NFL Picks Week 13: Jets Vs. Patriots and 3 Other Best Bets

Week 13 already, and I'm beginning to panic.

Fantasy football playoffs will be starting soon, college conference championship games are today, Army-Navy next weekend and before you know it we will be reading about which commercials were the best during the Super Bowl.

Why the panic, you ask? The end of the NFL season is near, and I can't stop it. To make matters worse, who knows when the next season will begin? The impending lockout, according to some, is inevitable.

So all I can do is pray that Sundays slow down and hope that sometime between now and the end of the season, Roger Goodell will find a way to extend the season to 18 games, maybe even 20.

In a perfect world, baseball's opening day would begin immediately after the Super Bowl—in April.

This is my first ATS post on Bleacher Report. I am a documented 91-79 through 12 weeks on a reputable pick'em site.

Before you read any further, it's important that I tell you that betting line statistics (teams' records ATS) are insignificant to me—they prove nothing.

The fact that in the Jets-Patriots game the road team is 18-7-1 against the spread doesn't matter to me. Tom Brady’s struggles versus a Rex Ryan 3-4 defense are a bigger factor, and that’s what I research.

I use statistics in my selection process, but stats you can find on NFL.com, not Bodog.com.

Do you think the spread is set based off what happened when a team was a home favorite two years ago in a prime time game?

Betting lines are created to ensure equal amounts of money are bet on both teams playing in the game.

According to a few major betting sites I've researched, a betting line is set according to six major factors: overall talent, technical analysis, public perception, location, current form and injuries.

Notice ATS trends aren't listed. It could be perceived that public perception is what odds makers want you to believe, so hence all of the useless ATS numbers and trend reports generated are really for the people taking your money, not you.

These reports will create indecision, and that's what the people collecting your money are hoping for. They hope you look at the numbers that don't matter instead of the numbers and intangibles that do.

Obviously injuries are the biggest line-changers. Most teams that suffer a major injury on Sunday will not have a betting line until late Tuesday or Wednesday.

This is a tough weekend to handicap. Divisional rivalry games are always tough to analyze. Almost anything can happen and usually does.

I know the chances of Commissioner Goodell extending this season are nonexistent, but here are four teams that have better odds of making you some extra holiday cheer.

Atlanta -3 at Tampa

It's throwback weekend in Tampa

Tampa will honor its past this Sunday when the 9-2 Falcons visit Raymond James Stadium on Sunday. This is a critical game with major playoff implications for the Buccaneers.

Tampa Bay will wear the creamsicle uniforms and place the franchise’s first coach, John McKay, into the Buccaneers' ring of honor.

The Bucs are 7-4, and another loss could put their playoff chances into major jeopardy.

Sunday is the second meeting with the division-leading Falcons. In their first meeting the Bucs would rally back from 14-0 and come within two yards of beating Atlanta at the Georgia Dome.

LeGarrette Blount failed to convert a 4th-and-1 from the 2-yard line with 2:37 remaining. Falcons safety Thomas DeCoud would stuff Blount, giving the Falcons the ball back. Michael Turner converted one first down and Atlanta ran out the clock, preserving the 27-21 win.

The Bucs, down by 14 at one point, used big returns on special teams to get back into the game. Bucs return man Michael Spurlock would have 209 return yards on four chances.

The Buccaneers are a desperate team. At 7-4 they have not beaten a team with a winning record this season.

I like desperate teams with winning records playing at home.

The last time Freeman and the Bucs wore the creamsicle jerseys, they upset the playoff-bound Green Bay Packers in Week 9 last season. Josh Freeman, making his first NFL start, would throw three touchdowns, leading Tampa Bay to a decisive 38-28 victory.

Look for Freeman to throw two touchdowns and Blount to push one in, and expect return man Spurlock, who got close last time, to cash in.

I like the karma of a throwback game, I liked the creamsicle jerseys and I liked John McKay and his witty one-liners.

McKay was once quoted as saying following a loss “We didn't tackle very well today, but we made up for it by not blocking.” Neither will be a problem for Tampa on Sunday against Atlanta

I look for the Falcons to trip up at least two more times this season. Sunday’s game in Tampa will be one of them. Look for Tampa to get their first win against a winning team and stay in the playoff hunt.

Buccaneers 30 Falcons 24

Oakland +13 at San Diego

Ezra Shaw/Getty Images

OAKLAND, CA - OCTOBER 10: Nick Hardwick #61 at center and the rest of the San Diego Chargers line up against the Oakland Raiders at Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum on October 10, 2010 in Oakland, California. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)

Thirteen points in any divisional matchup is just too many points to give up—unless you’re the Raiders and have lost 13 of the last 14 to your hated division rivals.

The Raiders have struggled mightily in their last two games. They have been outscored 68-20 in consecutive losses, at Pittsburgh and home to Miami.

The Raiders have just one offensive TD in their last two games, as Bruce Gradkowski and Jason Campbell have combined to throw just one touchdown and four interceptions.

Oakland’s rushing attack, which was once averaging 154 yards per game and ranked second in the NFL, has dropped to fifth, gaining just 76 yards in two games.

Back in the Week 5 victory over San Diego, aside from scoring a rushing and passing touchdown, the Raiders would need two blocked punts and fumble recovery runback touchdown to secure a 35-27 win.

Filling in for the injured Gradkowski, Campbell would manage the offense well, throwing for 159 yards and one touchdown with no interceptions.

Campbell will once again step in for the injured Gradkowski. Gradkowski was placed on IR this week, not only ending his season but probably his stay in Oakland as well.

The Chargers are the No. 1-ranked defense in the NFL, and after picking off Peyton Manning four times in Indy last Sunday, they have to be licking their chops awaiting the arrival of Campbell and a struggling Raider offense.

Philip Rivers threw for 431 yards in the loss earlier this season in Oakland, but it was his fumble with a little over three minutes remaining in the game that sealed the Chargers' fate. His fumble was returned by Tyvon Branch for a touchdown, putting the game away.

The average margin of victory in the Chargers' 13-game winning streak against the Raiders was 14.5 points. Their loss to the Raiders in October was by their own doing. Mistakes and poor special teams cost San Diego the football game.

Having begun their late season surge, you can bet the Chargers will be looking for revenge when the Raiders come to town.

Although the Raiders have yet to lose in the division (3-0), a loss on Sunday will probably end their playoff hopes.

Take the Chargers and give the 13 points. Heated divisional rivalry or not, San Diego will dominate this one.

Chargers 37 Raiders 17

Pittsburgh -3 at Baltimore

Mike Tomling leads the Steelers into Baltimore to face John Harbaugh's Ravens

The AFC North figures to be decided tomorrow night when Pittsburgh and Baltimore do battle for the 33rd time. The Steelers lead this series 19-13.

At stake for tomorrow's night winner and barring any unforeseen December collapses is the AFC North title and a first-round bye come playoff time.

These teams are as evenly matched as fraternal twins. They aren't identical but if you were watching film without logos and colors, they would be hard to tell apart.

They have split the last 10 games, and each of the last three meetings have been decided by only a field goal.

The Steelers do have the added pressure tomorrow night. The Ravens beat them earlier this season in Pittsburgh. Ben Roethlisberger was absent, serving the last game of his four-game suspension.

Roethlisberger had to watch from home as Joe Flacco hit T.J. Houshmandzadeh with 34 seconds remaining for the game-winning touchdown.

The Steelers had seemingly won this game with a goal line stand. On 4th-and-2 with only 2:44 left, Joe Flacco overthrew Anquan Boldin on a corner route in the end zone, giving the ball back to the Steelers on downs.

Pittsburgh failed to get a first down and run out the clock. After a punt and a holding penalty on the Steelers' kicking team, the Ravens would get great field position at the Steelers 40. With one timeout, Flacco needed just four plays to find Houshmandzadeh for the winning score.

Picking this game is simple in its complexity.

Both teams will play smash-mouth defense, and running the ball figures to be a daunting task, although the Ravens are vulnerable to the bigger downhill-style runners like Steelers running back Rashard Mendenhall. See Peyton Hillis and Mike Goodson's numbers against the Baltimore front seven.

Mendenhall did score two touchdowns in the October meeting.

The lack of a running game hurts the Steelers more. Roethlisberger is nursing what is reported to be a broken right foot. The Steelers will need to try to establish Mendenhall early, taking pressure off of Big Ben and protecting his foot.

Roethlisberger will have his chances downfield against a suspect Ravens secondary. The speedy Mike Wallace should get behind the Ravens secondary once or twice. Roethlisberger must take advantage when he can.

Ravens offensive coordinator Cam Cameron seemed to neutralize the complex blitz package of Dick LeBeau's defense in October.

Flacco was sacked just once and was hardly pressured. In the previous three meetings Flacco had been sacked 12 times.

The Ravens kept an extra tight end in to block, and if you watch the game-winning touchdown pass to Houshmandzadeh, Todd Heap is clearly seen picking up a blitzing Troy Polamalu, allowing Flacco to step up and make the throw.

Another superstar missing in October’s game that figures to factor in tomorrow night is Ed Reed.

Reed was on the PUP list in October, and the ball-hawking safety will be looking for a chance to pick off the ailing Roethlisberger tomorrow night.

The biggest key to this game is the injury report. For the Ravens, Le’Ron McClain, Dwan Landry and Michael Oher are listed as questionable. Only McClain figures not to play.

The Steelers' injuries are well-documented, and last week in Buffalo they looked like a beat-up, tired football team in the second half. The Steelers would allow Buffalo to come back from a 13-0 deficit.  Steelers kicker Shaun Suisham would save his new team, kicking the game-winner in overtime.

Flacco gets a little more comfortable each time he plays against the complex 3-4 defense of LeBeau, and I believe the Ravens will do whatever is necessary to protect Flacco at home.

The Patriots may have shown a weakness when they beat Pittsburgh a few weeks back. Short to medium over the middle passes are something the Ravens execute well, and the Patriots showed it can be done with great success against the Steelers.

I like Anquan Boldin, Derrick Mason, Todd Heap and T.J. Houshmandzadeh over Hines Ward, Antwaan Randle El, Mike Wallace and Heath Miller. If Flacco stays upright tomorrow night, he will find them, and the Ravens could win easily.

It's Ravens-Steelers, and nothing is ever easy. Whomever has the ball last will probably win.

I can’t believe as a superstitious diehard Raven fan I’m making this pick. A real football fan knows what I've just done to my team.

I like Baltimore at home, and I like them to cover the spread—although it wouldn’t surprise me to hear Al Michaels saying with less than a minute remaining, "Roethlisberger hits Hines Ward for the go-ahead touchdown."

Ravens 27 Steelers 17

New York Jets -3.5 at Patriots

Sexy Rexy not kissing any rings here but respect runs deep

When the regular season ends, there will be no doubt as to what team earned what position in the standings. All four AFC powerhouses will have played each other. The Jets, Patriots, Ravens and Steelers will have all gone head to head.

The only team without a win in this four-way tournament is Pittsburgh. They have lost to Baltimore and New England at home but will host the Jets at Heinz Field in two weeks.

The Jets beat the Patriots in Week 2 at home. They dominated the second half on both sides of the ball in the 28-14 win. Jet young gun Mark Sanchez would throw three touchdowns behind 220 passing yards.

Tom Brady struggles against Rex Ryan's 3-4 defenses, and he did in the Week 2 contest, throwing two interceptions and getting shut out in the second half. These struggles date back to Ryan's days as a coordinator in Baltimore. Ryan frustrates Brady by blitzing him constantly.

The only game in Brady's 2007 record-setting season he didn't complete at least 50 percent of his passes was against the Rex Ryan Ravens defense.

Ryan may have a very unique problem Monday night, an issue you can believe genius Bill Belichick knows he has.

What does Ryan do with Darrelle Revis? The Patriots can effectively take Revis out of this game by not doing one thing differently. With no Randy Moss, the issue becomes who does Revis cover?

No matter who Revis covers, you can bet Belichick will run him all over the field Monday night, taking him away from where Brady wants to make the throw.

There is really no difference between Wes Welker, Deion Branch or anyone else Belichick throws out there for him. Revis and other Jets defenders will need to watch the short to deep middle of the field.

With small quick receivers like former Jet Danny Woodhead and big, strong, pass-catching tight ends like Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski, the Patriots are converting third downs at a 45 percent rate.

The Jets secondary suffered a major setback when safety Jim Leonhard broke his leg in practice Friday. Leonhard had surgery today and is out for the year. Leonhard was good at patrolling that same middle to deep part of the field the Patriots like to exploit.

Revis and his island may be a floating one come Monday night, protecting the deep middle of the field Leonhard used to roam.

The Patriots' execution is second to none in the NFL, their game plans flawless at times. Every once in a while a team comes along with a little better talent where it matters and bullies you. For the Patriots, on Monday night, it's the Jets.

The only edge the Patriots have over the Jets is at quarterback and head coach. Even if it is Brady and Belichick, it won’t be enough to beat New York on Monday night, even in New England.

In a matchup of this magnitude, the Patriots' defensive ranking of 31st scares me. Mark Sanchez has a weapon he didn't have in the first meeting: Santonio Holmes.

Patriots DBs Devin McCourty and Kyle Arrington are improving but still learning on the job. Sanchez and Holmes should take advantage, as New England is giving up 289 yards per game through the air.

Brady hasn't lost a home regular season game since 2006.

The Jets have won some games they probably shouldn't have this year, winning three straight games on their last offensive possession. Ryan is not Belichick, but he has made sure his team learned from those games, and on Monday I expect the Jets to put it all together. Take the Jets to end Brady's streak at home.

Jets 24 Patriots 20