SEC Championship 2010: Breaking Down Who Will Win Auburn-South Carolina and Why
The SEC Championship Game has frequently been a near-automatic bid to the BCS Championship, and this year is no different. Auburn, ranked first in the nation, will face 9-3 South Carolina, ranked 19th in the BCS.
It is no question that Auburn will be in the BCS Championship Game if they win. If South Carolina pulls off the upset though, they would get a bowl game in January, and that would change everything in the bowl picture.
The two teams already faced in a game on September 25, which was won by Auburn, 35-27. The two teams have since evolved, and are ready to face each other in a game that may be closer than anticipated. The position strengths and intangibles will be looked at to see which team will end up the victor in this weekend's contest.
Quarterbacks
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Auburn's quarterback, Cam Newton, has been playing well enough to garner plenty of Heisman talk. His numbers aren't the flashiest (2,254 yards and 24 touchdowns), but his passer efficiency rating is good for second in college football. That being said, as much as people discuss Denard Robinson's rushing totals, Newton has 1,336 rushing yards, which is tenth in the league for all players. As a result, he can make plays with both his arm and feet.
South Carolina's Stephen Garcia is a good quarterback in his own right. His 2,646 yards and 18 touchdowns are solid numbers, and he actually had a great game in the first matchup against Auburn; he's capable of doing it again.
No question that Auburn has the QB advantage though.
Running Backs
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Auburn's running game goes primarily through Cam Newton. Despite this, the Tigers do have other solid running backs to take the load off. Freshman Michael Dyer has been solid, running for 886 yards. Sophomore Onterio McCalebb has been good as well, getting nine rushing touchdowns along with 733 yards.
While Auburn spreads the wealth in the running game, South Carolina goes though one man, freshman Marcus Lattimore. Lattimore, who was good enough for coach Steve Spurrier to modify his gameplan, rushed for 1,114 yards and 17 touchdowns this season despite missing a game. He struggled against Auburn, and you can bet he's looking to break out and have a much stronger game.
Are many good backs better than one very good back? I'd say so, advantage to Auburn.
Receivers
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Much like with the running backs, this is a case of quality vs. quantity. The Gamecocks run passing plays primarily through sophomore Alshon Jeffery, who has been great. His 1,351 passing yards are good for fifth in the league and first in the SEC. Over a third of the passes thrown end up in Jeffery's hands.
Auburn, however, again has multiple receivers that they throw to. Three receivers have five or more touchdowns, and three have 400+ yards (not the same three). The main two targets are junior Darvin Adams and senior Terrell Zachery, who have 692 and 583 yards, respectively. In Adams' case, it's a step down from his near-1,000 yard performance last year.
I give the edge to South Carolina here.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Rushing Defense
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If there's one thing both teams do a good job of, it's preventing huge days from running backs. Auburn is tenth in the nation in rush defense, while South Carolina is fifth.
The player Auburn needs to watch out for is likely Melvin Ingram, junior defensive tackle who has eight sacks on the year. Conversely, South Carolina needs to watch out for junior Nick Fairley, who has 9.5 sacks. Both teams allow under 110 yards a game, so both teams definitely work well as units.
The difference maker is that Auburn has allowed 16 rushing touchdowns, while South Carolina has allowed nine. This gives the advantage to the Gamecocks.
Pass Defense
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As good as both teams are against the run, both teams are bad against the pass. Auburn is ranked 98th and South Carolina is ranked 107th. Both teams have single digit interception counts, and there are no names on either side that incite fear.
As long as they can make the stops when it matters, both sides will be fine. Until then, this is a push.
Special Teams
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When it comes to returners, neither team is a threat when returning punts. On kick returns however, the Tigers have cornerback Demond Washington, whose 983 return yards are sixth in the league, along with a touchdown.
On punting, South Carolina averages 37 yards a punt, good for 49th. Auburn, however, is ranked 102nd, with under 34 yards. Since punts are probably going to be few and far between, the decider is between the kickers. Auburn's Wes Byrum is 15 of 19 this season and hasn't kicked a field goal in three weeks. South Carolina's Spencer Lanning, also the punter, is 15 of 20.
Auburn has a narrow advantage here thanks to Washington.
Coaching
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Both Steve Spurrier and Gene Chizik are great coaches, as we've seen. That being said, Spurrier has been in this situation before as a coach in Florida. Chizik is only in his fourth full season, the first in which he'll be playing in a major bowl games. Beyond that, Spurrier knows how to tweak a team based on the strengths on it. He's a pass happy guy, yet let his freshmen running back run wild this year.
Advantage goes to South Carolina. You can't bet against a guy who's won six SEC Championships.
Intangibles
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Since the game will be played at a neutral site, home field advantage will not come into play. Instead, one has to look at what they're playing for. The Auburn Tigers are playing for a shot at the National Championship. They were cheated out of it back in 2005, and you know that the staff is drilling that into the players. This is their time, and they control their destiny.
South Carolina's drive comes from somewhere entirely different. They've been finishing the season with winning records, but haven't made that jump to the SEC title. They're playing not only to score the upset, but for respect. Many are probably writing them off in this game like they did against Alabama. They won then, they could win now.
If South Carolina wins, they will be going to the Sugar Bowl. If they lose, as a four-loss team, they're likely out of the January bowl picture entirely, depending on who is selected for each game. In the battle of playing in a good bowl games versus playing for the national title, you have to give the advantage to the one wanting the BCS title game, which is Auburn.
Conclusion
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While it is not impossible for South Carolina to get the upset, it would be very difficult to see happen. Auburn has more weapons, more to play for, and while South Carolina has certainly improved in two months, so has Auburn. They've destroyed opponents, come back from behind and won, and look to win here.
That being said, it will be a fairly close game. Do not expect a blowout just because South Carolina lost three games.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
