College Football Predictions: Arizona Over Oregon and Possible Week 13 Upsets
Well, Wal-Mart has Butterball turkeys on sale for 98 cents per pound and I couldn’t care less.
Cranberry sauce in a can or homemade? Who cares.
Stuffing or dressing? It doesn’t matter.
Whipped cream or ice cream? Sweet potato or pumpkin? The identity of that stuff floating around in Aunt Susie’s Jell-O salad? I don’t care one iota.
Are the sheets clean on the in-laws' bed in the guest room? Should I pull that bag of parts out of the turkey’s butt and can you put that china in the dishwasher? Frankly my dear, I don’t give a damn.
Thanksgiving is completely overshadowed by what may well be the greatest two days (plus one evening) of college football this year.
Indeed, who cares if she fried it, smoked it or baked it when we have Texas A&M vs. Texas, Arizona vs. Oregon, Auburn vs. Alabama, Boise State vs. Nevada, LSU vs. Arkansas, Michigan vs. Ohio State, Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State, Michigan State vs. Penn St, South Carolina vs. Clemson, Florida State vs. Florida and more all laid out on the holiday table.
This year's feast will best be enjoyed as leftovers which are consumed in a recliner in front of a high definition television bringing us the best football weekend of the year.
The following slideshow attempts to pinpoint six times when we will spit our leftover turkey across the room as we reel back in shock from an improbable upset. Our pie will slide, our jellied cranberry sauce will slap against the wall and it will be messy both on the field and in our living room.
Happy Thanksgiving.
And here’s hoping no yappy relatives show up and talk all the way through the game you were trying to watch.
6. Nevada over Boise State
1 of 6
@ Nevada, Friday 10:15 PM EST
Boise State -14
Overall Series: Boise State leads 11-4
No. 4 Boise State is still perfect while No. 19 Nevada is 10-1 with only a loss to Hawaii upsetting their run at flawlessness.
The Bottom Line
Ok, even I am sick and tired of discussing Boise State and the possibility of them being knocked off. The Broncos have simply taken care of business, in a decisive fashion, against each of their opponents since their victory vs. Oregon State back on September 25th.
However the game against Nevada begs to be mentioned in an upset capacity because really statistically it offers the best opportunity for Boise State to be dethroned since their game vs. the Beavers in Boise.
Once again, at least on paper, Boise State has the clear advantage in every aspect of this game. In fact the only major statistical category that the Broncos rank out of the top five in is rushing yards where they are a dismal No. 20 overall.
We know that Nevada can score some points as they rank No. 4 overall in scoring offense. The Wolf Pack’s strength offensively is on the ground where they rank No. 4 nationally compared to through the air where they rank No. 50.
Odds are that they will move the ball against the Broncos but they will also give up points to a Boise State offense that has operated like a machine.
Nevada has been somewhat successful vs. the run (No. 23) but ranks a woeful No. 105 against the pass giving up 250 yards per game through the air.
Boise State will have to make some mistakes and allow the Wolf Pack to score while Nevada will have to miraculously perform on defense for Boise State’s quest for perfection to end in Reno.
5. Michigan over Ohio State
2 of 6
@ Ohio State, Saturday 12PM
Ohio State -17
Overall Series: 57-43-6
No. 8 Ohio State is 10-1 overall coming off a thrilling three point win on the road vs. Iowa while the Wolverines are 7-4 and fresh off a 48-28 beat down at the hands of Wisconsin.
The Bottom Line
“The Game” as it is sometimes referred to is arguably the greatest current rivalry in college football. Ohio State vs. Michigan must be included in the actual definition of rivalry and therefore we know, as football scientists, that anything can happen.
The Buckeyes have bested the Wolverines in the last six contests which is Ohio State’s longest win streak in 106 year history of the rivalry. The last time Michigan was victorious in Columbus was in 2000.
This game is fairly simple on paper: can Michigan score a bunch of points on Ohio State’s stifling defense and can the Wolverines' defense manage enough stops to result in an unlikely victory?
Though we know Michigan will have to engineer some degree of defensive production, the Wolverines need to score a great deal of points early to beat Ohio State.
In its seven wins Michigan averaged 43 points per game while in its four losses they averaged only 26 points per game.
Denard Robinson, who has amassed a stunning 3767 yards this season (through the air and on the ground combined), will need to light Ohio State up in order for the Wolverines to have a chance.
From where I’m sitting this upset seems more likely when considering the Buckeyes' last two performances. Ohio State needed two fourth quarter pick sixes to beat Penn State (in Columbus) and had to rally in the fourth quarter against Iowa to come away with a three point win. And don’t forget the questionable “no call” where the refs seemingly overlooked a clear “spearing” personal foul that could have altered the outcome of the game.
Are the Buckeyes primed for an upset?
If Michigan can get ahead early by a bunch of points and force Terrelle Pryor (who looked shaky vs. Iowa) to win through the air the Wolverines will have a chance to snap the Buckeyes streak and hurl them out of the Big 10 title discussion.
4. Texas over Texas A&M
3 of 6
@ Texas, Thursday 8PM EST
Texas A&M -3
Overall Series: Texas leads 75-36-5
No. 17 Texas A&M is 8-3 and fresh off a dazzling five game winning streak over the likes of top ranked Oklahoma and most recently Nebraska. The unranked Longhorns are 5-6 and before beating Florida Atlantic last Saturday had dropped four straight conference games.
The Bottom Line
This is the first time in the Mike Sherman era that A&M has felt such a high degree of confidence going into its traditional season closer vs. arch rival Texas.
Indeed, these are two teams on different planets in terms of momentum and confidence and the Aggies have a clear advantage in both valuable commodities going into this game.
However Texas over Texas A&M is not a stretch as the Longhorns are still a very talented group of athletes that seem to have only lost direction and leadership.
Throw into the mix that this is a rivalry game that could save people’s jobs. Ahough a win wouldn’t “save” Texas’ season it would bring them back to .500 and secure Bowl eligibility.
The statistical facts are fairly simple: the Longhorns more than likely won’t be able to run the ball vs. the Aggies with a great deal of success (A&M ranks No. 18 vs. the run) but they may be able to finally find some success through the air (yes, I just said that) against an Aggie pass defense that has clearly struggled (No. 97).
This may be Garrett Gilbert’s opportunity to finally shine, or maybe only to momentarily reflect the sun off a foil lined turkey pan. Either way, the Longhorns will have to find a way through the air.
Defensively Texas is still a very solid squad ranking No. 10 against the pass and No. 32 against the run. Mistakes have had more to do with UT’s struggles than has a porous defense.
If Texas can shut down A&M offensively (especially on the ground where the Longhorns have been badly burned), manage even minimal points and eliminate ridiculous errors they can and will beat the Aggies in Austin.
Another factor worth considering is whether or not A&M suffers any emotional hangover from their thrilling defensive triumph over Nebraska last Saturday night in College Station.
Though many would argue that the Aggies were greatly aided by the officiating crew in their win over the Children of the Corn, history tells us that no such help will be available in Austin which many consider to be the original home of the “homer”.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
3. South Florida over Miami
4 of 6
@ Miami
Miami -12
Overall Series: Miami leads 2-0
The Hurricanes are 7-4 and fresh off a 31-17 defeat at the hands of streaking Virginia Tech while the Bulls are 6-4 coming off a disappointing one touchdown loss vs. Pitt.
The Bottom Line
With all the talk regarding the lack of a leader in the Big East, the work of Skip Holtz in his first year at South Florida may be overlooked.
Despite only returning three starters from 2009’s stellar Bulls defense Holtz has managed to put together a defensive unit that has led South Florida to a six win season with a chance for more.
Even with Jacory Harris returning at QB, Miami may struggle offensively against a stifling Bulls' defense that ranks No. 19 vs. the pass and No. 20 vs. the run.
The key for South Florida will be their ability to move the ball against a Miami defense that has been successful against the pass (ranking No. 5) but struggled against the run (ranked No. 83).
The Hurricanes allowed 185 yards rushing in their loss to Virginia and 262 in their loss to Virginia Tech.
USF has three backs that have combined for 1236 yards on the season (Moise Plancher, Demetris Murray and QB BJ Daniels). These three and the offensive line may be the difference in this game.
Though Bulls' QB BJ Daniels has gone 119 for 206, 1457 yards and nine touchdowns he has also thrown 12 picks. Obviously, the Bulls can’t afford mistakes on the road against Miami but Daniels will need to get something going to allow the run game to properly flourish.
A highly visible victory vs. Miami in Sun Life Stadium may be just what Skip Holtz needs to begin to recruit successfully in Florida.
2. Arizona Over Oregon
5 of 6
@Oregon, Friday 7PM EST
Oregon -17.5
Overall Series: Oregon leads 21-14 and is 11-5 vs. Arizona in Eugene.
The Ducks are flying high at No. 1 and a perfect 10-0 while No. 21 Arizona is 7-3. Both teams are coming directly off a bye week.
The Bottom Line
It is fairly obvious on paper why Oregon is the overwhelming favorite vs. Arizona.
The Ducks are No. 1 in scoring offense and No. 11 in scoring defense while the Wildcats are No. 49 in scoring offense and No. 12 in scoring “D”.
The outcome of this game hinges on the Arizona defense shutting down a Ducks' offense that has quacked its way through its PAC-10 schedule.
The interesting angle of this potential upset is a quick look backwards to who Oregon has played on their way to a perfect 10-0 mark.
Only two of the Ducks’ nine opponents (taking FCS Portland State out of the mix) have posted winning records in 2010 (Stanford and USC) while the other seven combine for an underwhelming 27-48 cumulative record.
Of additional note is the average ranking offensively and defensively for the Ducks' nine FBS opponents: 70th overall in offense and 73rd in defense. This definitely puts some perspective on Oregon’s lofty statistical standings in 2010.
I would be surprised if Oregon loses this game especially given that it will be played at home at Autzen. However, Arizona has a good defense and an effective passing attack and these could combine to shock a Ducks team that definitely looked beatable at Cal two weeks ago.
1. Auburn over Alabama
6 of 6
@ Alabama, Friday 2:30 EST
Alabama -4
Overall Series: Alabama 40-33-1
No. 2 Auburn is the undefeated underdog traveling to Tuscaloosa to face No. 11 Alabama (9-2).
The Bottom Line
A rivalry game, especially against two hostile in state foes, is always exciting but this year’s Iron Bowl is absolutely amped up to a new degree of hype. The undefeated Tigers being led by the Heisman hopeful and controversial Cam Newton face off against Nick Saban and his defending National Champion Crimson Tide featuring current Heisman trophy winner Mark Ingram.
Though Auburn is ranked No. 1 and is undefeated they are four point underdogs in the 75th playing of the Iron Bowl.
If the Tigers are going to beat Alabama and move one step closer to a National Title they will have to find a way defensively to shut down the balanced Crimson Tide attack.
You can say what you want to about Cam Newton and his very stellar abilities but Auburn’s “D” will likely be the difference in this game.
The Tigers' defense ranks No. 59 overall in scoring, No. 15 against the run and a dismal No. 112 against the pass.
If Auburn can’t stop Alabama, especially through the air, it won’t matter how many yards Newton and company manage on a tough Crimson Tide defense (that ranks No. 3 overall in scoring).
Interestingly, the highest ranked team coming into the Iron Bowl is 40-10 in games played since 1955.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
