Peyton Manning: Are We Witnessing His Downfall? Not Quite

There is one universal truth in sports and that is that at some point, age catches up to athletes, even the ones that stand the tallest and shine the brightest.

For some, like Derek Jeter, it happens overnight, when the player will go from the league’s best at his position and a serious MVP candidate one year to notching career lows in just about every statistical category the next. For others, like Shaquille O’Neal, it’s a slow process in which the player isn’t the most feared and dominant force he once was, but can still be the best player on the floor some nights even as he continues to age.

That brings us to the case of Peyton Manning. The all-time great, surefire first ballot Hall of Fame quarterback of the Indianapolis Colts has begun to look awfully ordinary over the past month. Or awful and ordinary, however you’d like to word it.

Starting with a Week 9 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, over a stretch of five games, Manning has thrown nine touchdowns and 13 interceptions. Four of those picks were returned for touchdowns and, not surprisingly, the Colts lost four of those five games, putting them in serious danger of missing the playoffs for the first time since 2001.

So that begs the question: Are we watching Manning’s ability diminish instantly before our eyes or is this nothing more then a bad stretch in what is beginning to look like a lost season? I believe it to be the latter and there are four pieces of evidence that support my hypothesis:

1. Key injuries on offense. Just as age can sneak up on you and kill a great thing, injuries have been known to do the same. In a Week 6 win over Washington, Indianapolis lost running back Joseph Addai and arguably Manning’s favorite target, tight end Dallas Clark. Addai is still working to return from a neck injury, while Clark was placed on injured reserve with a broken wrist. Three weeks later, Austin Collie was lost to a concussion and has yet to return.

The Colts left Washington at 4-2, headed for a much needed bye week. Through six games, Manning had tallied 13 touchdowns and just two interceptions while throwing for no less than 244 yards in any game. Then the injuries started to pile up.

2. Lack of a running game. The loss of Addai left the Colts without a legitimate threat in the backfield, thus leaving Manning without a running game he could rely on. That would be detrimental to any quarterback, but none more than Manning because no one is better at beating defenses with playaction passes. Filling in for Addai has been Donald Brown, Mike Hart and Javarris James.

Do any of those names scare you? It’s not like there is anything special about Addai, but he is an accomplished back that defenses have to respect. In the Colts' six games without Addai, they have rushed for a total of 380 yards while averaging just 3.06 yards per carry. For perspective, Addai himself ran for 406 yards, averaging 4.4 yards per rush in the first six games. NFL defenses can make even the best quarterbacks look average once an offense becomes one-dimensional.

3. Early deficits. Indianapolis has been slow out of the gate throughout this abysmal stretch. They trailed 13-0 in the first quarter at Philadelphia, 14-0 in the second at New England, 16-7 in the second versus San Diego, and 17-0 early against Dallas. Playing catch up from basically the opening kick puts stress on the quarterback because the offense is forced to throw on almost every down. It causes him to take more chances, which lead to bad decisions, which lead to more interceptions (see 13 in last five games).

4. Great players don’t fall off the mantle in a matter of six weeks. Before the injuries that dramatically dumbed down the Colts' offense, Manning had Indianapolis in first place and almost a 7:1 touchdown-interception ratio. He is still on pace to throw for 4,945 yards, which would dwarf his previous career-high of 4,557, and 32 touchdowns.

Manning is also on pace to throw 20 interceptions, his highest total since throwing 23 in 2001, the last year he was watching the playoffs from home instead of playing. I still find it hard to believe the Colts won’t catch the Jaguars and win the AFC South to qualify for a ninth consecutive postseason. Even if they don’t, Colts Nation can rest easy.

Father time isn’t anywhere near Peyton’s blindside.

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