Fantasy Football Playoff Primer and S.O.S. Chart: Running Backs

Christmas comes early for fantasy owners, as Week 14 signals the onset of the much anticipated fantasy playoffs.  Blizzard conditions are fast approaching, so don’t be left out in the cold.  We’ve done the research to provide you with in-depth analysis to keep you ahead of the competition when setting your lineups.  

If you have marginal starters, it’s not unthinkable to patrol the waiver wires for a replacement, even this late.  Playing the match-ups can be the difference between you packing up your locker in disgust after Week 14 and hoisting the fantasy Lombardi as the envy of your league.

UPGRADES

LeGarrette Blount

Despite recent reports that he could lose goal line carries to veteran Ernest Graham, we expect the 250 pound rookie to get his fair share of carries, including those in the red zone, as the Bucs make a push for the playoffs.

Since taking over as the starting RB in Week 8, the Oregon alum has averaged 19 carries for 82 yards while scoring four TDs in the past six games.  Tampa faces three struggling run defenses over the next three weeks.  Washington, Detroit and Seattle are allowing over 120 yards per game on the ground.  Blount is an ideal RB No. 2 for the playoff run.

Knowshon Moreno

With the firing of Josh McDaniels and hiring of RB coach Eric Studesville, it’s very possible that Denver might employ a greater focus on the running game for the remainder of the season.  The Denver running game has floundered this year, ranking in the bottom 10 in yards-per-carry average (3.80), rushing touchdowns (eight) and rushes of 20 yards or more (three).  Only the pathetic Seahawks, painful to watch Cardinals and chronically injured Colts have averaged fewer rushing yards per game.  

In his second year, Moreno has missed three games with hamstring injuries but has topped 100 yards twice in the past month.  Over the next three weeks, he faces Arizona’s 29th ranked run defense in Week 14 and Oakland’s 29th ranked run defense in Week 15, meaning he could very well be an integral part of your race to the title game. 

Moreno has shown the promise that made him a high draft pick since returning from the hammy issue.

DOWNGRADES

Cedric Benson

Benson is averaging 70 yards per game and less than 3.5 yards per carry.  He can’t even be counted on for touchdowns at this point.  He has just six TDs through 12 games, which means he may have landed more punches in bars in 2010 than he has scores on the field.  But it seems like the Bengals organization prizes crime higher than on-field results anyway. 

Benson has difficult match-ups remaining with Pittsburgh and San Diego in the next month. The Bengals (have they once again earned the right to be called the Bungles?) might decide to work Bernard Scott into the mix.  As this lost season winds down, they really should see what they have in Scott.  

Benson is a free agent after the final snap of the regular season and there is no guarantee that he’ll be back in tiger stripes in 2011. He may want to go on a little crime wave to make himself more attractive to the organization. 

His Week 14 matchup with the Steelers' No. 1 defense (64 yards/game) makes him bench worthy.  In a Week 9 match-up with the modern day Steel curtain, Benson had 18 carries for 54 yards and a TD.  That was before the team quit.

Matt Forte

The third year RB from Tulane remains a viable RB2 in PPR leagues.  He has 36 catches for 389 yards and three receiving TDs through 12 games.  Forte tore up an Eagles defense that has played some of the best backs in the league to a stalemate this season.  He doesn’t have any match-ups regarded as favorable in the next three weeks. 

The Bears line up against stout run defenses in Minnesota (No. 5) and the NY Jets (No. 4) in Weeks 15 and 16.  In a Week 10 home matchup against Minnesota, Forte had 21 carries for 69 yards (only 3.3 YPC).  With Chester Taylor stealing some carries in the red zone, Forte could disappoint when you need him most.  Lets face it, he’s really just not that good, and certainly not as good as the Eagles made him look in Week 12.

SLEEPERS

Tashard Choice

Marion Barber suffered a calf injury in Week 12 and is unlikely to be an option until week 15, at the earliest.  Even if Barber can return in Week 14, the Cowboys have incentive to give the ball to Choice.  They may very well be willing to cut bait with the oft-injured and overpaid Barber if they become convinced Choice can be an effective replacement. Considering Barber’s 3.1 ypc average, that shouldn’t be a tough decision. 

Heading into Week 13, the Dallas run game ranked 31st in the NFL (76 yards/game).  Choice made them look like a top 10 rushing unit.  The 25-year-old RB out of Georgia Tech averaged an impressive 5.5 yards per carry in limited action last season. Barber has had two straight injury plagued seasons and Felix Jones, despite being one of the more dynamic open field runners, has yet to carry the ball over 15 times in a single game.  Choice is dynamic, but there is something missing there as well according to reviews from around the league.  Choice and Felix Jones would lack little as a combo in the playoffs and in 2011.

In Week 13, Choice carried the ball 19 times for 100 yards and a touchdown but struggled to score in the red zone as he was stuffed on four occasions against a so-so Indy defense.  Regardless, he has earned 15-plus carries going forward and should be a legit flex option and with favorable matchups in Weeks 15/16 against weak run defenses in Washington (26th) and Arizona (29th), perhaps even a No. 2 RB.

Michael Bush

One of our favorite preseason sleepers was surpassed on the Raider depth chart by Darren McFadden but returned to fantasy relevance in Week 13 against San Diego.  The physical 245 pound rusher finished with 23 carries for 95 yards and a touchdown in a silver and black domination of the Chargers. 

McFadden will continue to be the lead back, but Bush will get his carries as well.  Look for the Raiders to employ a ground and pound attack that should make Bush worth considering based on a favorable stretch of games ahead. 

Oakland doesn’t face a defense ranked among the top 20 in run defense over the next three weeks, going up against cream puff defenses Denver (31st) and Indianapolis (30th) in Weeks 15/16.  Facing Denver is akin to running against a quality 1AA defense, like Villanova or Delaware. 

RB Strength of Schedule, Weeks 14-16

Click here for the SOS chart and check out the Playoff Primer's for quarterbacks and wide receivers while you are there.  Good luck in the playoffs.  Follow us on Twitter for all the news @FFSpin.