Fantasy Football: Week 1 Preview, Part 1

So with the NFL schedule the way it is, we need to break the games up into a few days worth of previews. Starting next week, we’ll preview the 1pm games on Thursday and the 4pm games on Friday. We’ll do the Monday night games on Monday morning once baseball season ends. Until the baseball season ends, the Monday game will be part of the 4pm games. I know, confusing. The day job will just get in the way of multiple Monday morning posts.

Here’s the deal: You start your studs. Unless specifically stated, Tomlinson, Peterson, Brady, Moss, Manning, and Westbrook are definite plays. Steven Jackson, Joseph Addai, Terrell Owens, and Reggie Wayne are right there as well. Basically, those first-round picks are there for a reason. They should help carry a team.

Washington vs. New York Giants

When the Giants Pass – The Giants are most effective when they can run the ball, but Eli Manning will want to prove that last season’s playoff run was no fluke. Manning’s stats should mirror Campbell’s. Expect a few more yards, closer to the 250 mark if you get the bonus points. Plaxico Burress is certainly good for one of those and look for Steve Smith to grab the other.

When the Giants Run – This should be the bread and butter of the Giants game. Brandon Jacobs will be the work horse of the two backs, but Ahmad Bradshaw could pilfer the touchdown run. Here’s thinking that Brandon Jacobs will run for over 100.

When the Redskins Pass – Entering the season, the Giants' pass rush is very suspect. They will struggle to get pressure from the ends without Michael Strahan and Osi Umenyiora. Losing those two has forced them to push linebackers up to the line and created a general thin front seven. This should work to the Redskins advantage, specifically in the West Coast scheme.

Jason Campbell should be effective. Look for 230 yards/2 TD/1 INT. Chris Cooley will grab one of those passes and add 75 yards. The other should go to Santana Moss, who should be good for 100 yards as well.

When the Redskins run – This has to favor the Giants' defense. Yes, Clinton Portis is a top-tier running back, but there are many detractors, including yours truly. Portis is likely good for 80 yards against the Giants defense, but I don’t anticipate any touchdowns coming his way.

Sleeper Pickups – As mentioned above, the thinking here is Steve Smith should grab the other touchdown reception. Kevin Boss feels good for five to six receptions and 60 yards.

Might Want to Bench – Antwaan Randle El and Amani Toomer. Just a feeling.

Detroit vs. Atlanta

When the Lions Pass – The fact is, Atlanta could be a team that gets scored on with regularity. That said, the Lions want to control the ball and they’ll do that through the running game. They have playmakers at receiver, but Kitna needs to limit his turnovers. The new philosophy in mind, Kitna feels good for 240/2/1 and starting both Calvin Johnson and Roy Williams should make owners feel good. The Falcons just don’t have shut down corners to keep those guys down.

When the Lions Run – Kevin Smith is going to get the call early on, even with Rudi Johnson having been signed. Smith is going to be in a fight for the job every time he touches the ball. It’s a lot of pressure for anyone, even a talented rookie like Smith. Expect 80 yards and a touchdown in his debut. Rudi Johnson shouldn’t be a factor in this one.

When the Falcons Pass - The Lions' defense is soft, but there isn’t going to be a week early on that we’ll recommend playing Matt Ryan. Even during bye weeks, there are going to be better options. Roddy White is the best of the Falcons weapons and the only one that should be started. Expect 200 yards from Ryan, but two interceptions are almost a given. White should be good for nearly half of those passing yards. Ryan likely has just one passing touchdown.

When the Falcons Run – The key for the Falcons all season will be the play of Michael Turner. Turner has never carried a full load, but has given some solid preseason indications that he’s up for the job. Against a porous defense, Turner is good for 100 and a touchdown.

Sleeper Pickups – In the early going, Ryan will need his tight end, Ben Hartsock. He grabs Ryan’s touchdown pass and registers 50 yards.

Might Want to Bench – Any Falcons' receiver not named Roddy White. Not seeing big things for Mike Furrey either.

Seattle vs. Buffalo

When the Seahawks Run – Expect them to do a lot of this. With injuries to Bobby Engram and Deion Branch, Hasselbeck will need to rely on Julius Jones and Maurice Morris to do some of the heavy lifting. Jones hasn’t been asked to carry the full load and he’ll get a timeshare here as well. Buffalo will key on the run, so expect somewhere around 75 yards from Jones with a touchdown likely.

When the Seahawks Pass – Matt Hasselbeck could be in trouble here. The injuries alone are going to force the Seahawks to go down the depth chart to Nate Burleson and Courtney Taylor. Expecting much more than 220 yards and a touchdown is being generous.

When the Bills Run – The horse is Marshawn Lynch and he’s going to get the chance to do something special this season. Lynch is going up against a stingy defense, but should still be able to put up just shy of 100 yards and a touchdown.

When the Bills Pass – Not an easy matchup for Trent Edwards. Expect stats similar to those of Hasselbeck, but a throwing touchdown doesn’t seem to be the way to go here. Keep Lee Evans active, but Roscoe Parrish and James Hardy or Josh Reed are best kept on benches.

Sleeper Pickups – Will Heller, Seattle’s tight end, will grab the touchdown pass. Early in the season, these guys are more valuable because protection schemes aren’t settled. Heller has the ability to be a big play guy.

Might Want to Bench – The Bills receivers, Maurice Morris, and Seattle’s receivers. Nate Burleson hasn’t proven anything to make him deserve a start at all, let alone as a number one guy.

New York Jets vs. Miami

When the Dolphins Pass – It’s going to be a struggle early on for Chad Pennington. His receivers are far from game-tested and his protection is going to have him on the move early. The Jets have a lot to prove defensively, but Pennington’s receivers will decide this game. Don’t expect more than 210 yards and maybe a touchdown. It’s very likely to see an interception or two as well. Ted Ginn is getting the hype, but Derek Hagan could be the leading receiver here. Anthony Fasano is a good option at tight end this week in deeper leagues.

When the Dolphins Run – It’s painful typing that Ricky Williams is a good play in his first game back, but he is the lone true weapon in the Miami offense. The Jets were not good against the run last season and didn’t change enough of their personnel to make that change. Williams will score the Dolphins two touchdowns and add 75 yards for the Fins.

When the Jets Pass – This is what Brett Favre was brought in to do. 275 yards sounds right with two touchdown passes. Don’t look for an interception in this game from Favre, Miami doesn’t have the guys in the defensive backfield to get the pressure on him to make poor decisions. Without Jason Taylor, there is no pass rush right now. Miami will quickly find out that the preseason and regular season are very different. Both Jericho Cotchery and Laveranues Coles should be active.

When the Jets Run – Personally, this becomes a matter of total preference simply because of how you view Thomas Jones. The Jets will likely grab one on the ground, but Miami’s run defense is going to be the strength. With Joey Porter in the lineup, it will allow them to push up the front seven and close off that aspect to any team’s game. Jones looks to be good for around 65 yards. As an RB2 or flex play, he’s playable.

Sleeper Pickups – None really, Miami’s offense will need to do some work and the Jets key players should all be active.

Might Want to Bench – Hopefully you don’t have to start Chad Pennington or any of Miami’s receivers. They should all be on the bench.

Kansas City vs. New England

When the Patriots Pass – Let’s cover this up front, regardless of the preseason stats, this is a game built for the Patriots offense. You don’t think that Tom Brady is going to come out to destroy the Chiefs and make a point, then you haven’t followed this team. Brady will be good for well over 300 yards and three touchdowns. Expect two of those to go to Moss, who should be good for 100 yards, and the other to Wes Welker, who should check in for 75 yards himself.

When the Patriots Run – Probably what the Chiefs hope they will do. Maroney should get himself 85 yards and a touchdown. Lamont Jordan could be good for some time and get himself 50 yards and a touchdown as well. Basically, an offensive explosion for New England, because I just don’t buy that the Patriots are as bad as the preseason showed. All bets are off if Brady doesn’t play, so let’s keep that in mind.

When the Chiefs Pass – The Patriots got no pressure all preseason against any team’s defense and allowed first possession scores in all four games. Dwayne Bowe and Tony Gonzalez should be active, Bowe as a WR2 or WR3 option. Brodie Croyle likely won’t set the world on fire with his passing, but could be good for 230 yards and two touchdowns against the New England defense. Expect the Patriots to make him throw.

When the Chiefs Run – With a young quarterback, the Patriots defense will key on stopping the run, which could spell a long day for Larry Johnson in Foxboro. Johnson will struggle to crack 75 yards and a touchdown. I still expect the Chiefs to put up more than 20 points and Johnson will be a big part of that.

Sleeper Pickups – Jabar Gaffney and Jordan will be solid options for fantasy owners looking to ride the Patriots' coattails.

Might Want to Bench – The Chiefs defense and Brodie Croyle. There are better options in every single format. Larry Johnson falls outside our top-20 running backs this week.

Tampa Bay vs. New Orleans

When the Bucs Pass – Just not a great situation overall. Jeff Garcia is going to struggle to put up more than 200 yards against a tough Saints defense that is going to draw on the buzz of a strong home crowd. The Bucs' receivers should virtually be left alone.

When the Bucs Run – They’ll need to control the ball to keep themselves in this game, and that will come down to how effective Earnest Graham is against the Saints front seven. Best bet here is for 70 yards, but no touchdowns.

When the Saints Pass – Drew Brees is in for a big day and is one of the top-three quarterback plays of the week. Brees will throw for 300 yards and three touchdowns against a Bucs' defense that still hasn’t quite figured out their base schemes. Marques Colston and Robert Meachem are all decent plays in that order. Colston will grab a touchdown pass and 90 yards. A healthy Shockey will add to this attack. If healthy, look for him to snag a red-zone touchdown pass.

When the Saints Run – Most of the damage will be done through the air and Reggie Bush will be a part of that. Bush won’t crack 100 yards individually, but could combine for that total with a touchdown. Deuce McAllister is only an option for deep league players. He’s in line for 60 yards, but no touchdowns.

Sleeper Pickups – Robert Meachem seems to be the best play of the secondary Saints receivers. 85 yards isn’t out of the question and he’ll get the touchdown if Shockey isn’t available.

Might Want to Bench – Anyone on the Bucs. Let’s see what Graham can do in a full-time work load before even calling him out as more than a flex option.

St. Louis vs. Philadelphia

When the Rams Pass – Marc Bulger is going to be missing some weapons against the Eagles, who have always been good against the pass. He’s a second-rate quarterback this week that should only be started in two-QB formats. There just aren’t many options once you get outside of Torry Holt. Expect 230 yards, a touchdown, and a pick from Bulger. Holt should catch the TD pass and be good for close to the 100 yard mark.

When the Rams Run – The big issue here is whether or not Jackson is healthy. The bet here is that he is going to start and play well. He isn’t likely for a TD against the tough run defense the Eagles will put out there, but pencil him in for 80 yards on the ground and another 40 through the air.

When the Eagles Pass – The secondary of the Rams isn’t very strong, and that makes McNabb one of the better plays of the weekend. Put him in the top-five of quarterbacks. The Rams were killed through the air last season, so expecting 270 yards and two touchdown passes from McNabb sounds about right.

When the Eagles Run – Brian Westbrook is the man. That’s about all you need to know. There are very few every-down backs in this league, but he is one of them. The Eagles will use him in a variety of ways, and he should be good for close to 140 combined yards and at least one touchdown.

Sleeper Pickups – Brian Leonard, in case Jackson isn’t healthy.

Might Want to Bench – St. Louis defense, any Rams receiver outside of Holt, Marc Bulger, DeSean Jackson.

Houston vs. Pittsburgh

When the Texans Pass – This isn’t your mother’s Steelers’ defense. Yes, it’s still very good, but the cornerbacks are going to be dealing with two talented and tall receivers in Jones and Johnson. Matt Schaub isn’t a reliable starter for fantasy teams, but he’ll provide the numbers for these receivers and tight end Owen Daniels. Look for Schaub to go for around 225 yards with a couple touchdown passes. Johnson is obviously a solid play for over 100 yards and a touchdown. Owen Daniels grabs the other.

When the Texans Run – It could be ugly. Rudi Johnson spurned them for Detroit, leaving them with an aging Ahman Green and a young Steve Slaton. Slaton will have a lot to prove and be given the chance to early on. Green is likely good for around 60 yards with Slaton grabbing 40 on the ground and the same through the air.

When the Steelers Pass – No doubt the Texans' defense is better than last season, but this is still a matchup owners should exploit. Big Ben should be good for 250 yards himself and a couple touchdown passes. I think he’ll neutralize with an interception, but it still makes him top-ten material. Santonio Holmes is an every-week player and Hines Ward should be good in a flex role.

When the Steelers Run – Willie Parker will certainly bring in the yards, but couldn’t crack the end zone last season but two times. Rashard Mendenhall has the reputation of being fumble prone, but I’d expect him to steal the one rushing touchdown the Steelers score. Parker is good for 90 yards, but nothing in the end zone.

Sleeper Pickups – Owen Daniels was likely drafted in all leagues, but if not, he’s a solid option. Watch Ahman Green as well, because Steve Slaton could prove very valuable.

Might Want to Bench– Heath Miller. Yes, the Steelers use their tight ends in the red zone effectively, but the wide receiver matchups for Big Ben are too good to be true.