College Football 9/1/08: More Picks, Analysis, and Recaps

A special thanks to the Hawkins family.  Dan and Cody, you guys just did us proud as you led the Buffalo to the smooth cover out in Denver.  While the game was never in doubt, the cover got a little dicey.

We are now at 15-7 overall and +12.5 units for the season.  What can you even say about that?  That is a good season for a lot of people out there, but Week One isn’t even over yet.

I know most of the “pros” only like to pick a few games, but since we’re just real fans of the game over here, we follow all of the teams, and it gives us enough info to hopefully get an edge.  That’s how we managed to lay off some of those ones we weren’t so sure of as well.

What else can we say about Rich Brooks?  While I liked UK a ton, I only played them a little, and of course money lined them as well at +140.  Since I didn’t post that here, I don’t count it in the totals.  I looked at my win/loss statement this morning for the weekend, and trust me, it counted there.  I can live with that.

Back to Brooks: I have said for the past 15 years that this guy is one of the best out there, and he proved it once again yesterday.  The Wildcats looked nothing like a team that had lost its starting QB.  The defense dominated and the offense owes them one, as the safety by Louisville cost them the shutout.

I can’t criticize any team that pulls off first half cover, second half cover, and game cover, all as money line dogs.  I love college football.

There are still two more games this week, so let's get to them.

Fresno State +4 at Rutgers (Monday 4 pm EST): No play

I didn’t leave this game off my weekly picks because it was being held on Monday.  I left it off because it isn’t one that I felt strongly enough about to put with my recorded picks.  If you need to know, I am leaning Fresno in a game that could easily go either way, at least on paper.

We have two great coaches and two of the better teams.  I don’t think for a second Ray Rice was the entire Rutgers team, nor do I think that Greg Schiano’s best team or talent is behind him.  I think the exact opposite, and Rutgers will only get better and better.

Speaking of Rice, that’s all they really lost.  For those who haven’t noticed, they’ve added the “defensive genius” tag to Schiano, and he’s earned it.

Fresno has conference title hopes and BCS crashing on their goal list for this season.  Pat Hill has been at it a while now, and he just continues to get it done with whatever he gets to work with.  He’s a real no excuses kind of guy, and I respect the heck out of that.  Fresno is just a monster on the road and is 4-1 against the number.

Since you probably read through all of that, I’ll just add I’m leaning Fresno because I like the points in what should be a close game.  While I said Rutgers lost Rice, they also lost their kicker, who bailed them out more than a few times the past few years.

I think there is a little value with FSU, and I may take them on the money line as well if I even touch the thing.  I’ll try and talk about it in my video later today.

Tennessee at UCLA +7 (Monday 8 pm EST): See Mitch’s commentary video for 9/1/08 for pick here

I’m going to write about this one a little bit before I post my video.  OK, you got me—I haven’t even shot the video yet.  Can you tell I don’t use a script and it isn’t a Hollywood production?  Hopefully the quality gets better as I get a chance to work on it.

In any event, I wanted to write about this some to accompany the video because there is so much information to cover.  For me to lay it all out on video would be just too much.

I have tried watching some of the other bloggers' eight-minute-plus videos out there where they do like 10 games, and I can’t make it past game one or two.  That’s why I keep mine pretty quick.

The trends are strong for both teams in this game for success.  The Vols are 4-0 vs. the spread in their last four and 5-1 against the spread in their last five non-conference games.  UCLA is 4-0 in their last four games overall and 4-0 against the SEC in relation to the point spread.

While UCLA has QB issues, I wouldn’t discount the Bruins for a second.  They have an NFL-quality coaching staff and always have talent.  For the Tennessee Volunteers, Phil Fulmer seems to always be on everyone’s hot seat list, but this guy just continues to fly under the radar and put together winning seasons.

I am going to save the rest for the video.  If you read this later and this sentence is gone, that means I’ve edited something I felt was important that I left out of both places.

I have another good read I wrote about a topic that concerns everyone, but I was going to wait until the new site was ready.  Since I’m not sure when that is going to be, I’ll just post it later.