.

Last season Mclaren gave both championships to Ferrari so this wasn’t such an issue. Mclaren themselves have got things badly wrong in the past such as putting Hamilton on 3 stops in last season’s finale after he slowed and he lost track position. That just didn’t work out. Hamilton and Mclaren have both learnt from their previous errors and they seem really fired up to win the championship. Hamilton has learned what he needs to do to win this championship and I can’t see him making the errors twice.

Ferrari’s championship challenge is likely to come from Massa at this stage. However Massa has never been at this stage at anytime in his career. Massa has been known to make mistakes and crack under pressure and in the heat of a championship battle that could become an issue. Lets say Hamilton is chasing down Massa’s lead in the Brazilian GP to try and take the title. Who is your money on in that situation? On the other hand having the season finale at Brazil and fighting for the title in front of his home crowd might play into the hands of Massa.

Overall I think both these teams have shown that they can crack under pressure. However at the moment I feel Ferrari and Massa are slighty more fragile than Mclaren and Hamilton.

Advantage- Mclaren

The tracks

Let’s summarize each track individually and see where the advantage may lie.

Belgium, Spa- Mclaren will be a lot closer to Ferrari here than last season, now that they have improved on the faster circuits. This weekend is expected to be a cool and wet weekend so Ferrari don’t have their hot weather trump card for this race. Ferrari will still be very competitive though and even in the dry it will be very tight. Verdict – Slight Mclaren advantage

Italy- Monza- Ferrari have a slightly stronger engine than Mclaren do. This should help Ferrari in on all of Monza’s straights. In Mclaren’s favour they are very strong over the kerbs. Mclaren dominated in Monza last season but I think this season it is much closer. Ferrari will make sure they are very well prepared for their home race, so that they don’t get humiliated again which was painful for them. I think the fight for victory will be very tight. I can’t pick the likely winner. Verdict- Even

Singapore- This is a completely new challenge for both teams, as it is a new track and F1’s first night race. Therefore it is an adventure into the unknown. One of the key factors is that due to the race taking place at night the track temperature will be a lot cooler than it would be during the day time therefore Ferrari can’t make advantage of the fact their car works better in the heat. Also the track looks relatively slow engine power won’t be a key factor either. I think this will be another close race. Verdict- Slight Mclaren advantage

Japan, Fuji Speedway- This track has a very wet micro-climate due to being situated right next to Mount Fuji. Out of all the tracks remaining in this championship this is the highest risk of a wet race alongside Spa. In the dry I would give Ferrari the slight edge as their engine will purr down the 1.5km long straight and work well in the first two fast sectors. If we were to see a downpour again then I expect Hamilton and Mclaren to come into their own. Verdict- Slight Ferrari advantage in the dry but strong Mclaren advantage in the wet.

China, Shanghai- Shanghai is a very technical circuit with a mixture of fast and slow corners. Overall Mclaren and Ferrari will be pretty equal on this circuit. The only real separating factor is going to be the weather. In China it can either be hot or it can rain as it has done for the last 2 races at this track. So that’s what I feel it’s going to come down to. The other important point is that both Mclaren and Ferrari will have been working like mad to get their cars ready for this final leg of races. As discussed before Mclaren have a slightly better development rate than Ferrari. This could become very important at this point. Verdict- Not much to separate Mclaren and Ferrari trackwise but Ferrari will have the edge if it is hot, Mclaren will have the edge if it rains here for the 3^rd season on the trot.

Brazil, Interlagos- The championship is very likely to go all the way down to the final race, either in the drivers or constructors’ championship or possibly both. Over the last couple of seasons it has been very hot on race day here. Even more significantly last season the track was smoothed out and re-surfaced with a darker tarmac. This may not seem important but the darker track surface takes in the heat more, leading to hotter track temperature. This of course suits Ferrari as explained earlier. If it is another very hot race then Ferrari have a good chance of a 1-2 finish in this race. To have a realistic chance of winning here Mclaren ideally need the heavens to happen as it did in 2003. Verdict- Ferrari will be too strong for Mclaren if the track is warm, as it normally is on a dry day in Brazil. Mclaren need rain for their strongest chance of victory.

Final Conclusion and Prediction

At the start of the season it looked as if Ferrari were going to dominate this championship. However it turned out that Mclaren went the wrong way on setup in the first few races. Since around the Turkish GP onwards this has been a very tight championship, and Mclaren have overtaken Ferrari in a few areas as we have discovered throughout the article.

These last 6 races are going to be like a mini championship. Mclaren and Ferrari have both been dropping silly points throughout the season. That is all done now and the fact is they are very close in both championships. It’s as if the championship is starting now and that is how the two teams have to approach it. It’s going to be very exciting!

We have reached a point where both the Mclaren and Ferrari are very even on pace. This means that it is going to be all the little factors that decide where the championships go, such as: the predominant weather conditions over the next 6 races, driver errors or a couple of wrong tactical decisions etc.

As for my final predictions? Ferrari currently have an 8 point lead in the contructors championship. I think Mclaren may take the lead at some point in the last few races but I think Ferrari’s form at Brazil may prove to be very significant. If Ferrari were to take the 1-2 finish that I have predicted for them there, then I think they can snatch it.

Constructor’s Championship Prediction: FERRARI(just by 1 or 2 points)

In the Driver’s championship Lewis Hamilton currently has a 6 point lead. I think Hamilton will be strong in the last 6 races particularly if rain features at a couple of them. Ferrari are likely to continue to let Raikkonen and Massa battle for the moment and I think this going to end up in them taking points off each other. I think this along with the possibility of wet races are two of the main factors. Massa, I feel under the pressure situation of battling for the championship in the last couple of rounds is more vulnerable than Hamilton who has already had the experience and knows better how to get the job done.

Driver’s Championship Prediction: LEWIS HAMILTON